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Is form study worth it?

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  • #243075
    Avatar photoGerald
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    • Total Posts 4293

    If we are talking about the class of the race, then

    Group 1, Group 2, Group 3 and Listed are all Class 1
    Races go down to Class 6.

    Group 1 are the highest races and Class 6 are the lowest.

    If we are talking about the class of the horse, then most horses that have run more than three times have a handicap rating. The scale is 0-140 for the Flat, and 0-180 for the Jumps. The Derby winner Sea The Stars has a rating of 131, and the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Kauto Star has a rating of 186 ( well, the figures 140 and 180 are just notional maximums).

    In most newspapers just the weight carried by horses in h’caps is published, whilst the specialised racing media will concentrate on what handicap rating a horse was running off, and how much that has changed from one race to another.

    These things vary a bit, but let us assume that the top weight in a handicap carries 9 stone 10 pounds, 9-10. If the top weight in a Class 3 race has a rating of 94, then a horse rated 80 will carry 8-10. If the top weight in a Class 4 race is rated 84, then a horse rated 80 will carry 9-6, which is 10 lbs more than in the Class 3 race. The horse has the same rating of 80 but carries more weight because the class of the race is lower.

    I can’t see how one can keep away from betting in handicap races – that is where most of the horses that we are familiar with run. Just be aware that because it is a handicap each horse theoretically has an equal chance to win, so it is usually harder to pick the winner than in a Group race.

    #243085
    laypro
    Member
    • Total Posts 3

    I think that you need to do everything you can to insure that you give yourself the best chance of winning. Form study is a must when placing a bet, also the ability to read between the lines. I never place a bet back or lay without it.

    #243090
    Avatar photoGerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    error (clicked on quote instead of edit, and didn’t notice until posted.)

    #243162
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    Form study ( including draw effect, trainer form, going, course form etc etc ) is certainly worth it but it obviously depends on how good a punter is at interpreting the form which makes the difference in the long term.

    If a punter is disciplined and knows how to read form correctly then the punter will be successful – other’s won’t. It’s as simple as that.

    #243336
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    "If something happens, there has to be a reason for it"

    is a dictum that should be tattooed on every aspirant punter’s forehead, imo.
    Whether your bag is speed figures, handicap ratings, collateral form, trends, sellers on the all-weather, creating a tissue, or simply inside information, unless one begins to understand the reason why things happen, they are always going to be at a massive disadvantage against the better-informed and, whatever one’s speciality, ignoring the basic causes of why horses ran as they did is a minefield no one should enter willingly.
    While I’m sure there are successful approaches not based on form study, I’d take an awful lot of convincing that any couldn’t be improved upon by including it.

    ps to BonnieFilly
    You are about to enter a pool full of sharks.
    Ignore whatever luck you’ve had in the past; your only real defence is not to put money down until you’re sure what you’re doing.

    #243431
    Avatar photoAndrew Hughes
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    • Total Posts 1904

    You are about to enter a pool full of sharks

    More like a garden pond full of goldfish with delusions of grandeur.

    #243432
    Avatar photoGerald
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    • Total Posts 4293

    Andrew, I think Reet Hard is talking about the other punters that one competes against in the betting market, and the bookies as well, rather than members of this Forum.

    #243433
    Avatar photoBUD
    Member
    • Total Posts 98

    You are about to enter a pool full of sharks

    More like a garden pond full of goldfish with delusions of grandeur.

    I see it like that too-

    The only shark" I can find have the ability to past post punt. And other Cheating Schemes. :shock:

    #243440
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 84

    I think form study is the only valid way to try to analyse a race, but I also think that, as most people think of it, more often than not, it’s of no real help. I’m sure that, the more races you try to pick, the more you’ll get it wrong. For me, the skill comes in being disciplined enough to bet only when you’ve really found an edge, which will be reflected in the price of your proposed selection. Where the price is too high for the chance you think it has of winning, back it. Preparation plus opportunity. Opportunity knocks only every now and then, though, certainly not every day, often not every week.

    The nature of your edge may change from race to race. I’m convinced that the American pundit Robert Rowe is absolutely right when he says that there’s no one approach that will crack the handicapping conundrum in every case.

    Put another way, I think it’s as much an art as it is a science.

    Bri

    #243446
    Onthesteal
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    I always ‘study’ form for a few minutes at the most and have done before every bet I have ever had….. and can honestly say that like 99.9% of all punters, that my win-to-bet ratio would suggest that studying form is a total waste of time. Feel free – anyone who feels that it’s possible to ‘dig’ a winner out of the form book – to let me know when you’ve found the holy grail while your dig continues….

    I’ve not got a problem with knowing it’s all shite :D

    #243450
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Andrew, I think Reet Hard is talking about the other punters that one competes against in the betting market, and the bookies as well, rather than members of this Forum.

    Of course I was Gerald; though I believe Andrew was having a sly dig at me, rather than other forum members.
    He obviously isn’t watching close enough! :lol:

    #243453
    Avatar photoAndrew Hughes
    Member
    • Total Posts 1904

    Andrew, I think Reet Hard is talking about the other punters that one competes against in the betting market, and the bookies as well, rather than members of this Forum

    Indeed, so was I.

    There are no sharks in this esteemed Forum, though one does come across the occasional angry piranha.

    #243454
    Avatar photoAndrew Hughes
    Member
    • Total Posts 1904

    I believe Andrew was having a sly dig at me, rather than other forum members.

    Perish the thought, Reet. I just enjoyed the melodrama of your warning.

    #243458
    Onthesteal
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    Hi Doug, thank you for the helpful advice.

    I hope you don’t mind me asking, but just to make sure i am clear about this, do the higher numbers denote higher class or lower class?

    I know i look really thick now, but in for a penny in for a pound. :lol:

    Your method is as good as any BonnieFilly, so I’d advise you to continue with it. :D

    There are probably more ‘sharks’ in my bath tub than people who have made millions from punting the nags on this forum – so there lies the answer, or indeed, the holy grail.

    Why not post a few of your selections in the ‘Daily Lays and Plays’ thread, where those with all the knowledge needed for this game post their selections (usually stark in contrast, mind :roll: ) and we’ll see how you measure up over the course of a week or so? I’ll happily keep score if you can’t be arsed. :wink: :lol:

    #243471
    Avatar photoDrone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6161

    More like a garden pond full of goldfish with delusions of grandeur

    There are no sharks in this esteemed Forum, though one does come across the occasional angry piranha

    :lol: jolly good

    A fat old Koi Carp myself, content to bottom-feed on the detritus that falls my way once cousin goldfish has enjoyed his rough-and-tumble with the sharks and piranhas, all of it over the top of my head :? :wink:

    #243558
    Avatar photoBUD
    Member
    • Total Posts 98

    If its worth it great–If not fine–

    As I was pondering this issue I realized that I just enjoy the process.

    Its fun and relaxing for me–So I do it–

    Plus its Dr recommended :evil:

    Will leave that alone.

    #243724
    BonnieFilly
    Member
    • Total Posts 13

    A pool full of sharks, i must sound like a fish in distress. :lol: :shock:

    Thank you for the kind post Onthesteal, i might just take your offer up at some point.

    You know i’m not completely useless when it comes to form, i know it doesn’t sound like it lol, but even when i choose horses that have never run before i still take certain trainers and jockeys into consideration. Even though i think every or most of the horses have a chance, i have never closed my eyes and picked a horse out randomly. I always consider the age, previous form, trainer, weight and jockey, and i’d like to think i make a somewhat informed decision. I may not always get it right, but such is life. :D

    When i do get it wrong i learn from my mistakes, like when i backed Optical Illusion, he had been stepped up in class and i didn’t take that into consideration. A novices mistake, but hey what do expect from a novice.

    Also i am convinced my picking of Mon Mome for the National was not just luck or coincidence, that is the first time i have ever picked a National horse based on form rather than the name or the trainers name, and the way he jumped last year caught my eye. Besides, that is my only triumph as a gambler, so i need to hold on to it, otherwise i might just pack it in completely and go a little mad. :oops: :lol:

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