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I just can’t have it that eagle mountain is going to win this and is a huge lay imo at odds on. that said something needs to improve a fair bit as he does have the best form to date. im quite keen on Fabres runner was wondering what everyone elses thoughts were.
Given that you concede that Eagle Mountain "does have the best form to date", what is your reason for being so against him?
I just don’t think he’s good enough, I could be proven wrong but my impression is that he was a precocious individual, further forward than most and is less open to improvement than to some of the horses in the race. If he was really an odds-on chance why would O’Brien be going in mob handed again.
My sentiments precisely Pru. I was expecting logical reasoning for concluding Eagle Mountain a "huge lay" but sadly none was forthcoming.
my apologies my posting was a little rushed earlier, technically supposed to be at work, was really more after others opinions on the subject.
I think you can oppose Eagle Mountain easily enough at the odds despite his pretty strong claims.
I am no fan of the Fabre horse – Royal And Regal – on the form book. A defeat by Anton Chekhov and a narrow success in a Listed race do not set my heart racing.
The form of the other French horse – Shamdinan – looks better by in the region of 7 lb, and Royer-Dupre’s horse promises to be at least as good at 12f. I have him second in on my figures.
Al Shemali is arguably a bit over-priced at 30 on Betfair, though he could well be playing for just the minor places.
Not sure how you can say he is not good enough.He has the best form in the race and continues to improve with ever run. For me he has not been given the best of rides in his last 3 races,he could of been 2nd in the guineas if his rider had not choose to weave though the field and had followed the winner.I will be very surprised if he is beaten with fallon back on board
i thought he got a very good ride in the derby, he was ridden to get second from the moment authorized flew as there was no way anything was going to catch him so you cant criticise the ride. he has strong claims admittedly on the form book. But with 3yo only races i dont believe you can ever take the form book purely at face value unless it is seriously outstanding. Id rather lay at the prices as I believe that one or more will improve significantly.
I think eagle mountain will win because if you watch the derby although a way back from Authorized he does seem the break away to claim a clear second.
Also he had a different jockey on that day and Fallon has been working him at home. Also with the Fallon factor having one of the best on your back can’t impede his chances can it…
I’m a big EM fan, but even so I thought odds-on was a bit skinny. He’s strightened up to around evens now, and with looking at the form of other market leaders, I think that if he runs his race, which he should with Fallon on top, that he’ll win this without too much trouble. My only concern is that the Curragh’s 1m4f is slightly sharper than Epsom’s based on the past couple of year’s respective Derbys, and I’ve got EM down as a 12-14f horse.
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