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My few little tips for Punting
* If you wanna make money don’t bet on Horse’s….money cant be your sole motivation in this Sport or else you go broke.
* Avoid Handicaps like the plague unless its the Hennesey or National. Big betting handicaps are okay but the day to day stuff is as close a some robbing the stake from your pocket
* Keep your powder dry if the racing is very poor…Maiden Hurdle’s etc are very poor betting position. Betting on races like Novice races and conditions aswell as graded races are my fortay and find it much easier if you consider a niche. They may not be a conditions or novice race on any card during the midweek so it focuses the mind when it does come along
* Back Ruby Walsh
in the races i mentioned aboveNEVER BACK FAVOURITES,AND NEVER BET ODDS-ON
Nonsense, I’m afraid. Your points about value are well-made if self-evident. The idea that something ceases to become value when it passes an arbitary point of even money to odds-on is basically bonkers.
10-11 Barcelona to beat Hereford Utd anyone??
Mike
" Those who who say, never back odds-on, are only doing themselves a disservice. " – Sir Peter O’Sullevan.
I don’t usually divulge my bets/stakes – but I have had 14 bets since Saturday. 3 losers, 11 winners ( seven of which were odds on
). Suffice to say that those odds-on chances have more than contributed to enhancing the profit column. Selectivity and temperament are key.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
My few little tips for Punting
* If you wanna make money don’t bet on Horse’s….money cant be your sole motivation in this Sport or else you go broke.
* Avoid Handicaps like the plague unless its the Hennesey or National. Big betting handicaps are okay but the day to day stuff is as close a some robbing the stake from your pocket
* Keep your powder dry if the racing is very poor…Maiden Hurdle’s etc are very poor betting position. Betting on races like Novice races and conditions aswell as graded races are my fortay and find it much easier if you consider a niche. They may not be a conditions or novice race on any card during the midweek so it focuses the mind when it does come along
* Back Ruby Walsh
in the races i mentioned aboveCouldn’t disagree more with the first three points – particularly the first one! Your last one has some credence…
Mike
NEVER BACK FAVOURITES,AND NEVER BET ODDS-ON
Nonsense, I’m afraid. Your points about value are well-made if self-evident. The idea that something ceases to become value when it passes an arbitary point of even money to odds-on is basically bonkers.
10-11 Barcelona to beat Hereford Utd anyone??
Mike
Yes Mike,quite right but you won’t get 10/11 for that will you ? Although correct your observation is a little out of context when it comes to horses which are only flesh and blood,and surely the road to the poor house for the average betting shop punter. As for odds on I have a small 5 timer on tonights footie which incudes Man U,and Spurs who are odds against.
Works for me Betlarge….may not interest anyone else but its a way i keep myself interested but not addicted.
I certainly don’t want to go down the line of Problem gambler’s. It becoming a epidemic at the moment and i certainly have more to live for than a 3m handicap chase around hexham at 2.30 on a Monday. I would crack up sitting at home all day betting…not for me
NEVER BACK FAVOURITES,AND NEVER BET ODDS-ON
Nonsense, I’m afraid. Your points about value are well-made if self-evident. The idea that something ceases to become value when it passes an arbitary point of even money to odds-on is basically bonkers.
10-11 Barcelona to beat
Hereford Utd
anyone??
Mike
Leave us out this!
NEVER BACK FAVOURITES,AND NEVER BET ODDS-ON
Nonsense, I’m afraid. Your points about value are well-made if self-evident. The idea that something ceases to become value when it passes an arbitary point of even money to odds-on is basically bonkers.
10-11 Barcelona to beat Hereford Utd anyone??
Mike
Yes Mike,quite right but you won’t get 10/11 for that will you ? Although correct your observation is a little out of context when it comes to horses which are only flesh and blood,and surely the road to the poor house for the average betting shop punter. As for odds on I have a small 5 timer on tonights footie which incudes Man U,and Spurs who are odds against.
Of course you are right John, it’s a ludicrously exaggerated point that I make simply for effect (not quite sure what competition those two would meet in but I’m sure it would be worth a trip to Edgar Street!!) The point I’m making here is that if a horse goes off at a shade of odds-on when you think it should be 2-7, why would you not have a bet?
The idea that a horse can be eminently backable at Evens but a no-no at 10-11 is one I struggle with. What counts is surely your value calculation, not the actual price.
Mike
NEVER BACK FAVOURITES,AND NEVER BET ODDS-ON
Nonsense, I’m afraid. Your points about value are well-made if self-evident. The idea that something ceases to become value when it passes an arbitary point of even money to odds-on is basically bonkers.
10-11 Barcelona to beat
Hereford Utd
anyone??
Mike
Leave us out this!
Go on then TB, just for you…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-ze42I6NEo
Mike
Absolutely right Mike.What is more impotant is your concept of value…I’m afraid I sometimes forget that there are intelligent people out there and get a bit too indignant…but then again I’m afraid I’m virtually saddled with the typical betting shop idiot who wouldn’t have a clue what either of us were talking about. My comments were really about the typical guy who rushes in on a Saturday morning, pulls out a £50 to back a 4-5 chance in the blind belief that he’s going to pay for his afternoon drinking session because it’s odds on and certain to win…OH DEAR !
There is only one rule in how to be a successful gambler.
VALUE IS EVERYTHING
ie
Know prices as percentages and percentages as prices.Be good at evaluating form.
A 1/3 shot is value if you believe it has a better than 75% chance of winning. A 16/1 shot is value if you believe it has a better than 6% chance.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Value is
nothing
– if one cannot evaluate form (‘cept a mantra for the uninformed, of course
).There is only one rule in how to be a successful gambler.
VALUE IS EVERYTHING quote]
You have thrown this line out several times now Ginge and i"m not comfortable with it!
Since when was a 1/3 shot Value? I once had a lucky 31 where my 1st 4 selections all won at 7/1,(Polar boy), 16/1 (Macs fighter)
5/1, (Indian Ridge), 4/1 (?) and my last selection was a horse called Zero Watt at 1/3,i put him in as a banker just to give me another 15 bets on top,the bloody thing lost and made a big difference to my returns!I"ll tell you what value is,its when you spot a good horse and you think you can see it running in a certain race in the future so you take an Ante-Post price on it,i could give you dozens of examples where it has worked for me as cometh the day your horse is only a fraction of the price you took,thats value even if it loses you got the value! Where i succeed is if i back a horse at 90"s 70"s 50"s 33"s or whatever and it wins i in effect have got to back a lot of losers to be a loser,bearing in mind my stakes are relative! Thanks to being able to lay horses i can also guarantee a profit as soon as the stalls open,i dont do it very often but i have watched a race or 2 where i have got a £100 profit win or lose,strange feeling but satisfying because you have to be a juggler of numbers,now thats value! What you do Ginge is work from an odds compilers tissue,so you dont actually make your own book from scratch do you?
Of course there are horses at say 10-11 that you think should be 1-2 or 1-3 but its about how much money you want to bet i am not a big better so these prices are no good to me plus the fact that when they get beat you just end up feeling cheated,i am quite happy betting at odds of 3-1 or more i get more fun that way.
Since when was a 1/3 shot Value?
When you have correctly calculated it should be a 1/5 shot, 2/11 shot etc.
I once had a lucky 31 where my 1st 4 selections all won at 7/1,(Polar boy), 16/1 (Macs fighter)
5/1, (Indian Ridge), 4/1 (?) and my last selection was a horse called Zero Watt at 1/3,i put him in as a banker just to give me another 15 bets on top,the bloody thing lost and made a big difference to my returns!Unlucky…but irrelevant to the value argument.
Mike
You are right of course Ginge, but this is hardly some stunning revelation. The ‘table’ of price to percentage you often refer to is not really a table, rather the straightforward calculation of 100/(price+1) or just 100/price if price is of the newer exchange-type.
As Reet implies, it’s one’s ability to accurately judge a horse’s chance that counts. Knowing price expressed as a percentage of any horse is only useful if you can accurately guage the horse’s winning percentage chance in comparison.
By the way, don’t mean to patronise, it is perfectly obvious that
you
are aware of the above, it’s just that is hasn’t perhaps been expressed clearly for others.
Mike
There is only one rule in how to be a successful gambler.
VALUE IS EVERYTHING
ie
Know prices as percentages and percentages as prices.Be good at evaluating form
.
A 1/3 shot is value if you believe it has a better than 75% chance of winning. A 16/1 shot is value if you believe it has a better than 6% chance.
Reet,
If a punter is no good at "evaluating form" then his assessment of value will be wrong. Therefore, a punter who is no good at at evaluating form doesNOT
get
VALUE
.
Value Is Everything
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