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Irish National 2007

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Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 22 total)
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  • #1314
    class tells
    Member
    • Total Posts 207

    cane brake must have a great chance of making his class tell here with only juveigneur near his class improving well all season looks to have a chance

    #50690
    cutlers
    Member
    • Total Posts 5

    beware the stats weight is the factor in this race

    #50691
    DannyDanny
    Member
    • Total Posts 790

    Cloudy Lane for me

    #50692
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    I’m not sure Cloudy Lane wants this sort of trip. Maybe he’ll be ok on better ground but I couldn’t back him over this sort of trip after Haydock.

    #50693
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    I like Juveigneur. And if there’s some rain, I wouldn’t mind a wee sneak at Nine de Sivola.

    #50695
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    I´ve had an interest in Gazza´s Girl in this- novices and mares have a good record and her runs at Cheltenham and previously make me think she´ll stay all day. Possibility she might want it softer, but worth taking almost 20-1 to find out. I´ve also backed Cloudy Lane- DJ may be right, but I´d always forgive an otherwise progressive horse one bad run- he shaped like a typical Hemmings stayer before and after Haydock.

    #50696
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    On his Gold Cup run, Cane Brake is a class apart from these, but the drying ground is a worry.<br>Butlers Cabin however, should thrive on it, and although he had a hard race at Cheltenham, his connections must feel he is fully recovered as he runs here rather than waiting for the Grand National or the ‘Whitbread’. <br>After his exertions in the NH Chase, he will think he is running loose here with 10st 4lbs.

    #50697
    doyley
    Participant
    • Total Posts 567

    Hello,

    Nino de Sivola, and I think ALL IN THE STARS, may well run into a place. ;)

    regards,

    doyley

    #50698
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    How reliable is the Gold Cup form seeing that it was run at a crawl?

    #50699
    Anzum
    Member
    • Total Posts 256

    Although I’m pretty sure a 6 year old hasn’t won the race in the last 10 years, I really like Nine De Sivola.  Has been crying out for this trip over fences, fell when in contention at Cheltenham and I reckon Murphy’s targeted this race.  Has won on good ground so I don’t think it will be altogether inconvenienced and looks a value bet at around 14/1.

    Not sure Juveigneur and Cloudy Lane want this trip judged on certain runs of theirs this season.

    #50700
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Just watching the video off the Kim Muir and the one that caught my eye is Cheeky Lady, currently trading at 40’s on betfair. She’s not been with Colm Murphy long but has definitely gone the right way for him. She’s not easy to make a case for from a handicapping point of view being so far out the weights but there are a couple of things in her advantage. So many of these staying handicaps aren’t run at strong gallops so I think her preference for racing up with the pace will be an advantage. As will her sound jumping, she’s only very small but has a good jumping technique. She has form in similarly competitive races, see her thirds in the Paddy Power and Kim Muir. The clincher is the step up in trip. She was staying on at Cheltenham with her rider not getting to the bottom of her and being by Roselier there’s every reason to think she could progress again for the extra trip. Don’t know much about her 7-lb claimer but looking at the rides he’s had over the last couple of years, he’s booted home his share of winners and isn’t short of experience.

    Extra supply of half-price easter eggs in the JOhnson household if she does the business.

    #50701
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Quote: from davidjohnson on 11:48 am on April 8, 2007[br]How reliable is the Gold Cup form seeing that it was run at a crawl?<br>

    Once again, as with last year’s Derby, probably a lot better than the ‘clockers’ would allow for. God knows why so many think a race has to be run flat out all the way for it to be true form?<br>The best horse in the race won, with the second best horse 2nd, usually a good sign for a start. <br>Of the others, Monkerhostin and L’ami were beaten very similar distances to last year,  Turpin Green ran the race of his life, as he was entitled to on his running-on 2nd to Star de Mohaison the previous season, the only time, his Hennessey flop apart, he has faced such a test.<br>State Of Play, a comfortable  winner of that Hennessey, did nothing to let the form down either, having almost certainly continued the progression shown previously, which leaves us with just Cane Brake.<br>For whatever reason, RPR saw fit to accord him a rating of 161 for his Gold Cup run, the same as his previous highest, but laughable in the circumstances. <br>Whoever compiles these ratings appears to have rated the whole race around this horse, so much so that he has had to give 12 of the 13 other finishers a (+) rating to make his logic fit, yet the horse is obviously improving rapidly, having improved by 21 & 7lbs respectively in his penultimate and previous race?<br>Maybe RPR is a clocker, too?;)

    #50702
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    Im on Well Tuttored ew

    #50703
    non vintagenon vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    I’m with All In The Stars too (e/w).

    I can see the ability to go on the ground being key here so others of interest have to include Dix Villez and Butler’s Cabin at about 14/1 and Oodachee/Omni Cosmo Touch of the rags.

    #50704
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    American Jennie for me. Ran a cracker in last years renewal and showed signs of being just as good this year when 6th to Point Barrow in the Pierse Hcp Ch at LEO in January. Massive price on BF at 75 so worth a few EURO anyway.

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