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As Reet implies, it’s one’s ability to accurately judge a horse’s chance that counts. Knowing price expressed as a percentage of any horse is only useful if you can accurately guage the horse’s winning percentage chance in comparison.
Mike
Exactly Mike,
But I think Reet knows what I mean, he’s just trying to wind me up by making out he doesn’t understand. At least I hope that for his sake that is what he’s doing. Otherwise he hasn’t got much chance of finding value.
Value Is EverythingOf course there are horses at say 10-11 that you think should be 1-2 or 1-3 but its about how much money you want to bet i am not a big better so these prices are no good to me plus the fact that when they get beat you just end up feeling cheated,i am quite happy betting at odds of 3-1 or more i get more fun that way.
Leither,
you don’t have to back horses at odds-on. But knowing the percentage each price equates to will help any punter find value at whatever price range he/she prefers.
Value Is EverythingWhat you do Ginge is work from an odds compilers tissue,so you dont actually make your own book from scratch do you?
Why is it that just because someone is incapable of doing something, they think everyone is incapable? Get it through your head it is my OWN book.
I work my tissues out from scratch TAPK. I don’t work from anyone else’s odds, be it odds compiler or otherwise.
After I’ve worked the 100% book out and look at bookmakers odds, there may (from time to time) be one or two that are far bigger or shorter than my book. I then go back and have a look if there is something I’ve missed, sometimes there is, sometimes there isn’t.
I NEVER ALLOW MYSELF TO BACK ANYTHING MY ORIGINAL TISSUE DID NOT MAKE VALUE IN THE FIRST PLACE. As that would go against my idea of value.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
What you got to remember markets are formed from the public opinion and everyone learns to read form, some are better than others but regardless if you’ve got 3 or 4 million people a day in the country spotting the same edge how are you going to find your value? this is why you need to come up with something different like Speed Ratings, not many people have performed the art succesfully which is why I still see a decent betting opportunity for me in the future.
There is only one rule in how to be a successful gambler.
VALUE IS EVERYTHING
ie
Know prices as percentages and percentages as prices.Be good at evaluating form.
A 1/3 shot is value if you believe it has a better than 75% chance of winning. A 16/1 shot is value if you believe it has a better than 6% chance.
Ginger you are absolutely about VALUE but have’nt you over-simplified ? You know it can’t be everything although it plays an essential part,a VERY BIG essential part. All of the recent posters in the last couple of days are right of course which illustrates the importance of listening to opinion and then arriving at your own.I start trying to find the value in eliminating the favourite as poor value if there are other factors which suggest that other runners may represent better value. When you reluctantly turn back to the favourite because you have eliminated the others for various reasons then you decide if there is any real value there.
I’m sure you all know already….it is that in-built computer we all have which tells us if the forecast price is better or worse than the price you would assess yourself. Even then if it is better you may wish to avoid it because it is a tad too generous. I apologise if old John appears to be teaching his grandma how to suck eggs but I’m just prattling on because it shows how many diverse opinions there are in pursuit of one common cause. I would put the process of elimination very very highly in the process of arriving at VALUE ! Elimination has served me well over the years….I once used this to very real effect in finding the Lincoln Winner in the mid 70’s….it was the fittest horse in the race,one of the lightweights in heavy conditions forecast days before the race (the only horse sure to act on the heavy)
and a truly crazy price based on actual soft ground form.
I took 200-1 and the price steadily shrank as the rain continued to fall, and in the race itself it never had an opponent to throw down a challenge. It was a stand-out and the name was Southwark Star. I did the same thing
when King Con won the Scottish National at 100-1 !Get on Barafundle 4/1 now with VC in the 1:35 Newbury tomorrow. I make it a 5/2 (28%) chance.
Value Is EverythingGet on Barafundle 4/1 now with VC in the 1:35 Newbury tomorrow. I make it a 5/2 (28%) chance.
Whys that then Ginge?
I work my tissues out from scratch TAPK. I don’t work from anyone else’s odds, be it odds compiler or otherwise.
Right then Wise one,this will test you! Give me the 1st 3 in the betting for the 3,40pm at Newbury on Saturday according to the RP entries for the race!
Betting is fun yeah you get losers but you get winners as well.I nearley won scoop last year and i was gutted but
Imperial Commander won gold cup was on at 25/1 i was happy again that is how it goes.Gord let me know what you think of my latest ante post horses as well.
- Total Posts 17716
As Reet implies, it’s one’s ability to accurately judge a horse’s chance that counts. Knowing price expressed as a percentage of any horse is only useful if you can accurately guage the horse’s winning percentage chance in comparison.
Mike
Exactly Mike,
But I think Reet knows what I mean, he’s just trying to wind me up by making out he doesn’t understand. At least I hope that for his sake that is what he’s doing. Otherwise he hasn’t got much chance of finding value.
Oh, I understand fine, Ginger – but I’m not the one putting the cart before the horse, so to speak.
It’s pointless spouting odds and chances without learning firstly how to properly evaluate those chances; ergo, value certainly isn’t everything.
God help any newcomer to betting and this board, who thinks all he has to do to make a living is learn a little arithmetic.I work my tissues out from scratch TAPK. I don’t work from anyone else’s odds, be it odds compiler or otherwise.
Right then Wise one,this will test you! Give me the 1st 3 in the betting for the 3,40pm at Newbury on Saturday according to the RP entries for the race!
Today Ginge,its obvious who will be fav!
Here"s my Hennessey book Ginge,-
6/4fav Diamond Harry
5/1 Weird Al
7/1 Burton Port
10/1 Denmanneed i continue,personal bias has got to affect your book!
I have not worked out my book for the Hennessey yet TAPK.
A lot will depend on the ground.
But if it is genuinely on the soft side of good – (I say genuinely because I don’t take the official report as read, though Newbury are one of the better courses for going decriptions). Then I will be making Weird Al favourite.
However, as I’ve said in the Hennessey thread, Denman is likely to be backed by the public and shorten. That is, as long as Nicholls is not too negitive on betfair / The Morning Line. So it is not a good race to judge anyone on. Not that you should judge anyone on one race alone.
Anyway, I don’t do my tissues for what I think the betting WILL BE, I do it for what I think the betting SHOULD BE (to 100%).
Got to work out more of tomorrows Newbury card….
Value Is EverythingBetting is fun yeah you get losers but you get winners as well.I nearley won scoop last year and i was gutted but
Imperial Commander won gold cup was on at 25/1 i was happy again that is how it goes.Gord let me know what you think of my latest ante post horses as well.
One knowhere followed by five winners on the Scoop for me last year.
For me, the trick is not to even look at the odds until you’ve made your selection then once the prices are up, see if you consider your selection to be value.Get on Barafundle 4/1 now with VC in the 1:35 Newbury tomorrow. I make it a 5/2 (28%) chance.
Whys that then Ginge?
Because it is (sorry) WAS unbelievable value.
Now down to top price 11/4.
Value Is EverythingThis should really be in another section TAPK, but you did ask:
1:35 Newbury
Buena Vista ran well over fences at Wincanton, possibly slightly flattered by racing at or near the slow pace. Very best form is at Cheltenham and on good ground (may be being prepared for repeat Festival bid).
Racing Demon Ran well when second last time, not getting any younger, isn’t that consistent and stable could do with being in better form.
Oscar Park was never in good form last year over fences. Well handicapped on very best form (years ago) but now almost 12 years old.
Quickbeam ran an awful race on reappearance. Asking him to improve enough to beat an exceptionally well handicapped horse is asking too much. Races prominently.
Barafundle finished second to Grands Crus at Haydock, beat the rest easily after travelling well for a long way. This is a quick reappearance, but if in the same form will be difficult to beat. If he had longer to get over that run I’d make him a 13/8 to 7/4 shot. Similar conditions, may not be quite as soft today. Carries head high but seems genuine and has won his share of races.
Galaxy Rock took a bad fall over fences last time. If over that stands a chance for his in form yard if the fav is below par.
Markington ran well enough last time but rarely puts it all in, inconsistent.
National Trust non-runner.
Gala Evening stands a chance on the book (again if fav is below form) but (if memory serves) trainer is yet to have a winner, most running poorly.
Mostly Bob is interesting, weakened late last time (2m4f) possibly down to fitness. Unexposed and could improve. Best form so far on a sound surface though did win a bumper on heavy.
Miss Overdrive ran well before rider fell off at the last. Is a bit temperamental.
Estates Recovery might be one at a price. Not jumped fences at all well and reverts to hurdling. Showed improvement when last seen over hurdles and is worthy of at least a saver at massive price.
Cotswold charmer is the one that could give the favourite a race. Improved last time despite not having the race run to suit. Lightly raced and more progress virtually certain, but needs to find a good bit more to trouble a spot on Barafundle. Saver bet.100% Book
Barafundle 5/2, Cotswold Charmer 5/1, Mostly Bob 9/1, Galaxy Rock 14/1, Racing Demon 14/1, Estates Recovery 14/1, Buena Vista 15/1, Miss Overdrive 20/1, Gala Evening 25/1, Markington 28/1, Quickbeam 33/1, Oscar Park 33/1Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Personally Ginger, I wouldn’t touch Barafundle today, even at a piece higher than 4/1.
He had a hard race last week, and all his races prior to this have been at well spaced intervals. There’s little doubt they’re running him today before his new mark kicks in, but they’re probably guessing as much as we are, as to how he will run.
Good luck with your bet, though I think you might need it.
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