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[/quote Steve Caution]
Come on Aiden, run Gleneagles, you know he’s your only real chance.
Still 4 weeks till Derby day Steve and hopefully Giovanni Canaletto will go to York,he’s Coolmores best 11/2m horse for sure.I can still see ‘John F Kennedy’ and ‘Sir Isaac Newton’ lining up at Epsom too.No way will they run there top miler ‘Gleneagles’ at Epsom.
[/quote]Four weeks isn’t a long time though Gord. York arrives even quicker and Giovanni Canaletto is probably going to have to face Jack Hobbs and Elm Park in the Dante. That’s a lot for a maiden to be tackling and with him scoping dirty this week and Aiden’s mostly look like they are needing their first run. For me, Giovanni Canaletto needs to run at least reasonably close to the Derby springer Jack Hobbs and Racing Post Trophy winner Elm Park to be in with a shout at Epsom and he’ll need to be smart to be able to do that. At this stage I’d be worried about how strong the Ballydoyle challenge actually is.
John F Kennedy might be worth one more chance to prove he just badly needed his opening run of the year. I actually didn’t see anything from him last year that made me think he was an outstanding candidate for the Derby, I had a feeling his rating was quite inflated considering what he had actually won. It’s a help for him that Zawraq misses the Derrinstown but he seems likely to face soft ground and I’m not sure I would want to run him on that surface before heading to Epsom. I think he’s poor value on his overall form.
Sir Isaac Newton can line up at Epsom if they wish but I think he’s got no chance after being beaten by a 79 rated maiden. Of course his high price tag means they will be keen to try to win something with him that is worth putting on the CV but this would need to be one of the worst Derby renewals if he was going to win it after his Chester effort. The alarm bells actually sounded for me when I saw they were running him.
We get a chance to see Hans Holbien today and Smuggler’s Cove tomorrow but they were quite far down the supposed pecking order last year and it makes me wonder with them coming to the fore for some of the trials. Neither horse appears to have an insurmountable task over the two days and they may well win their respective races.
Christophermarlowe fans will be watching to see how Future Empire gets on against Hans Holbien, as Gosden’s colt beat him at Epsom last time. Christophermarlowe is 8/15 in early betting for the Lingfield Derby trial and success there would surely see him trading at single figures for the big day itself. I’m happy with my 33/1 on him but not confident.
Last back-end it looked like Aiden might have a poker hand of a Pair of Kings and a Pair of Jacks for the Derby but looking now you might think he is bluffing and has an Ace High and a busted straight 10-9-8-7 instead.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
That Chester Vase sums up exactly why I never back Godolphin horses trained by their main trainers.
I don’t trust their horses to run two races the same and Future Empire ran like a scabby donkey there today. The betting told the story and predictably Hans Holbien has been slashed for the Derby.
Christophermarlowe got no compliment at all there but I wouldn’t worry about the Godolphin pot-luck bingo horse not holding his end up.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I backed hans Holbein at 66/1 before it won the Vase today on the premis that if it won today it wouldn’t be anything like that price for the Derby and for once I was right.
Okay its still 16/1 or 20/1 for the Derby but at least its likely to turn up and it will get the trip. Maybe its not a superstar but it will finish in front of more than beat it.The waters are still pretty muddy though regarding the Derby and we still have several trials to see…..
Nothing from the Dee Stakes to make any impact in the Derby.
Disegno threatened to win narrowly but lost out in the photo. My fun 66/1 is down the pan with him and he didn’t make the progress from his first run that I expected. Maybe the ground went against him and Smuggler’s Cove who was under pressure early and disappointing.
I still think Gleneagles is O Brien’s only realistic chance of winning this years Derby this year but he’ll head to Ireland an run at odds on instead in all probability.
Other than the Dante, there seems little else to get excited about in the trials.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Haven’t seen Sir Isaac Newton’s run yet but by the sounds of things I don’t need to
The waters are still pretty muddy BUT this weekend and the Dante will hopefully clear it a bit.
For my sake I hope they are all run rubbish and they make Hans Holbein favourite LOL LOL
No seriously though it would be nice to see something win the Dante impressively and become faavourite by actions rather than reputation or default!!
Step forward ………..Haven’t seen Sir Isaac Newton’s run yet but by the sounds of things I don’t need to
The race can be seen here Tommy, the video isn’t the best quality but conditions were quite bad at the time the race was run anyway:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3R6Iz6AH6eU
Better ground and a bit more time might help Sir Isaac, I think this Derby may come a bit soon for him.
Mind you, if you took the winner out of the equation and saw the O’Brien horse win by that far from the rest, you would probably have seen him near favourite for the Derby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Wasn’t too bad a run to be honest seeing it again and like Steve says take the winner away and Newton bolts up by about 2 furlongs. You expect them to win at 1/6 mind but it wouldn’t be the first time an O’Brien horse has got beat at short odds on and then win in a bigger race next time up.
Christophermarlowe’s bubble just burst at Lingfield.Blackbeard to conquer the World
No Derby for Christophermarlowe after that dismal effort. He was never going to be a confident pick but a horse I thought might place at big odds. At least I got 33/1 and beat Pricewise who tipped him at half those odds and now knows he picked a cuddy.
We will see how Highland Reel gets on tomorrow in France and perhaps the Dante might throw one up, but I still maintain my belief that Gleneagles is the only horse Aiden O’Brien trains or Michael Tabor owns, who can win the Derby.
I suspected the vibe was that Jack Hobbs was a much better candidate than Christophermarlowe and, by God, he’ll have to be after that grim effort from the slow looking Tapit colt, who, after Future Empire’s pathetic effort earlier in the week, may have been overrated by the Handicapper for his Epsom Derby Trial win. Future Empire certainly ran nothing like a horse rated 100 earlier this week.
I had looked at Christophermarlowe as a potential Leger horse and perhaps heading that route after a first five finish in the Derby after perhaps not having the required pace but after today’s effort I don’t think he’s even good enough for that.
For all that John Gosden is a great trainer, his record in these Classics is pretty uninspiring. Yet to win a 2000 Guineas and just Benny The Dip in the 1997 Derby isn’t a big return and that would be a slight concern for me if I was considering a bet on Jack Hobbs as favourite.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
C Marlowe showed a distinct tendency to carry his head to the right, something he’s done before but it was much more pronounced today. Perhaps the ground affected him, but never a good sign imo to see a horse do this
C Marlowe showed a distinct tendency to carry his head to the right, something he’s done before but it was much more pronounced today. Perhaps the ground affected him, but never a good sign imo to see a horse do this
As you say it isn’t a first but nobody has bothered to point it out. Only seems to do it in his slower paces though. Probably just a peculiarity as he has done it on both quick and slow ground.
C Marlowe showed a distinct tendency to carry his head to the right, something he’s done before but it was much more pronounced today. Perhaps the ground affected him, but never a good sign imo to see a horse do this
The biggest problem the horse has is that he’s nowhere near good enough for the Derby Joe.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nothing seems to want to win this race does it? I can’t remember a year like this where everything is getting beaten in poor races and not just getting beaten but heavily and showing little to no spark.
I can’t help thinking the Dante is going to be the significant trial this year. The Lingfield and Chester trials have thrown up nothing, the Derrinstown looks a poor field and there is nothing to come from the 2000 Guineas that looks likely to get involved at Epsom. There is the possibility albeit slim of Gleneagles going to Epsom but everytime I think of him going there I see pictures in my head of El Gran Senor vs Secreto in 1984.
Jack Hobbs is favourite for the Dante and the Derby but he shouldn’t be. He won a soft ground handicap off 85 by about 8 / 9 lengths to the eye. Now I don’t care if he wins that race by 15 lengths that is a million miles away from winning even an average Derby. JFK may well line up in the Dante. He was atrocious on his seasonal re-app and he needs to improve an humongous amount on that to be a Derby contender but at some point SOMETHING surely must show up. A poor run from him next week and he probably won’t even go to Epsom. Elm Park is the standout at the moment for me. He is a class horse, a group one winner and a consistent type. If he is the same horse as last year he’ll win at York and will probably shorten to strong favorite for the Derby. I am not 100% certain that he’ll be fully effective over a mile and a half but given the strength of the opposition at this point he might not need to be.
Highland Reel is a fly in the ointment. The form of his Goodwood win last season is shocking but he is bred to get further and is one to keep an eye on. It’s a tough start for him later today in France but if he runs a big race he could well be O’Brien’s number one for Epsom.
What has happened to Zawraq? Is he going straight to Epsom now?
Nothing seems to want to win this race does it? I can’t remember a year like this where everything is getting beaten in poor races and not just getting beaten but heavily and showing little to no spark.
I can’t help thinking the Dante is going to be the significant trial this year. The Lingfield and Chester trials have thrown up nothing, the Derrinstown looks a poor field and there is nothing to come from the 2000 Guineas that looks likely to get involved at Epsom. There is the possibility albeit slim of Gleneagles going to Epsom but everytime I think of him going there I see pictures in my head of El Gran Senor vs Secreto in 1984.
Jack Hobbs is favourite for the Dante and the Derby but he shouldn’t be. He won a soft ground handicap off 85 by about 8 / 9 lengths to the eye. Now I don’t care if he wins that race by 15 lengths that is a million miles away from winning even an average Derby. JFK may well line up in the Dante. He was atrocious on his seasonal re-app and he needs to improve an humongous amount on that to be a Derby contender but at some point SOMETHING surely must show up. A poor run from him next week and he probably won’t even go to Epsom. Elm Park is the standout at the moment for me. He is a class horse, a group one winner and a consistent type. If he is the same horse as last year he’ll win at York and will probably shorten to strong favorite for the Derby. I am not 100% certain that he’ll be fully effective over a mile and a half but given the strength of the opposition at this point he might not need to be.
Highland Reel is a fly in the ointment. The form of his Goodwood win last season is shocking but he is bred to get further and is one to keep an eye on. It’s a tough start for him later today in France but if he runs a big race he could well be O’Brien’s number one for Epsom.
What has happened to Zawraq? Is he going straight to Epsom now?
The Irish Guineas was mooted for Zawraq but it’s been eerily quiet with him and he was in limbo for the Newmarket Guineas and the Derrinstown, before missing both races. His Guineas Trial win at Leopardstown has seen all three who ran behind him, and have run since, beaten. Runner up Endless Drama was 2nd in a listed race, the 3rd and 4th were both last in their next race. His maiden win from Sir Isaac Newton obviously took a wobbler when that horse was beaten at 1/6. I think Zawraq ia an appalling price for Epsom given his trainer’s record in the race and the way his preparation has gone.
Normally I’d agree with you about Jack Hobbs and the handicap route but I like the unusual confidence that Gosden showed in nominating the Dante right away and also entering the horse in the Eclipse. It is also worth recalling, in my mind, that Taghrooda was entered in a handicap for her debut last year and was due to run off a low enough handicap mark before the ground meant she was pulled out. Probably plenty would have said she wouldn’t win the Oaks after landing a handicap and plenty people cribbed the race she eventually appeared in before she drifted to 5/1 for the Oaks and duly hosed in.
The Dante should tell us if Jack Hobbs has any hope.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Another O’Brien hope falls by the wayside as Highland Reel goes off a silly price for the French 2000 and never lands a blow.
25/1 for him now and really only the Dante left to give O’Brien a candidate with a realistic chance. John F Kennedy or Giovanni Canaletto look his best prospects but neither is a certain runner in the Dante if the ground is soft.
Gleneagles is by far his best shot this year and I reckon they are clucking mad chicken if they don’t have a go at a weak looking renewal. Buck, buck, buck
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
One crumb of comfort, if I may, for Ol’ Man River backers…I am one myself so that might taint the thoughts below, you can judge for yourself.
The Ballydoyle operation as well as having as good a trainer as there is in Europe and also literally dozens of experienced horsemen in its employ who would grace any equine establishment is also fundamentally these days an organisation with a strong leaning to numbers and performance driven criteria.
Sectional timings on the gallops, lung capacity, stride length, blood counts, circulation volumes, recovery times etc.
It is absolutely impossible to believe that given Ol’ Man River, a stoutly bred son of Montjeu who was debuted as a two year old over a mile, was allowed to run in the 2,000 Guineas, started 3rd favourite and started at 6/1 that they were not really, really pleased with him at home.
Now many horses can have inexplicably bad days and we don’t know what the explanation was for OMR at Newmarket, maybe he was not mentally ready for such a big race at that speed…his breeding would not have helped him there but there does not seem to have been a physical problem and he was eased which made it look bad but probably helped his long term hopes.It was certainly not in any way good for his Derby prospects and I instinctively thought if he was to have any chance at Epsom he would need to run again before the Derby in another trial and the only two I thought as at all possible were the Dante or the Gallinule, which is run over 10f on Irish Guineas weekend. The Dante I thought would be a more positive sign as it would be better contested and it would indicate that had not lost significant confidence in the horse. He is still in the Dante but not certain to run and the signs are hard to read. If he doesn’t run at York his Epsom chance has probably gone.
There are a few examples of heavily gambled (to the point of head-scratching prices) Ballydoyle horses flopping but the weight of money in defeat indicating that the underlying talent was there in abundance.
Most recently Declaration of War started a bizarrely short price for the Lockinge (5/4) in defiance of known form and was soundly beaten. He promptly turned the Queen Anne into a procession, won the Juddmonte and went down in a three way photo for the Breeders Cup Classic. The money left behind a Newbury did indicate the horse was a bit special.
Similarly St Nicholas Abbey was another Montjeu that started Evens favourite for the Guineas before finishing only 6th behind Makfi, then establishing a multiple G1 winning cv. Admittedly there was a long break after Newmarket but this was following a physical problem being identified.
So Ol’ Man River is definitely up against it but I think there is some hope that the decision to run at Newmarket and the strong market support indicate he remains a very talented 3yo.What about Golden Horn of Gosden’s ? If it wins the Dante it will be supplemented for the Derby for certain. If it doesn’t win the Dante they will probably run it in the French Derby ergo…….
Back it at 20/1 ish to win the Derby now in the knowledge that if it doesn’t win or go very close in the Dante its not likely to turn up at Epsom.
I know some people may think this is clutching at straws but why not considering the current Derby market has a horse favourite that won a handicap of 85 last time out!!!
And the next four in the betting have ran twice between them this season and one of those runs was last of three.
I am sat here quite content with my 66/1 Hans Holbein and I just hope he turns up cos he will definitely stay (at what pace I am not sure) and has ran reasonably well this season.The waters are still very muddy!!!
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