- This topic has 97 replies, 22 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 1 month ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Exactly Jonibake.
There isn’t much between Midday and Snow Fairy, but in my opinion Midday just shades it.
Value Is EverythingBut Midday is of a different generation. Officially Sarafina is rated 1lb superior to Snow Fairy although I suspect Snow Fairy might have matched her with Saturday’s effort.
Hype created by Coolmore no doubt, not the horse’s fault. He has been fantastic in every start in the UK. I wish they’d just let him run wothout the pace maker.
Not in "Frankel" class. No, he’s not. So You Think has won 8 Group 1 races against open age at WFA, Frankel has won one, against a horse that turned out to be lame. Frankel’s connections wish they had the same Group 1 record as So You Think..
Exactly Jonibake.
There isn’t much between Midday and Snow Fairy, but in my opinion Midday just shades it.
Ok, you had Midday in mind I was wondering. Agree Midday has the slightly better profile but, as was mentioned, not of the same generation.
Sarfina is very talented but is one of those French mares who never travel more than 20 miles from her own stable and run only in a very narrow set of conditions.
Hard to give her equal status to globetrotting heroines like Midday and Snow Fairy who have put up similar ratings.Looking at Australian form, didn’t see him "idle" there. Although was it just me or did he carry his head a bit awkwardly on Saturday?
I followed his races down under and I do think he idled in some of his races. He didn’t in his 2nd Cox Plate win (he was running on empty having made an early move), and he didn’t win by half a length because he was just so much better than his rivals. but there are races where he was a few lengths in front and didn’t fully extend despite being ridden. When Frankie went for Snow Fairy she surged up and looked set to overtake So You Think, but SYT just pulled out more to my eye.
I think Snow Fairy, who was 100% here unlike in the Nassau, is as good if not a little better than Midday. I think Sarafina’s better than both, but not by much?
He beat Workforce coming from behind in the final furlong.Showing an explosive turn of foot he overtook Workforce and then relaxed.Whereas in Leopardstown he took over with more than a furlong to go.Meanwhile Frankie was stalking him on Snow Fairy,When he finally launched his assault he easily got up to SYT’s quarters but then SYT saw her from the side and quietly left Frankie with a handfull of nothing.Hard as he tried Frankie could do no better than hand the laurals to Heffo.Two heroes vanquished.
I think Snow Fairy, who was 100% here unlike in the Nassau, is as good if not a little better than Midday. I think Sarafina’s better than both, but not by much?
How do you work this out?
Midday has met Snow Fairy twice beat her clearly fair ans square twice, in fact RP comment for Nassau win read "stayed on strongly under hands and heels, readily", won 2L. The comment for Yorkshire Oaks win read "quickened clear over 1F out, ridden, hing left, kept on strongly", won 3L. Now forgive me if I’m reading this wrong but these "actual" not "collateral" form lines prove Midday is clearly superior to Snow Fairy.
Midday has also beaten Sarafina on her own patch over 12F on soft ground by just over 1L. You might argue the Vermeille wasn’t Sarafina’s main target so may not have been 100% ready, but we don’t know that, we do know it was Midday’s 3rd G1 race in about 6 weeks and was being prepared with a tilt at the Breeders Cup in mind.
We are all entitled to our opinions, but the fact remains Midday has had 3 races against the aforementioned very good fillies and won all 3 races, so I think it’s churlish to suggest that either Snow Fairy or Sarafina are in any way superior to Midday.
Makes St.Nicholas Abbey quite useful and a possible outsider for the Arc. He don’t like the heavy ground he recently found in France however.
The trainer indicated before the Vermeille that Sarafina would need the run, and that they weren’t sure she’d stay 12f and was ridden accordingly.
Outside of their one meeting, I’m sure that form through other horses such as St Nicholas Abbey (who needed the run but few would have him ever beating Sarafina) suggest that Sarafina is superior. Sarafina’s unlucky run in the Arc is above anything Midday has ever done and I think proves that she didn’t show anything near her best in the Vermeille. Also, I think there’s a reason Midday rarely runs against the males and struggles when doing so unlike Sarafina.Snow Fairy is tougher to justify and not everyone would agree on her. But jockey and trainer indicated after the race that she was still rusty when meeting Midday, which makes perfect sense to me because she was beaten 9L first up. And if you rate SYT above Midday as I (and many others) do, the Irish Champion run would suggest that Snow Fairy did improve. And I think Snow Fairy improves over 12f while Midday does not, so that’s another thing in her favour.
Midday destroyed Snow Fairy last year but I (and others) think she improved after the Leger when she headed out east. Snow Fairy beat up on weak 3yos before that before Midday put her in her place, but I think she’s been a better horse since, and her more competitive run this year when (I believe) not 100% over the shorter trip of 10f helps justify that.The trainer indicated before the Vermeille that Sarafina would need the run, and that they weren’t sure she’d stay 12f and was ridden accordingly.
Outside of their one meeting, I’m sure that form through other horses such as St Nicholas Abbey (who needed the run but few would have him ever beating Sarafina) suggest that Sarafina is superior. Sarafina’s unlucky run in the Arc is above anything Midday has ever done and I think proves that she didn’t show anything near her best in the Vermeille. Also, I think there’s a reason Midday rarely runs against the males and struggles when doing so unlike Sarafina.Snow Fairy is tougher to justify and not everyone would agree on her. But jockey and trainer indicated after the race that she was still rusty when meeting Midday, which makes perfect sense to me because she was beaten 9L first up. And if you rate SYT above Midday as I (and many others) do, the Irish Champion run would suggest that Snow Fairy did improve. And I think Snow Fairy improves over 12f while Midday does not, so that’s another thing in her favour.
Midday destroyed Snow Fairy last year but I (and others) think she improved after the Leger when she headed out east. Snow Fairy beat up on weak 3yos before that before Midday put her in her place, but I think she’s been a better horse since, and her more competitive run this year when (I believe) not 100% over the shorter trip of 10f helps justify that.Your points are duly noted and I can appreciate what you’re saying, but again for all that you say Sarafina wasn’t 100%, she was 5/2 for the Vermeille, Midday coming in at 9/4. If Sarafina was as unready as you say and connections unsure about the trip, why was she only 5/2? She was opposed by an older filly that had just won 2 G1’s, in the latter beating a dual Oaks winner by 3L. Up to this point although winner of 2 G1’s herself, Sarafina’s form was nowhere that level, in fact Rosanara the one that finished second to Sarafina in the Diane was beaten out of sight by Midday in the Nassau. Sarafina, in my opinion should have been twice the price she was that day, the fact she wasn’t suggests that those "in the know" expected a big run that day and she was ready enough.
As for Snow Fairy you say is tougher to justify, I say impossible to justify, it doesn’t matter how many collateral form lines you peddle out the cold hard fact is, that she has twice been defeated clearly fair and square with daylight beaten them by Midday.
I guess this goes to show So You Think is not the monster everyone seems to think. He twice given the same beating give or take 1/2L to both Sri Putra and Famous Name, he would it seems be about 6-7 lengths superior to two borderline G2/3 horses that in 49 starts beatween them have never won a G1 race.
A top class Group 1 horse yes, but So You Think is not in the same league as Frankel.
Sarafina, Midday and Snow Fairy are all very closely matched with each other. In a fillies and mares race, you would probably favour Midday. If you add colts into the mix, Midday comes out 3rd best. I’m not sure what it means, unless Midday is just distracted by potential mates.
Is there such a thing as a blonde racehorse?
Eclipse that is a GENIUS post! Blonde racehorse!!!! Very funny.
Have to say I largely agree with KD – Midday has twice proven herself a better filly than SF over both 10f and 12f and would win if they met again imo. Sarafina is a bit harder as she looks like she has improved since that Prix Vermeille run.
As for Midday and the males – one could argue that only a mistimed ride prevented her from winning the Coronation and she came so close in the Juddmonte also. I think she will lay the "Blond Racehorse" curse to bed in the Champion!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Given the massive prize money for this year’s Champion Stakes, I have the feeling that if Midday were allowed to take her chance, then she would be lining up against colts better than either St Nicholas Abbey or Twice Over. In both races you mention she got first run on the colts (the style of racing that suits her best) yet was worn down. In the Coronation you could argue that her stamina was over-stretched. In the International, her drifting to the side is quite often an indication of tiredness on what was unsatisfactory ground.
In essence, for Midday to win the Champion, I expect she would have to run at least 3lbs superior to anything she has shown in her career thus far.Does this mean she has hidden reserves of class not yet shown or are we just dreaming and hoping ?
No, it is just a personal assessment of her chances of winning the Champion Stakes. She has never raced at Ascot so the course might result in an improvement but even then I wonder if it would be enough.
If a racehorse peaks every 2 years (Henry Cecil interview some 20 years ago) then you would have to regard her Breeders Cup triumph as her peak to expect her to be approaching her peak condition again. Since then she has improved physically as she might be entitled to do from 3 to 4. If she is coming to her racing peak again, added to her improved physical strength afforded by maturity, then the possibilities of improvement are still there.
It would be interesting to see where Henry places her in the list of fillies he has trained but I suspect some way below Bosra Sham and Indian Skimmer.A top class Group 1 horse yes, but So You Think is not in the same league as Frankel.
Tell me what Frankel has EVER done that is so mindblowing that proves he is clearly above a horse like SYT?
A bunch of restricted class wins and another against a lame horse?
That is not enough I’m afraid, and I think you’d have realised that if you’d applied yourself as much to dissecting who Frankel has been running against as you did to SYT’s rivals.
Another thing, this (predominately UK based?) trend of using winning margins and using them as absolutely literal proof of differences between horses that have never raced against each other is to me quite flawed.
Does not take into account horses that love the fight, or pace in a race, or preferred racing styles and patterns or even the weather conditions on the day (hard track soft track etc).
If this sort of "horseracing maths" existed we’d back the winner in nearly every race on every card. Just doesn’t work that way and you know it.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.