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The sportinglife have forecasted Irish Wolf at 10/1. Although they are usually wrong I still think if he was to go off at 7/1 he would be a real good e/w bet. Beaten a head by Inglis Drever and not beaten far by a very well handicapped Halcon Genelardis I think he has a very good chance..
Any thoughts?
Couldn’t agree more. It looks like 9 will go to post (Jazz D’Estruval has a preferred engagement at Haydock) with 4 of them looking like rags. I would worry about Neptune Collonges reverting to hurdles after 2 runs over fences this season. Some horses tend to overjump the hurdles after going chasing and lose ground. This means that Irish Wolf would only have to beat one of either Fire Dragon or Blazing Bailey to place.
I agree too. I’ve had a small interest at 10/1 (Bet365). Irish Wolf is an improving horse, ran well last time and should be happy on good ground. Neptune Collonges has a big task reverting to hurdles and Mighty Man although over an inadequate trip last time was a bit disappointing.
Several horses in with a chance and Mighty Man at his best would probably win but 10/1 Irish Wolf looked too big to be ignored.
The first horse I noted when looking at tomorrow’s card.
Fingers crossed Pricewise doesn’t take the same view.
I fancy a couple at big prices ~ Redemption is still capable of an upset and Fire Dragon has a verdict over Mighty Man at Sandown last year. Odds of 40 and 18 respectively are tempting.
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Quote: from The Market Man on 9:56 pm on Dec. 15, 2006[br]I agree too. I’ve had a small interest at 10/1 (Bet365). Irish Wolf is an improving horse, ran well last time and should be happy on good ground. Neptune Collonges has a big task reverting to hurdles and Mighty Man although over an inadequate trip last time was a bit disappointing.
Several horses in with a chance and Mighty Man at his best would probably win but 10/1 Irish Wolf looked too big to be ignored. <br>
Bit disappointing?<br> Out for a warm up, over an inadequate trip, on the wrong ground, and giving 8lbs to a dual Champion Hurdle winner, what does he have to do to please you TMM?:biggrin: <br> On all known form, and most commercial ratings, he has at least 10lbs in hand of all his rivals, the ground is right, a sound pace looks assured, yet everyone appears to be scratching around for an each way bet which will probably return no more than the even money MM is freely available at. <br>Value seeking gone mad, IMVHO!;)
Reet, even taking the poor visual impression Mighty Man made last time out, the fact that My Way de Solzen was below his best at Aintree last year, the observation that H Daly has had a mediocre season so far, and that several seemingly held horses are happy to re-oppose, suggests that the even money on offer may look poor value from a long term perspective.
More of a laying proposition I think, for those with the balls to play that game.
A watching race though. Nothing has a convincing profile here.
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Quote: from Maxilon 5 on 3:53 am on Dec. 16, 2006[br]Reet, even taking the poor visual impression Mighty Man made last time out, the fact that My Way de Solzen was below his best at Aintree last year,  the observation that H Daly has had a mediocre season so far, and  that several seemingly held horses are happy to re-oppose, suggests that the even money on offer may look poor value from a long term perspective. <br>
Max
Even ignoring the Aintree run, how many MWDZ’s or Golden Cross’s are there in today’s race, how many are running for the place money which exceeds most  winning purses elsewhere, and just how many horses of Mighty Man’s calibre has H Daly got in his stable?<br> Laying horses like MM at evens or greater would need balls of the crystal variety – imo, of course.:)
(Edited by reet hard at 5:20 am on Dec. 16, 2006)
Reet, I just thought Mighty Man looked a bit lifeless last time didn’t ever really travel and just seemed a bit flat.
Agreed at his best he’ll probably win but I just think he’s worth taking on and i think Irish Wolf has better than his bare form to come and conditions will suit.
Time will tell. ;)
(Edited by The Market Man at 6:24 am on Dec. 16, 2006)
The only slight warning I’d offer about Irish Wolf is that he’s been on the go for longer than all his rivals – since April, in fact. He took in a lot of the bigger and better summer handicap hurdles, and the hard races he had in these and several of his starts since then are going to find him out sooner rather than later.
Jeremy<br>(graysonscolumn)<br>
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Oh s**t
e, something went wrong with my post!!:oI meant to say well done reet – simple is often best LOL.
:biggrin:
(Edited by Maxilon 5 at 2:44 pm on Dec. 16, 2006)<br>
(Edited by Maxilon 5 at 6:31 pm on Dec. 16, 2006)
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To be fair TMM, he did disappoint, even though he held on.<br> The soft ground played its part, but more of an issue imo, was the steady pace. He is a horse that needs a good pace and a distance of ground, not guaranteed in many of the better races, and would be vulnerable when meeting better horses than today.
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