- This topic has 52 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
- Total Posts 17716
H. Fly seems a bit injury prone to me. Apparently he cut his leg recently and he had injury problems before that. Quite a dangerous ante post bet I would say. Also his form is hard to determine because Solwhit is not very good. But maybe worth a go on the S James special each way 4 place offer if it is still going.
Willie Mullins has run and won with him 3 times in 6 weeks. You might be worrried but I doubt if his trainer is.
I know I am repeating myself but his injury that caused him to mmiss the Champion Hurdle was minor is highly unlikely to re-occur.
People keep saying he’s a dodgy AP bet but the truth is he has shown no reason to make anyone think he won’t make it this time unless you believe in jinxes.
I think WM intends running him again before the CH which seems nutty to me but with his record of success I’m sure he knows what he’s doing.
He seems to have plenty of problem making this season all the more remarkable. Being by Montjeu and being extremly highly strung is of course a worry but tbh he looks like he is oblivions.
Sean Boyce make a excellent point today that when the pace at the start as in all irish races was very strong and he jumped poorly but as the pace quickened and he got into rhythm he started to bolt over them and he jump at the 2nd last was breathtaking and the way he just destroyed solwhit and thousand stars.
I found that performance very good and while people talk about a horse like Menorah…a jockey like Richard Johnson is a negative for me
Talk about Binny…he did what he was entitled to do at Kempton nothing impressive about beating a galway hurdle winner
Peddlers Cross in the danger for me!!!!!
You got to be kidding "H". Too much emphasis put on the Cheltenham hill…..It’s the pace they go that beats horses that have a lack of stamina at the Festival the hill just puts the final nail in the coffin. Kelso and Carlisle are much stiffer hills.
Fist, surely pace has a large bearing on a horse’s stamina, or lack of it. I think you under play the importance of the Cheltenham hill and the stamina required to conquer it – especially when the race is run at a furious gallop throughout. Historically, the hill’s role, allied to a horse’s stamina, has more often than not been the determining factors in countless festival battles.
Hurricane Fly reminds me a little of Sea Pigeon in some respects: quick, scratchy actioned horse, fluent enough jumper and a good traveller throughout his races – but less robust than the dual Champion Hurdler.
He too had stamina doubts – and it was only when the distance of the race was shortened, and he was held up until the last possible moment, did he come into his own.
Should Hurricane Fly come off the bit sooner than the Mullins camp expect, then you will see the importance that stamina will play in getting up that hill and past the finishing line first.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I don’t think Hurricane Fly was as impressive as he was in his last two wins. He didn’t quicken up as well as I would like. His jumping wasn’t as good either. The guy said he hoped Ruby was on board, Townend is a brilliant jockey and has a good relationship witht he horse!
Couldn’t believe the prices, looked last night, Ladbrokes were offering 8/11, gobbled that up with Master Minded 8/15 in the Victor Chandler, looks like buying money to me, but what did I know, I put my faith in Kauto! £100 double.
Not a bad return, also used the two as a little backbone for lots of Cheltenham bets including Binocular, Big Bucks, Tranquil Sea, Time for Rupert, Finians Rainbow and Big Zeb.
With the Steelers winning this weekend too, turns out being an exceptional one!
Solwhit is not very good.
Really?
Solwhit has won 10 of his 18 hurdles starts. He’s won 6 Grade 1 races and he’s only finished outside the first two on 3 occasions. He was an easy winner of the November Handicap on the flat, he had a whole host of good horses in behind him when he won the Aintree Hurdle, and he beat Punjabi in the Emo Oil at Punchestown when that horse was the reigning Champion Hurdler.
The only time he’s really disappointed was at Cheltenham last year and he had valid excuses for that poor run. He was a sick horse the week beforehand and only came off a course of antibiotics a few days before the race. There’s no way his Cheltenham performance last year was his true running.
To say Hurricane Fly has "only" beaten Solwhit does that horse a serious disservice. Binocular "only" beat Overturn last weekend. He’s a decent horse in his own right but I’m sure Solwhit would bolt up in a Galway Hurdle off a mark of 145. Menorah "only" beat two novices in the Bula – Silviniano Conte might not be eligible for novice hurdles anymore but he’s still a novice to all intents and purposes.
All Hurricane Fly can do is beat the horses that line up against him and more often than not he’s done it effortlessly over the past three years. If Willie gets him there fit and well, I can’t see him being out of the first three. He’s an e/w steal at 5/1.
Solwhit is a proven grade 1 performer, and also consistent. Beating him read much better than beating Overturn
- Total Posts 17716
You got to be kidding "H". Too much emphasis put on the Cheltenham hill…..It’s the pace they go that beats horses that have a lack of stamina at the Festival the hill just puts the final nail in the coffin. Kelso and Carlisle are much stiffer hills.
Fist, surely pace has a large bearing on a horse’s stamina, or lack of it. I think you under play the importance of the Cheltenham hill and the stamina required to conquer it – especially when the race is run at a furious gallop throughout. Historically, the hill’s role, allied to a horse’s stamina, has more often than not been the determining factors in countless festival battles.
Hurricane Fly reminds me a little of Sea Pigeon in some respects: quick, scratchy actioned horse, fluent enough jumper and a good traveller throughout his races – but less robust than the dual Champion Hurdler.
He too had stamina doubts – and it was only when the distance of the race was shortened, and he was held up until the last possible moment, did he come into his own.
Should Hurricane Fly come off the bit sooner than the Mullins camp expect, then you will see the importance that stamina will play in getting up that hill and past the finishing line first.
I think to a point we are both saying the same thing but they’re different reason’s why horses don’t get up the hill or should I say don’t get up the hill at speed.
In Hurricane Fly’s case the only way you can beat him is to tap into his speed not into his stamina because he’s already a proven stayer.
To do that you would have to go at a tremendous pace and maintain it forcing him to use his speed to catch up….then he just becomes another horse in a dual od stamina to the finish……If nothing can do that he’ll go past Binocular and co like they are trees. Binocular is a very fast horse but he doesn’t have the instant acceleration Hurricane Fly has and that’s another reason that AP will try and go early gain this year..doesn’t have a choice really.
Ineresting to see AP said Binny’s recent run wasn’t up to Champion Hurdle class right after Hurricane Fly won again…….I reckon he suspects Hurrcane Fly is the better of the two and would ride him if he could.
I am still not convinced by H Fly at the current odds. I don’t see any reason to convince me he is better than any of Binocular, Peddlers, Overturn or Menorah. In addition it is conceivable that Mille Chief, Dunguib, Starluck or Khyber Kim might be better than H Fly. On top of that he is Irish so will have the overseas trip to Cheltenham to make, which is a slight disadvantage.
I am still not convinced by H Fly at the current odds. I don’t see any reason to convince me he is better than any of Binocular, Peddlers, Overturn or Menorah. In addition it is conceivable that Mille Chief, Dunguib, Starluck or Khyber Kim might be better than H Fly. On top of that he is Irish so will have the overseas trip to Cheltenham to make, which is a slight disadvantage.
You aren’t convinced he’s better than Overturn? Hurricane Fly would be a 1/10 shot in the Galway Hurdle off 145 and would win by half the Ballybrit track.
He’s an infinitely better horse than Starluck. Starluck couldn’t beat Go Native at Kempton last year. That’s the same Go Native that Hurricane Fly absolutely laughed at on two seperate occasions during their novice season. Dunguib was 15L behind HF at Punchsetown last April. I doubt either Khyber Kim or Mille Chief would beat Solwhit without coming off the bridle.
The travelling thing wouldn’t unduly concern me. He travelled to France twice within weeks of winning his maiden hurdle at Punchestown – winning a Grade 3 on his first run and finishing second in a Grade 1 with Quevega two lengths behind him. I’ve heard people say he hasn’t won on an undulating course but he’s 3 from 4 at Punchestown and that’s no flat track. Similar arguments are raised that he’s never gone at Champion Hurdle pace. They went off at a good clip on Sunday and from memory the Punchestown race was run at a real good gallop. He was quick enough to beat a Champion Stakes winner (Literato) and an Arlington Million winner (Spirit One) on the flat so the pace they go at Cheltenham shouldn’t be an issue.
He’s an e/w steal at the current odds. Is there one better than him in England? Maybe. I very much doubt there’s three better than him though.
You are beginning to convince me now that the Fly is a good thing. I still find it a bit odd though that he hasn’t gone head to head recently with any of the main English contenders. Are there any speed figures we can use to verify his comparative ability? I know it’s difficult with different tracks, pace, going etc but I would like to see he has got a course record or at least some fast times under his belt in the last 12 months.
- Total Posts 17716
I never saw your post while reading IC’s and was about to say "He’s convinced now"
Good poster the IC hope he’s as good a judge 
I have just been looking at the odds for the Champion Hurdle. The best deal on Fly with a bookmaker is 9/2 with 4 places e/w (S James). However, exchange prices are better (5.8 win and 2.5 three places). Perhaps surprisingly, all the 4 main contenders are odds against for a place.
You are beginning to convince me now that the Fly is a good thing. I still find it a bit odd though that he hasn’t gone head to head recently with any of the main English contenders. Are there any speed figures we can use to verify his comparative ability? I know it’s difficult with different tracks, pace, going etc but I would like to see he has got a course record or at least some fast times under his belt in the last 12 months.
Irish Champion Hurdle times:
1998 Istabraq, AP O’Brien, CF Swan (Yielding-Soft) 4m 9.80s
1999 Istabraq, AP O’Brien, CF Swan (Heavy) 4m 4.80s
2000 Istabraq, AP O’Brien, CF Swan (Yielding) 3m 53.90s
2001 Istabraq, AP O’Brien, CF Swan (Soft) 4m 4.20s
2002 Ned Kelly, EJ O’Grady, N Williamson (Heavy) 4m 20.60s
2003 Like-A-Butterfly, C Roche, CF Swan (Yielding-Soft) 4m 1.80s
2004 Foreman, T Doumen, T Doumen (Yielding) 3m 49.50s
2005 Macs Joy, J Harrington, BJ Geraghty (Heavy) 4m 8.40s
2006 Brave Inca, CA Murphy, AP McCoy (Yielding-Soft) 4m 0.20s
2007 Hardy Eustace, DT Hughes, C O’Dwyer (Soft) 3m 58.80s
2008 Sizing Europe, HdeBromhead, AJ McNamara (Yielding) 3m 50.30s
2009 Brave Inca, CA Murphy, R Walsh (Heavy) 4m 3.40s
2010 Solwhit, C Byrnes, DN Russell (Soft-Heavy) 3m 58.00s
2011 Hurricane Fly, WP Mullins, P Townend (Soft) 3m 52.10s
Make of that what you will
- Total Posts 17716
Hurricane Fly IS world class and I’ve backed him at much bigger than 5’s (each-way) for Cheltenham.
The 2 I’m worried about are Peddlers Cross and Dunguib. Peddlers Cross has speed and stamina, he won over 2 1/2 last year and was able to quicken twice against Binocular then Starluck in the Fighting Fith. Dunguib could be anything, and if he jumps his hurdles I wouldn’t be surprised to see him romp clear at Cheltenham.
- Total Posts 17716
Much bigger? This I got to hear!
Thanks Imperial for that info. The only thing that worries me now is that the Cheltenham race has been won by some quite high odds contenders in recent years so it seems form isn’t always a reliable predictor of who will win.
Best to continue this discussion on the Cheltenham pages I think now if anyone wants to carry on.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.