Irish Bioenergetics – 2010

[Gerald]

The moderators will probably want to move this thread to the Systems section, but I’d like them to hold off for a week or two, just in case interested parties don’t notice this thread. I’m writing this up as I’m going along today, and I want to make sure I’m doing it the right way.

Why Ireland?
a) No snakes, just certain trainers.
b) Fewer horses, fewer races, less work.
c) Next time Darren asks me my opinion about an Irish horse, I might actually have one!

We are given these constants:-
E(0) = 2615.3 J/kg
T(E) = 18.5s = Anaerobic time constant
P(m) = 68.296 W/kg
T(p) = 15.054s = Aerobic time constant
C(R) = 3.728 J/kg/m = Cost of running
k = 0.002273Ws cubed / kg m cubed = Air resistance

T(0) = E(0)/P(m) = 2615.3/68.296 = 38.29s

Working out Power Ratings for yesterday’s meeting at the Curragh

STEP 1
Work out F(T) for the standard times at the distances

T(s) = Standard Time

Standard Time (Racing Post)
5f 59.3
6f 71
6f 71
8f 97
8f 97
7f 83.5
8f 97

F(T(s)) = [T(0)/T(s)]*(1-EXP(-T(s)/T(E))) + 1 – [T(p)/T(s)]*(1-EXP(-T(s)/T(p)))

Okay, these are the figures I’ve got:-

F(T(s))
1.371 5f
1.318 6f
1.318 6f
1.238 8f
1.238 8f
1.274 7f
1.238 8f

These seem to be about right, as F(T) decreases from 1.4 to about 1.04 over race times, and the furthest race yesterday was only a mile.

STEP 2
Work out the Cost of Running the Standard Time carrying Standard weight, on standard going.

I’ll do this in the next post.

[moehat]

No moles either; is that bioenergetic? [what is bioenergetics?]

[Gerald]

STEP 2

Cost of Running the standard time, carrying standard weight, on standard going.

Equation 24, top of page 54.

C(R) = P(m)F(T(s))- K*[(D/T(s))^3] – 2*(1+ w(s)/W)[(D/T(s))^2]/T(s)
Divided by
(1 + w(s)/W)(D/T(s))

D is in metres so is furlongs x 201.16
w(s) = standard weight = 9 stone = 126 lbs
W = weight of horse = 1100 lbs

Anyway, these are the figures I’ve got

3.793 5f
3.681 6f
3.681 6f
3.668 8f
3.668 8f
3.645 7f
3.668 8f

I’m not so sure as in Step 1 that I’ve got this right. It would help if I worked out what units these were. If it was something along the lines of Watts per kilogram, it sort of makes sense. Will go all out at 5f, so that is the one where the horse is working hardest. Interesting that 7f is easier than 6f or 8f though . . .

[Gerald]

I think Bioenergetics is something along the lines of

anaerobic supply + aerobic supply = cost of locomotion + air resistance + kinetic energy.

[Gerald]

No moles either

They’re all in Ballydoyle.

[Gerald]

This is a bit tedious.

I think

STEP 3

is to calculate F(T) for the actual times that were run.

[Gerald]

STEP 3

Calculating F(T) for each actual race time.

Use Equation 23 at the top of page 53. Alternatively, use the equation in STEP 1, replacing F(T(s)) with F(T).

Here are yesterday’s racetimes:-

66.71
80.01
78.05
109.69
108.46
95.9
112.9

Hopefully, these are the correct corresponding values of F(T):-

1.335
1.285
1.292
1.211
1.213
1.240
1.205

[Gerald]

STEP 4

Calculate the

Power Ratings

of the winners, assuming that there is no Going Allowance ( F(G) = 1 ) .

P = [1 + w/W)*F(G)*C(R)*D/T + k*[(D/T)^3] + 2*(1 + w/W)[(D/T)^2]/T ]
divided by
F(T)

P is the power rating in Watts per kilogram.
w is the weight carried
W is the weight of the horse (1100 lbs).
F(G) is the Going Allowance, which for the moment will be set at 1.
C(R) is the Cost of Running, calculated in STEP 2.
D is the Distance of the race, in metres.
T is the time of the race, in seconds.
F(T) was calculated in STEP 3.

Erm, I might be gone a while. In fact, drunk too much Sella, we’ll carry this on tomorrow.

[cormack15]

Moved it here Gerald.

[Gerald]

That’s a pity – Prufock, Cavelino

et al

will never find it here. I’ll just be talking to myself, and I won’t know whether I’m doing it the right way.

[moehat]

Don’t worry, Gerald; as long as you’re doing it bioenergetically it’ll be fine.

[Gerald]

edit:

operator missing

=[(1+((14*E2+F2)/1100))*R2*((201.16*B2)/C2)+0.002273*((201.16*B2)^3)+2*(1+(14*E2+F2)/1100)*((201.16*B2/C2)^2)/C2]/S2

Replaced [ & ] by ( )

Values for the seven races are

1731943.31
3110144.66
3094342.08
7822645.02
7807581.58
5116672.87
7860765.29

Erm, a bit big. Should be in the region of 60. Forgot to divide D by T before I cubed it.

=((1+((14*E2+F2)/1100))*R2*((201.16*B2)/C2)+0.002273*((201.16*B2/C2)^3)+2*(1+(14*E2+F2)/1100)*((201.16*B2/C2)^2)/C2)/S2

Okay, these are the unadjusted Power Ratings of the winners, before a Going allowance is calculated:-

59.3811
58.7363
61.0067
59.5012
59.2287
57.6398
57.3567

[Gerald]

I was planning to create speed ratings by assuming that the 5th in the 22 runner Lincolnshire (Race 5) had run to their form rating. However, Topspeed is indicating that they were 45 lbs or so slow in this race.

Instead, I shall assume that the 3rd race (a Handicap) was truly run, and that the 3rd horse ran a couple of pounds higher than its rating, and the fourth horse a couple of pounds lower.

I’ll keep that for tomorrow.

Before, I want to go on a little diversion.

STEP 5

Calculate the Power Ratings for a Standard Horse running in the same times as the winning times. Standard Horse carries 9 Stone?

Pretty much the same calculation as Step 4, except the weight w is replaced by 126, instead of the actual weight carried.

[Gerald]

Okay, these are the Power Ratings if the winner had been carrying 9 Stone:-

59.2504
59.1694
60.9179
59.0677
59.8422
57.9374
57.1459

These are the differences from the Power Rating of the winner, together with the winners’ weight:-

0.1307 9-03
-0.4331 8-04
0.0888 9-02
0.4334 9-10
-0.6135 8-00
-0.2977 8-07
0.2108 9-05

So it looks like a 1lb is about 0.043 of a Power Rating, well, at the Curragh on a soggy day, anyway. I just wanted to know a ballpark figure for the Power Rating scale.

[Gerald]

STEP 6

Getting a bit lost and confused, but what I’d like to calculate next is the Power Rating of the Standard Horse, carrying Standard Weight, running Standard Time on Standard Going.

Actually, this seems to be what the constant P(m) is.

P(m) = 68.296 W/kg

I’ll do the calculation for each race, tomorrow, just to make sure.

[Cav]

Good stuff, Gerald, following with interest, although I havent bought the book yet. Awaiting your final figures with anticipation…

[Gerald]

Yeah, sorry Cav. I had a bad day last week when I found out that Kingsfort was out, I was supposed to do this, the form for a race on my betfair thread, plus I promised to write instructions for work on how to do my job. Was a bit much for me, and in the end I did nothing that day. (Can’t cope with stress.) Haven’t gotten back on the bicycle yet. Got the form to do for two races at Southwell tomorrow, and then I’m clear to return to this. Got next week off as holiday.

The problem comes from working out what the Going allowance should be on a particular day, especially if its the first day and you don’t have any collateral ratings!

[Author]

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