- This topic has 45 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 6 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
As in previous seasons, this is easily the strongest set of entries you’ll see for a handicap all year.
Not one for a full blown early look, with so many of them in there for Gigginstown, Mullins, and Elliot, and also so many of them booked at Aintree. This falls two weeks after Aintree this year, which also makes it harder to second guess.
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/182/fairyhouse/2019-04-22/725584
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/irish-grand-national/winner
Not sure I need to mention Tiger Roll, I’ve done it enough in the past, but he’s as good as ever, and does look on a lenient mark here. It doesn’t look enough to sway them though, and Aintree looks the plan. He’s at the top of his game, and he’ll be a player wherever he heads in the coming weeks. 14’s is big though. Legend of a horse, should have been in The Gold Cup last week, but the sight of him cantering the whole way round in The Cross Country will live in the memory for a long time. It does look like Aintree though.
The same puzzle is presented with several of his stablemates. Jury Duty looks Aintree bound, while Blow By Blow is a difficult one to assess. He’s been bitterly disappointing, he was certainly one of my big hopes for the season. A season which isn’t done yet. I’m intrigued at him getting kept in at the five day stage for The National Hunt Chase, and I think he might just have something up his cuff. Big price for here or Aintree.
Intriguing campaign for A Toi Phil, and as I said on one of the Cheltenham threads, he’s being plotted for something, I just don’t know what that something is, and part of me thinks Galway Plate. Last years winner, General Principle could be back for more, but he looks like he might just sneak in at Aintree, and I think that’s where his priority is. He was bitterly disappointing at Aintree, and he’s better than that. It hasn’t been discussed much, but I strongly suspect that a few of the yards runners were off colour at the meeting, and no surprise should several of them bounce back. The same goes for Cubomania, one of my big hopes, but bitterly disappointing. He’s miles better than that showing (doubt he’d have beat the winner, even at his best), and he’d be interesting over the trip.
Out Sam was a late absentee last week, and this could be ideal, he does look place material, while the fact that Gun Digger was the Gigginstown representative in the 4 Miler, well that says a lot for me. Was running a nice race when he tipped up.
There’s no way on earth I’m going over every runner here, I’d be at it until next Easter, but last but not least from the yard, we have Campeador. Smashing campaign, just about right for something like this, and most importantly, touch wood, his jumping has improved immensely. He looked a Graded Performer to me earlier in the season, but he’ll come here looking very well treated, and as JP loves this race, he looks a proper live one to me. Big Big Player, if they let him loose here, and I’ve no concerns with this trip.
There’s obviously other Gigginstown candidates, not with Elliot, and the pick of those could be Mortal. He looks on a nice enough mark, has threatened to land a decent race, and he’s not one to take lightly here, from the Joseph O’Brien yard. I don’t think he ran that badly at Cheltenham, and this looks a realistic target.
Of the Mullins entry, Total Recall, and Acapella Bourgeois, look to have had interesting campaigns, and can’t be ruled out with any confidence here. I thought Acapella was slightly disappointing in The Martin Pipe, but he doesn’t look like one to give up on though. Total Recall hasn’t been too bad this year, particularly when he’s been running over trips short of his best, and I’d give him a real chance. Pairofbrowneyes looks a strong candidate, but he’ll surely go to Aintree.
C’Est Jersey is tucked away quietly in there for Mullins as well, very interesting, while Bellow Mome, and Isleofhopendreams shouldn’t disgrace themselves, but if the Wyile owned Up For Review doesn’t go to Aintree, then he’d have to be banker shortlist material. He ticks every box for me, and he certainly makes my shortlist. Would be some compensation for the owner after a horrid Cheltenham.
JP had a much better time of it at Cheltenham, and my early fancy for this last year, Any Second Now, was one of his winners, in The Kim Muir. It was good to see him finally deliver, though he had always been a winner in waiting over fences. Serious chance again here, and hard to be too negative about. He should be bang there, but is short enough in the market. I’d be just as interested in Jerrysback. He was certainly at the centre of plenty of controversy, but if over his exertions, I could see him coming here as one of JP’s main hopes. He actually appeals as one for Ayr, but The Scottish National never looks like being on JP’s radar too often, and I could see Jerrysback make the journey across. Either way, a progressive horse, and one I’ll be following into next season.
As I said, just too strong an entry to take a serious look right now, but some others worth an early mention….
Ramses De Taille – Smashing season, and deserves a crack at this, but will he go to Aintree instead?
Whisperinthebreeze – Outstanding at Leapordstown, and fell to early on in The NH Chase to overlook him here.
Discorama – Deserves a big win, and another who looks to have a live each way chance, if he’s got over his efforts in The 4 Miler at The Festival. Interesting one, but he did have a very hard race.
Big River – Trainer not shy in sending them over here, and she has a good record in staying chases. Eyecatching run at Cheltenham, after a hit and miss season, and just the type to do well here.
Joe Farrell – Scottish National winner, who’s really touch and go to get in at Aintree. Very much one to consider here. Curtis has had some joy in Ireland, and this type of contest is well within Joe Farrells reach, as seen at Ayr. Nicely treated, and one to consider.
I’d like to give this more of a look, but it looks too big a task right now. The Gigginstown masses are really muddying the waters, not to mention Elliot planning to have about ten in this, and ten at Aintree. Who goes where? Matters not helped by the other Mullins runner, and in general, a plethora who could also go to Aintree.
I will have an Antepost in this, but I’m just holding fire right now. Campeador would be my Number One right now, but I just can’t buy the campaign that Blow By Blow has had.
No bet right now then, but this very much the early shortlist.
One of the trickiest initial entries I’ve seen in a long time, and at the prices, I’m most likely to play the JP Pair early, the prices look well wrong…..
Campeador 33’s
Up For Review 16’s
Jerrysback 33’s
Blow By Blow 33’s
General Principle 20’s
Mortal 20’sI’ve taken an early gamble on Up For Review at 16s.
HRI left him on 146, he’s definitely 10 pounds well in on that mark for me and not sure GW will want to risk a decent prospect over the big ones considering his very bad luck at Cheltenham and the bad error this horse made when looking to be coming with a right chance at the third last in the Ultima.
There are some funny entries in this every year; this years being Real Steel + Mengli Khan. WTF?
Mortal is the most interesting horse in this for me- wanted him in the 4 miler at the fez + this trip might be right up his street. Minus last year’s mental going, it normal is decent enough ground which will suit Mortal i feel. The mare he’s out of was good over marathon trips + his Fairyhouse win hinted at stayer.
1Dec18 Fairyhouse (21Gd, RPR 135)
Mortal won his bumper very easily and we loved him. He just couldn’t win his maiden hurdle but chasing was always going to be his game. I’d say he has a big engine. I would say he will be an exciting horse when he goes over a trip – Joseph O’Brien, trainer
Hopefully he’s right!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Kev, Mullins saying he’ll run all his at Aintree, but not giving up the ghost on Up For Review just yet.
Fortuitous win for Cubomania yesterday, but he’s starting to appeal at 40’s, as I think he’d like a trip.
Hope up for review not go here as got him for aintree bob
MORTAL 20/1 i like in this race might add 2more
Sorry mate, can’t remember what channel it was on, but it was over the weekend, someone quoting him as saying all of his that got in, would head to Aintree.
Most of my money back for Pairofrbowneyes at Aintree, but reluctant to put as much of it on him here.
I’ll have a few quid at the 14’s, but he’s not as well in here, so I’ll keep a fair bit of it back. Think my main bet on the race will be after final decs, and will be either Mortal, or if declared, Campeador.
Pairofbrowneyes 14’s
Two stand out to me in this from the Mullins camp. Bellow Mome at 20-1, and Isleofhopendreams at 25-1.
I’ve bet Isleofhopendreams, but I will wait till next week for Bellow Mome.
Another horse who interests me a lot is Whisperinthebreeze, who fell early at Cheltenham, but before that had been very impressive at Leapordstown, and is my second selection, also at 25-1.
2 horses I’m immediately drawn to. Discorama looks one of the better novice chasers this season and his mark of 149 could be robbery (it certainly would have been if he’d gone for the Ultima). Tout Est Permis would be fascinating if turning up here. Has a shade of Our Duke about him in terms of progression. You wouldn’t call him well handicapped on bare form but the trip was likely inadequate last time. I’d rather see him in the Punchestown Gold Cup though (where he would be much fresher than the Cheltenham horses bar Kemboy). Real Steel is a horse I like but this would be a completely different test for him. Can’t imagine he’ll go here. Cubomania has question marks about the trip but he’s a horse I really like and probably has some juice in his mark. Just A Sting will definitely be on the shortlist, if he gets in.
Not a race I like to play ante-post and my long-term fancy for this race – Kaiser Black wasn’t even entered (handicapper has butchered him a bit regardless).
Can’t see pass Any Second Now, unfortunately he’s also fav so win with William Hill (Boosted odds) is my bet.
Going for 4 wins out of 5 Nationals
Elegant Escape : Chepstow
Tiger Roll : Aintree
Takingrisks : Ayr
Ms Parfois : MidlandsMy track record not great but recently managed to find the winner a few times. Probably jinxed him now
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.I’m hoping that the National didn’t take too much out of Jury Duty. He didn’t
get much more than halfway round before Robbie Power was unceremoniously shipped out the side
door. He was travelling well at the time, and after having been held up at the first he was
getting back into things. I’m hoping I can recover some of my ante post losses here, and as
long as he doesn’t suffer any adverse reaction to his visit to Aintree I think that the 12/1
with Bet365 is worth taking.Tout est permis for me
Think he is developing into a proper grade 1 chaser
And if I’m right he should go close in this
My second bullet is shady operator
Flew home to beat ballyward off level weights at punchestown in December, ballyward subsequently reversed the form convincingly but shady operator gets in here carrying just 10 stone which must give him a huge chance
So iv had
Tout EST permis 12/1 e/w
Shady operator 16/1 e/w
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.