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I think Jack Hobbs will be a very short price for Epsom come Friday morning.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think Jack Hobbs will be a very short price for Epsom come Friday morning.
Nah,I dont Steve,I’m convinced Coolmore have the Derby Winner,I hope its Giovanni but there’s a strong supporting cast.
What about Golden Horn of Gosden’s ? If it wins the Dante it will be supplemented for the Derby for certain. If it doesn’t win the Dante they will probably run it in the French Derby ergo…….
Back it at 20/1 ish to win the Derby now in the knowledge that if it doesn’t win or go very close in the Dante its not likely to turn up at Epsom.
I know some people may think this is clutching at straws but why not considering the current Derby market has a horse favourite that won a handicap of 85 last time out!!!
And the next four in the betting have ran twice between them this season and one of those runs was last of three.
I am sat here quite content with my 66/1 Hans Holbein and I just hope he turns up cos he will definitely stay (at what pace I am not sure) and has ran reasonably well this season.The waters are still very muddy!!!
Must be a top horse this Golden Horn. Beat my Peacock you know…….
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I think Darren was right. Sir Isaac Newton is the Derby horse. Backed at 100 earlier. Entered in a maiden on Sunday. Only Gleneagles and I think 1 other AOB runner has won FTO this year. Should improve a shedload from Chester. Only beaten 1/4L by the near-Derby favourite Zawraq. Form is temporary…
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
I think Jack Hobbs will be a very short price for Epsom come Friday morning.Nah,I dont Steve,I’m convinced Coolmore have the Derby Winner,I hope its Giovanni but there’s a strong supporting cast.
Giovanni Canaletto misses the Dante Gord. That’s leaving him the mother of all trends to defy in winning the Derby on his seasonal debut. I wouldn’t even put money on him running to be honest, why rush him there, with other targets to wait for? The Irish Derby would be more his cup of tea to my mind.
I don’t think it’s a strong supporting cast at all. Hans Holbein was impressive enough but it has to be put into perspective as to how good the form is. Runner up Storm The Stars took four goes to lose his maiden tag and was rated 89 coming into the Chester Vase. I think Hans Holbein has looked more like a Leger or even a Queen’s Vase type in his career. I saw his debut and thought he’d make a successful three year old but probably later in the season, on autumn ground.
Ol’ Man River needs to bounce back big time, Sir Isaac Newton looks like he’s not ready yet and Highland Reel was disappointing in the French 2000 Guineas. In my opinion the best chance for Ballydoyle is a resurgent performance from John F Kennedy in the Dante. A couple of pundits have been saying he’s been well backed for the Dante but he drifted first and more or less back where he was. In any case we saw with Highland Reel last Sunday that financial support and slashed odds can mean diddley squat. John F Kennedy is still the horse I have the most respect for from the O Brien camp. He’d long been their top chance according to market moves. I can’t say I am that excited by his form but another half mile at 3yo can work wonders for a horse compared to just the mile at 2yo. That four furlongs has closed poles-apart perceived abilities very quickly between horses over the years. I think John F Kennedy needs to either win this or go very close, in order to support the notion that he can win the Derby. I wouldn’t rule him out of it but I think he’s got a bit on after his first run disappointment and now taking on a winner last time out in Jack Hobbs and a classy colt in Elm Park.
I don’t quite share the trainer’s enthusiasm with Elm Park, I recall being equally concerned in not seeing the same horse he seemed to be seeing in Bonfire, and it surprised me a lot less than him when the fireworks didn’t start for him at Epsom, proving a damp squib rather than a rocket on the day. He’s respected and I think either he or Jack Hobbs will lift the Dante.
I was hoping something that ran behind Jack Hobbs would have run again since, just to give us a ball park idea of the form, but, nearly three weeks on, there has been nothing to emerge. You can’t expect much anyway, with the tanking they all got.
It’s a bit odd that we have a scenario where Hans Holbein beats a horse rated 89 in the Chester Vase by a length and a half and we have people fancying him as a Derby prospect. Jack Hobbs also beats a horse rated 89 at Sandown, Rotherwick, albeit getting 4lbs, but he blows him completely and utterly out of the water. Because the latter race is a handicap there is doubt thrown over the form but the fact is that two horses rated 89 were beaten in races by very different margins and just because one is a race of group 3 status, it doesn’t make the 89 rated horse a better quality of 89 rated horse. Unless of course it’s a Marks and Spencers’ 89 rated horse.
Whatever the outcome, I hope something good comes out of this Dante and stamps some quality on a muddled hotch-potch.
Jack The Lad or Jack And Danny? That is the question (Sheikh Spear)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Fair comment Steve !!
I just think that because of all the umming and arring regarding the Derby I am better off backing a 66/1 shot that might win rather than a 9/2 shot that might win!!
I am happy with my tenner each way on Hans Holbein at 66/1 and come closer I am sure I will back something else as well (probably the winner of the Dante) because this is the only trial of meaning left!!Was Shaamit the last Derby winner to not had a run that season prior to the Derby ?
Yup, that’s precisely why I’ve backed Sir Isaac Newton. There are an awful lot of question marks over several of the favourites and I don’t find it at all inconceivable that SIN could be good enough to win despite only having run in maidens.
One of the very interesting Derby trends I’ve found is the breeding. Starting with Lammtarra (I’ve not gone further back, but this is for no particular reason, other than it becomes difficult to find the race records of most horses who raced pre-1990, which would be the case for most of the dams) through to Australia, every Derby winner’s dam had blacktype or was unraced. Disclaimer – the RP hasn’t got the race record for either High Tern or Sheer Audacity, the mares of High Rise and Oath respectively. Pedigreequery.com tells me that Sheer Audacity was rubbish – High Tern might have gotten blacktype but I can’t tell (won 2, placed 3 times?).
In any case, that’s 18 (or 19)/20 Derby winners who had an unraced or blacktype dam. To give this stat more context, here are the full Derby fields between 2006 and 2014 with their dams listed.
Yellow = blacktype
Green = unraced
Red = neither
Light blue = I don’t remember :D perhaps unknown
And then we look at the principal hopes this year;
Foaling dates are also very insightful.
April foals since 1995 are 3-8-58. 2 of the winners were early-April foals, Sea The Stars April 6th & Australia April 8th. The other winner was Oath, April 22nd. The placed April foals were a mix – 11th, 30th, 23rd, 18th, 23rd, 10th, 30th, 18th.
May foals are 1-2-21. The winner was High Rise, May 3rd.
I find a good cut off point is roughly April 15th. The only Derby winners since 1995 born after 15th April were High Rise and Oath, arguably the worst 2.
And the principal hopes this year;
So despite Zawraq being my favourite a fortnight ago just based on form, I now think he has next to no chance. Bad dam & very late April foal.
Based on breeding and foaling dates I’d say that Jack Hobbs, JFK, Old Man River, Highland Reel, Christophermarlowe, Golden Horn and Sir Isaac Newton have the best chance. Not a tiny shortlist, but they do discount Zawraq and Elm Park, 2 of the Derby favourites. Hans Holbein, Giovanni Canaletto, Kilimanjaro and Nafaqa the others to go.
Very interesting Zarkava . You have obviously put some work into it and I hope it pays off for you.
I think Darren was right. Sir Isaac Newton is the Derby horse. Backed at 100 earlier. Entered in a maiden on Sunday. Only Gleneagles and I think 1 other AOB runner has won FTO this year. Should improve a shedload from Chester. Only beaten 1/4L by the near-Derby favourite Zawraq. Form is temporary…
I can’t see Sir Isaac Newton at all as the winner of the Derby. He’s got a Racing Post rating of just 90 and was beaten by a horse rated 79 at Chester.
I’d like to see him win a race of any sort first, before thinking he’s a Derby horse. He’s entered in a mile maiden at Navan on Sunday and that is odd to me that they would be dropping him back in trip from 10f and, assuming he wins at a mile, then having to go up another half mile in trip for the Derby.
It strikes me as if they are running out of time with the horse. If all had been well, surely lining up for the Dee Stakes or the Dante would have been the much more logical step towards Epsom. 7f, 10f, 8f, 12f looks an odd run of races, particularly when beaten favourite as odds on twice to kick off the sequence. It just looks to me that they have been playing catch up with the beautifully bred colt from the start.
Other than Zawraq, the maiden Sir Isaac Newton made his debut in does not look up to much. Everyone seems to be assuming Zawraq is really good but we don’t actually know yet and his own path to Epsom hasn’t exactly been clear of uncertainty and plans to go for the 2000 Guineas were scrapped. He won the Guineas trial in good style on the soft but has avoided that sort of ground since. He has stamina to prove and his trainer hasn’t had a prolific Derby presence or success rate. I reckon he’s very much a false price now, having been 25/1 for the race and then winning a race where he was quite a warm order and very much expected to win.
Zawraq may well improve and do the business in an open looking year but he’s got plenty to prove at the odds and I can’t get excited about Sir Isaac Newton by proxy through finishing second to Zawraq last year after belatedly making his appearance on a racecourse.
I think John F Kennedy will be Aiden’s leading hope, unless he sees sense and realises there is a Derby here just waiting to be won by Gleneagles, swooping through to take it up in the last furlong and a half. Probably he’ll send a barge to try to do the speedboat’s work though
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I wonder if they’re just desperate to get a run into him on good ground, Steve, that they’re happy to run him over any trip. Forecast doesn’t look great for Navan at the moment though!
One of the other strongish Derby trends is that the winner must have debuted at a racetrack where a Group 1 is held. The theory being that the best maidens are held at such tracks, therefore the best horses are run in them.
Again, there are exceptions – but both of them were non-British winners; High Chaparral (Punchestown) and Pour Moi (Fontainebleau).
Their record, 1995-2014, is 2-17-98.
Only British runners over the same period are 0-10-75.
The principal hopes;
Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs the only 2 affected runners from the remaining shortlisted horses. I don’t fancy Christophermarlowe in the slightest, nor can I have Highland Reel.
I think I’ll back both JFK & OMR to win the Dante and Derby, depending on price offered. I’d want 20s and 40s upwards respectively. Although OMR is racing in the pink silks tomorrow with Joseph on-board I think it’s a case of them not knowing (trainer or jockey) which horse is better. Purely going on profile I’d say that OMR is the superior horse. Maiden-maiden-Group 3 is not the path I’d expect AOB to take with a high quality horse (JFK). The Ballysax-Derrinstown route is also not something I’d expect of an AOB potential Derby-winning horse in 2015. I also can’t get it out of my head that OMR went off 3rd fav for the Guineas at a crazy price.
Have backed OMR for Dante & Derby at 66s with Skybet with a very tiny saver on JFK at 18s.
Fair comment Steve !!
I just think that because of all the umming and arring regarding the Derby I am better off backing a 66/1 shot that might win rather than a 9/2 shot that might win!!
I am happy with my tenner each way on Hans Holbein at 66/1 and come closer I am sure I will back something else as well (probably the winner of the Dante) because this is the only trial of meaning left!!Was Shaamit the last Derby winner to not had a run that season prior to the Derby ?
Nothing at all wrong with Hans Holbein at 66/1 Raymo, he’s the sort of horse I might have had a tickle on myself if it weren’t for the stable having so many contenders and the uncertainty about how many will ultimately line up. I watched him first time last year and actually expected that he would win his next race, but he was second, before then getting off the mark the third time.
The form of his second run hasn’t worked out well but it was heavy ground that day. I think a good test of stamina would give him the best chance of springing a bit of a surprise.
We should all be a lot wiser tomorrow, I have seen confident statements regarding John F Kennedy and Elm Park but there is less confidence in Elm Park in the betting, as he has hit 4/1 in some places. Perhaps the ground isn’t as soft as he would like.
Jack Hobbs is 11/4 for tomorrow and I could well visualise John F Kennedy going off favourite for the Dante. If Jack Hobbs is going to beat John F Kennedy then the Dante is probably going to be as good a time to do it, with the O’Brien horse coming in off a disappointing last run.
John Gosden feels Jack Hobbs is a silly price for the Derby and he thinks Golden Horn could well win the Dante despite being the outsider of the two tomorrow. He seemed to strongly suggest that Golden Horn was a mile and a quarter horse though, adding that he had worked brilliantly last week.
Not too upbeat regarding Jack Hobbs by the sound of it but Gosden was fairly lukewarm about his chance last time despite the money flooding on. I was bit surprised to hear him say that Jack Hobbs won by five lengths last time though, it looked a bit more than that to me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Based on breeding and foaling dates I’d say that Jack Hobbs, JFK, Old Man River, Highland Reel, Christophermarlowe, Golden Horn and Sir Isaac Newton have the best chance. Not a tiny shortlist, but they do discount Zawraq and Elm Park, 2 of the Derby favourites. Hans Holbein, Giovanni Canaletto, Kilimanjaro and Nafaqa the others to go.
[/quote]As I have pointed out before surely the strongest pointer to breeding is the fact the last 12 winners of the 2,000 Guineas & the last 11 winners of the Derby all have Northern Dancer within their last 4 generations.This would immediately discount Jack Hobbs.Jack Hobbs’ sire is Halling & in his 2nd line he has Diesis & Swain.None of these 3 stallions appear in the immediate 4 generations of the last 11 winners.
I wouldnt be in a rush to discount Zawraq.His tailline is outstanding & consists of Sarayir,Height of Fashion & Highclere.With Sadlers Wells in the 2nd generation his pedigree is enhanced further.For me though I dont find the sires side of his pedigree ‘sexy’ enough for the Derby.I could yet be proved wrong.
Hans Holbein has a nice pedigree being by Montjeu out of a Shirley Heights mare.Llyn Gwynant appears in the tailline & she won 2 Group 3’s over 1m.12 furlongs won’t be a problem to him & I could’nt discount him.
From a pedigree point of view I fail to see how you can discount Giovanni Canaletto – he’s a full brother to Ruler of The World.A son of Sadlers Wells crossed with a Kingmambo filly also produced Camelot,a potent nick if ever I saw one.However,having scoped poorly within the last few weeks & missed his intended run @ Chester he can hardly have had the best preparation.
7 of the top 17 in the betting according to Oddschecker belong to A.O’Brien which is understandable considering Coolmore have won it for the last 4 years on the spin.Things will definitely be clearer by this time tomorrow following the Dante but its been a strange build up to the Derby this year make no mistake.
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