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What a farce yesterday was
Medermit Runs out
Conditional disgraces himself by geting a horse beat
No fav won at Naas
No fav won at Bangor
2 at Hunt
1 at Kempton
1 at Southwell…4 Favorites won after 30 odd races….what a shcoking day for backers.
Betfair SP’s for the British meetings.
3.55, 3.55, 24, 3, 7.85, 7.56, 3.4
2.06, 8.14, 6.03, 9.58, 1.94, 8.1
4.2, 10.12, 2.35, 10.64, 7.4, 5.7, 30.99, 13
2, 5.7, 6.6, 12, 7.47, 17.5, 9, 18
How many 11+ winners are there amongst that lot? It doesn’t look all that bad to me.
And only one winner from the first 3 meetings yesterday was noted for an improvement in form.
It’s no surprise there aren’t many favourites going in when so many of the horses on the AW and over jumps have been coming back from layoffs, switching codes etc.
I think the only way you can make money through betting is laying horses, or backing horses ante post.
Just an adjunct to the conversations about the Stewart Simpson book. The guy didn’t exist, he was a fantasy made up by a unnamed pulp writer.
Not sure if there’s a lesson there somewhere.
Mike
"I always give the same answer to anyone who asks why i never get seriously involved in National Hunt racing. I tell them to go to a jump meeting and wander to one of the fences while racing is in progress. Along come the horses and over they go – twigs,, branches, leaves, mud, horses and jockeys flying around everywhere. To me it is a frightening sight. Get up close to it and you will soon change your mind about putting your hard earned cash down on the outcome of such a precarious business" (Always Back Winners, 1979, P20)
And my favourite ever quote from a racing writer:
"How many times during your gambling years have you been told that you’ll never beat the bookie, or win today, give it back tomorrow. Thousands of times, I’ll wager. But who are these people exactly? The one paced plodders of life. They have no success, courage, or sense of adventure themselves and get their kicks by telling you how wrong you have beem and how the whole world is really a massive conspiracy against the little working man. Dump these people immediately or they will drag you down into mediocrity with them. You will end up chained beside them in some moronic factory all yor life while the boss is living it up at Ascot with all the champagne and birds he can handle." (Ibid P13, Para 2)
Stewart Simpson/Tony Peach/Unknown Pulp Writer etc.
Nothing of any use in there? A fantastic little book.
Horse racing betting is all about discipline. You have to wait for the right horse, the right race and most importantly, the right price.
For me, racing is the most profitable betting avenue. I’d find it very hard to make a long term profit on Soccer, Rugby, Football or Hurling though I’m sure there’s punters out there that achieve it.
Spot on. I’d add specialising to that as well. And I’d warrant that the punters out there who do show a profit from footie, rugby and tennis etc specialise in those areas. The basic principle being the same as in betting on the horses – the bookies have to price up every race/match/event….I don’t have to get involved in all of them. It’s a crucial edge imo.
Stewart Simpson/Tony Peach/Unknown Pulp Writer etc.
Nothing of any use in there? A fantastic little book.
I still use one or two of his pointers when punting on handicaps even now.
Dont care who wrote Always Back Winners i have always enjoyed reading it and the point about finding horses that can quicken late in races has done well for me over the years particularly in handicaps on the flat.
Max,
The first extract could only have been written by a pulp fiction writer with no knowledge of the winter game
The second extract is no more than a largely accurate summary on what Kant may have called a ‘Critique On Laziness’ and is not unique to betting, though is very much typical of the bettor
Therefore neither paragraph – one of which is lazy received wisdom and the other a lazy truism – promotes the mysterious Mr Simpson into the realm of ‘all-time great racing writer’
come fly with the flying dutchman
I can understand why someone could get very disillusioned with betting on the horses having experienced a 11 horse losing run which finally came to end today. Luckily I had built a big enough bank to ride out a bad patch which all but wiped out my profits accumulated prior to the bad run. I admit that I twice departed slightly from my normal method which cost me two winners on successive days, I’ll never do that again. I don’t think anyone can claim to make consistent long term profits these days, I’ve been backing horses since the late 70’s and I’ve never known it as difficult as it is at the moment. I have learned to lower my expectations of winning drastically, currently I hope to accumulate a few quid in time for christmas, I am not very hopeful in view of recent bad luck.
I back mainly win singles 9/4 and above and double up any shorter price fancies. A winning double is a very rare thing at any price. My solitary winner today put me on the road to recovery. I don’t chase losses by doubling up on my basic stakes, quite the opposite, I lower my stake to gradually recoup over a period of weeks, it’s the only way. Increasing stakes is the road to disaster. If and when my bank grows back to it’s previous balance, I will revert to my normal 5% of bank stake.
What does amaze me these days is the ease with which a big priced winner will stride past an odds on favourite, they seem to win as they like requiring only a shake of the reins, it’s astonishing and it happens a few times a day. There is a heck of a lot of disguised form out there and it’s a heck of a job tryig to unearth it, and you’ll get no help from tipsters, ratings or market indicators. Many big priced winners do not budge in the market and some will drift significantly.
I am hooked on racing and will soldier on in the hope that I can at least keep my head above water, a difficult enough task in itself.
I certainly am going to start to look at laying in depth.
Just had a quick look at the AW tonights and its a bloodbath.Mind you i need a decent laptop?
Anyone layers on their have any tips or more importantly good laptop advice
Also can anyone irish punter actually confirm are Roulette machines in our Bookies.
I heard their awful across the irish sea.
Maxilon 5
wrote
And my favourite ever quote from a racing writer:
"How many times during your gambling years have you been told that you’ll never beat the bookie, or win today, give it back tomorrow. Thousands of times, I’ll wager. But who are these people exactly? The one paced plodders of life. They have no success, courage, or sense of adventure themselves and get their kicks by telling you how wrong you have beem and how the whole world is really a massive conspiracy against the little working man. Dump these people immediately or they will drag you down into mediocrity with them. You will end up chained beside them in some moronic factory all yor life while the boss is living it up at Ascot with all the champagne and birds he can handle." (Ibid P13, Para 2)
I knew someone who used to say the above. I’m afraid I thought him a little arrogant.
Unfortunately, by the age of 61, he had lost everything. I felt sorry for his wife who knew nothing until their home was repossessed. At one stage he was worth millions.
Throughout history this has been the fate of many an aristrocat (and others) who have gambled their fortunes awayA sense of adventure is the last thing you need when backing horses, plungers always lose in the long term.
Drone, I’ve answered your points in t’Lounge to keep this thread on topic. And its a long answer so pour yourself a winter warmer.
Wallace, that quote’s on my wall. I don’t just use it for horse racing. I once put it in a training manual.
Wallace….your list of variables is incomplete by a long way. I have known that it is a very tough game ever since I started 50 years ago and I believe the game was a great deal more shady in those days. May I suggest that you try to re-assess where you may be going wrong.
For example why do people back favourites when only 30-35% of favs win at any track.This means that you have to average an SP of around 6-4 just to break even, or put another way you may think that you are doing well to select 3 winners out of ten selections…those winners need to be at an average of 5-2 to produce the same return overall as 11-10. are you betting too short ? Are you not putting enough work in to spot winners at a VFM price. VFM is surely one of the most important elements in betting. Other factors high on the list are the going (the softer it gets the fewer are the runners with real chances), also the faster it gets applies to many horses),the draw,the trainers in form,etc etc. When I’m asked about VFM I compare 2 horses who have raced together before. HORSE A is favourite having previously beaten Horse B comprehensively so the SP is going to be a relevant factor. If Horse B is now 12-1 are there any factors which might bring them closer together ? Different distance,draw,going,pace of the race,and numerous other things,including the inference to be drawn from the trainer having another go at a horse which appears to be superior. In the end your skills improve and you get the satisfaction of spotting big priced winners and a real buzz from being on a more level playing field. I’m not trying to sound superior…only trying to help (which is why I’m half way through writing a book).
My first 2 rules are NEVER BACK FAVOURITES,AND NEVER BET ODDS-ON.
Also NEVER sit in a betting shop all afternoon – IT IS A HUGE NO-NO ! Finally you may increase your enjoyment and at least reduce your losses by trying placepots in small unit perms….it changed my success rate enormously.
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