- This topic has 42 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
No 1000G thread as yet- and only 2 weeks away, but if Chiara Luna turns up she will be interesting- massive eye-catcher today, even though it was a trial without any Ballydoyle fillies.
In fact, where-ever she arrives next she’s of interest.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I was pondering Magical for the Irish 1000 Guineas. She was pulled out of the trial due to the quicker ground but I felt she ran well in France on her seasonal debut when she was likely to have needed the race really badly.
The winner there, Musis Amica was outpaced before finishing strongly in today’s French Guineas and Wind Chimes, who was behind Magical last time, really should have won the French Guineas today, being beaten a fast diminishing short neck and a head, after being left far too much to do from the 2 pole.
Magical mixed it with Newmarket second and third Laurens and Happily last year, beating the latter on one occasion. I may be way off in my thinking but I just had a feeling Magical could turn out something like the way Hydrangea but at shorter than the late bloomer from last season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It looks like Clemmie may not run in the Irish 1000 Guineas. She is out to 11/2 in the betting and that surely spells disaster for her fans again.
Magical seems unlikely as well, out to 10/1.
Happily is the one being backed and is as low as 11/8 now.
There has to be a chance that Clemmie just hasn’t trained on and she looks very dodgy as favourite for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, given that she is going to miss her second Classic race this weekend, judging by the betting.
In the 2000 it looks like a rematch between Gustav Klimt and Elarqam. It didn’t take long for Mark Johnston to backtrack from the Dante plan and I said on the Derby thread that I just couldn’t see Elarqam as a Derby type. He reminds me of Dawn Approach, in that he’s a colt who seems to run with the choke out all the way in his races. I think he will always be vulnerable to a turn of foot horse and we saw in the Guineas that Saxon Warrior pounced to claim him and a couple of others also got past him in the closing stages.
Gustav Klimt was the more fancied of the pair at Newmarket but Mark Johnston’s colt got the better of it by a length and a half on the day. There does not seem to be a strong reason why Gustav Klimt will reverse the form this time around and both colts were boosted by Roaring Lion in the Dante, after Gosden’s colt dotted up there after splitting the pair in his Guineas 5th place finish.
This race is going to cut up to a tiny field in my opinion and I reckon Elarqam at 11/4 is the value. He could go out there and be the hare that Gustav Klimt does not catch.
In the Irish 1000 I feel Who’s Steph is underestimated at 8/1. She looks an improved filly and I’d be surprised if she’s not a strong each way at the odds. I have the greed factor though and it’s win only.
1000 Guineas Who’s Steph 8/1
2000 Guineas Elarqam 11/4Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
We were in almost this exact situation with SW just three weeks ago, drift is probably based on AOB comments of him ‘being happy with first 5’ rather than an injury I’d say.
Agree about Elarqam, fancy him to win this after coming on from Newmarket.
Trouble is that Clemmie has already missed one Guineas and you’d be almost certain Moore won’t be on board. Add in being unproven at the trip and low expectations it doesn’t fill you with confidence for the future.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s not impossible for O’Briens 2nd strings etc to win the Irish 1000G.
For me i never fully subscribed to the Clemmie fanbase early on, i understand her pedigree indicates that she’d be better over a mile and she was very good over shorter last year. However, some horses don’t follow their pedigrees to the book.
I’d agree wit Kev the drift is probably based off AOB quotes, and the fact Moore will certainly ride Happily. I wouldn’t forget Clemmie though as she is bound to imrpove through the year if she comes back the same horse as last year.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Anyone heard anything on Chiara Luna?
she was a massive eyecatcher on her reappearance IMO
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Moore goes for US Navy Flag over GK.
Some will be surprised by that…personally i am surprised by how quick a lot of people gave up on USNF after one bad reappearance, when majority of AOB horses do it..
Bet it was a hard choice though.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Bet it was a hard choice though.
Think the decision was probably made a few days ago Jack. Been a bit of a punt on him the last 3 or 4 days. Backed down from 12’s to 3’s for this and 25’s to 10’s for the SJP.
For what it’s worth, I’m on Elarqam for interest.
Not backed anything in the 1000 yet. Looks a weak renewal.
I just can’t get away from the idea that the 5/1 with Gustav Klimt is far too big.
He may have blotted his copybook at the Guineas, but how many of Obrien’s have done that and then
gone on to be a major force. I know Moore is on US Navy Flag, but it’s only 6 weeks since he trailed
in behind GK, albeit the ground may have been a factor. I think GK can bounce back here, does O’Brien
want Donnacha to have a 2nd Classic to his name before he has to hang up his bootsI thought US Navy Flag ran well enough in France and should certainly improve for the ground. 3/1 is probably just about still a backable price, but the real value has long gone.
Original favourite Gustav Klimt is 11/2 now and that seems a “Man the lifeboats” job.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve never been that much of a fan of Elarqam and have backed both the Coolmore colts here. U S Navy Flag’s two year old form is above that of the rest and for the first time this season looks to get a surface on the quick side. Gustav Klimt doesn’t have to do that much to turn around form with the fav and back on a flatter, round track should have every chance of doing just that.
Gustav Klimt 11/2
U S Navy Flag 7/2Shocking ride from Crowley, US Navy Flag needs to drop back in trip (Commonwealth Cup) but the winner was impressive.
Wish Crowley had stayed at home today it looked like he got Elarqam really unbalanced, diving left and right he could even have clipped heels and been brought down, a ride to forget. Seemed he was steering him into trouble rather than away from it.
Well done to anyone who found the winner
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
Jac- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.