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As the race currently looks so open. I have had a small EW investment on Festive Fare. It has stacks to find, but I have just always felt it is a very nice horse. Don’t need much on the exchanges at 200/1 to get a nice return.
Hoping it might head to Dee Stakes and put in a good performance this week.
Jack Hobbs is Gosden’s Derby horse. Runs in the Dante next week at York.
If Christophermarlowe runs in, and wins, the Chester Vase, I am sure he will run in The Derby as well. It would be folly not to take his chance as a two time course winner and the two horses are in different ownership.
Jack Hobbs opened at 2/1 for the Dante, as the sole horse quoted but he was 6/5 on Betfair this morning with Elm Park roughly 2/1, being the only other horse quoted for now.
A bit crazy to think a handicap winner sits ahead of a Group 1 winner in the market for a race but that’s the power of the big distance win. We saw how people were beguiled by Intilaaq in the 2000 Guineas and a maiden winner 8/1 with the group 1 winning favourite 4/1.
My feeling is that Jack Hobbs is much more likely to be the real deal but he’s short enough for the Derby now at 7/1 with another step forward required and Gleneagles not totally ruled out yet.
Aiden didn’t say the Irish 2000 was a definite but did say it was the most likely option if the ground was suitably good. Paddy Power have opened a book on the race and have Gleneagles 1/2 and Zawraq 3/1, which may be a licence to print money, with the promising Zawraq a Derby possible and having a sizeable gap to close on the Guineas winner in terms of form.
I had a look back to see Jim Bolger’s thoughts on Dawn Approach and found this article from 5th May 2013:-
Bolger said his dominant Classic winner was “more than likely” to run at Epsom on June 1 rather than in the Irish 2,000 Guineas the previous weekend, dismissing concerns about the colt’s staying ability and revealing a decision is likely early next week.
“Sheikh Mohammed and I have agreed that we’d both sleep on it and ponder the situation and maybe talk in 48 hours,” Bolger said.
“On his breeding you’d expect that he would not get it [the Derby trip of 1m4f], but because he’s so relaxed and he has so much class, there is a reasonable chance that he will get it. For that reason, it probably will be decided that he’ll go there.”
Dawn Approach’s father New Approach, also trained by Bolger, was second in the 2008 2,000 Guineas before going on to win over the longer trip at Epsom.
“He wouldn’t have the stamina influence that New Approach had in his pedigree, but that doesn’t mean he will not stay,” Bolger told ATR.
“If New Approach had had the temperament of Dawn Approach, he’d have stayed the [Ascot] Gold Cup distance. Because he was so industrious, it was going to limit his staying ability.”
Bolger ruled out the possibility of Dawn Approach, who dealt out a five-length thrashing at Newmarket, attempting an Irish Guineas-British Derby double.
“No, they’re too close together now. It’ll more than likely be Epsom but I have to speak to Sheikh Mohammed,” he said.
Obviously the horse didn’t read the article and forgot that he was supposed to be relaxed but it is interesting that he thought the two Guineas were a bit close together at a three week gap. His points about the horse’s class helping offset stamina questions are obviously applicable to Gleneagles in this carbon copy scenario two years on.
To my eyes, Gleneagles holds a far better chance of settling at the Derby distance and he will be facing slower horses, albeit more stoutly bred ones.
Would we rather watch him run up a sequence of 1/5f and 1/6f wins or create a bit of history and join the greats who have done the double. Let’s face it Camelot was capable of it and he looks pretty average in retrospect.
Sheikh Mohammed had the cojones, have “The Boys” also been blessed with a pair?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Christophermarlowe will not clash with Giovanni Canaletto in the Chester Vase. John Gosden has said his colt will go to Lingfield for the Derby Trial unless the ground is very soft.
It looks a very winnable race for the unbeaten horse and he’ll surely be on target for the Derby should he emerge victorious.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Christophermarlowe will not clash with Giovanni Canaletto in the Chester Vase. John Gosden has said his colt will go to Lingfield for the Derby Trial unless the ground is very soft.
It looks a very winnable race for the unbeaten horse and he’ll surely be on target for the Derby should he emerge victorious.
Except he has scoped badly and is in all likeliness out of the vase as well. In related news, Ol’ Man River might make a quick return in the Dante next week. John F Kennedy in the Derrinstown as originally planned, and Sir Isaac lining up in a maiden at Chester.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
Christophermarlowe will not clash with Giovanni Canaletto in the Chester Vase. John Gosden has said his colt will go to Lingfield for the Derby Trial unless the ground is very soft.It looks a very winnable race for the unbeaten horse and he’ll surely be on target for the Derby should he emerge victorious.
Except he has scoped badly and is in all likeliness out of the vase as well. In related news, Ol’ Man River might make a quick return in the Dante next week. John F Kennedy in the Derrinstown as originally planned, and Sir Isaac lining up in a maiden at Chester.
Gee whiz, I thought you meant Christophermarlowe had scoped badly and I was reaching for the Valium tablets there.
That’s a big blow for Giovanni Canaletto fans and it might be pushing it to get a run into him before Epsom now. You would have to think the stats would be against him as a maiden winner going straight to the Derby.
It would worry me if I was on Sir Isaac Newton and going Chester maiden first time up this season. It’s not a progression I can recall in a Derby winner.
I read that Zawraq may miss the Derrinstown if the ground is soft. His alternative is the Irish Guineas, which would be less than ideal in my opinion, as I would prefer to see his stamina prowess tested over the intermediate trip and he is probably going to have to face Gleneagles if he does pitch up in the Guineas, surely a tough ask.
It’s been some season for crocks and shocks in the Classic build up, all the more reason to try to find a big price to small stakes.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Cannot see how Jack Hobbs is at the top of the betting for this years Derby.Having won a soft ground hcp albeit impressively & by some margin.6-1 though? seriously? Looking at his pedigree,not 1 of the last 11 winners of the Derby have Halling,Swain or Diesis in there last 4 generations.That should be enough to put anyone off backing him for the Derby.
Personally I think the Derby picture is currently very murky & with the news that A.O’Brien intends to run Hans Holbein only in the Chester Vase things are’nt getting any clearer.Having been through the pedigrees of most of the favourites in the Derby & Oaks this is 1 horse that I have to admit I have overlooked.By Montjeu out of a Shirley Heights mare I dont foresee stamina being a problem.The grandam Llyn Gwynant was smart to,winning twice @ Group 3 level over 1m.Currently available @ anywhere between 25’s & 66/1 should he win the Vase smartly on Thursday it would probably catapult him into favourtism for the Derby.
Having shredded ante post vouchers over this weekend on Ol’Man River & Found & still holding 1 on Ol’Man River for the Derby its probably best to wait until the day of the race! If Michael Tabor freely admits he doesnt back ante post what chance do us mere mortals have?It would worry me if I was on Sir Isaac Newton and going Chester maiden first time up this season. It’s not a progression I can recall in a Derby winner.
I’m on Sir Isaac Newton at 20/1 and while I was initially a bit put off by this sort of prep, I can see the sense in it. They’ll get to see how he handles a tight left handed track, and they’ll also get to see how he handles travelling. It gives Moore a chance to ride him without having to choose him over another Ballydoyle animal, which he’d likely have to in most of the Derby trials. If he can’t win tomorrow he won’t be winning a Derby, so I’m obviously hoping for an impressive win.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
It would worry me if I was on Sir Isaac Newton and going Chester maiden first time up this season. It’s not a progression I can recall in a Derby winner.I’m on Sir Isaac Newton at 20/1 and while I was initially a bit put off by this sort of prep, I can see the sense in it. They’ll get to see how he handles a tight left handed track, and they’ll also get to see how he handles travelling. It gives Moore a chance to ride him without having to choose him over another Ballydoyle animal, which he’d likely have to in most of the Derby trials. If he can’t win tomorrow he won’t be winning a Derby, so I’m obviously hoping for an impressive win.
Well, it’s a god awful maiden that Sir Isaac Newton is running in tomorrow and he surely needs to win this by miles to be a Derby winner in waiting.
He’s about 1/3 in the early betting and his main opponent is the Gosden horse Keble, who took an eight length pasting off Intilaaq before that horse’s disappointing run the the 2000 Guineas. It’s 14/1 bar the two and it’s a disappointing field that Sir Isaac Newton really needs to dismantle tomorrow.
It should be all about getting a run into him and seeing how he copes with the track. He’ll probably win easily and shrink to a silly price based on breeding and who trains him, we won’t really get much information about how good he is in this company.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>thehorsesmouth wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
It would worry me if I was on Sir Isaac Newton and going Chester maiden first time up this season. It’s not a progression I can recall in a Derby winner.I’m on Sir Isaac Newton at 20/1 and while I was initially a bit put off by this sort of prep, I can see the sense in it. They’ll get to see how he handles a tight left handed track, and they’ll also get to see how he handles travelling. It gives Moore a chance to ride him without having to choose him over another Ballydoyle animal, which he’d likely have to in most of the Derby trials. If he can’t win tomorrow he won’t be winning a Derby, so I’m obviously hoping for an impressive win.
Well, it’s a god awful maiden that Sir Isaac Newton is running in tomorrow and he surely needs to win this by miles to be a Derby winner in waiting.
He’s about 1/3 in the early betting and his main opponent is the Gosden horse Keble, who took an eight length pasting off Intilaaq before that horse’s disappointing run the the 2000 Guineas. It’s 14/1 bar the two and it’s a disappointing field that Sir Isaac Newton really needs to dismantle tomorrow.
It should be all about getting a run into him and seeing how he copes with the track. He’ll probably win easily and shrink to a silly price based on breeding and who trains him, we won’t really get much information about how good he is in this company.
Turned over at 1/6 and that’s a big disappointment.
The Gosden horse was pulled out and it seemed as straight-forward a task as you could wish for today. No doubt they’ll probably say the ground was soft and they weren’t hard on him once it was clear he has a battle on late in the race. The pair were well clear but Cymro had been beaten five times and was rated 79, beaten in a three grand Ripon Maiden last time.
That seems miles away from Derby form and Sir Isaac Newton is 25/1 for the Derby now.
Come on Aiden, run Gleneagles, you know he’s your only real chance.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Did Newton invent the telescope?
They are going to need one to see where he is when the rest past the finishing post.Blackbeard to conquer the World
As far as the Derby is concerned surely the best tactics are to wait until after all the relevant trials are completed or you are just playing russian roulette with your money.
The last TEN Derby winners all ran in a recognised trial.
The trials being…..
English and Irish Guineas
Prix Greffulhe in France.
The Dante at York.
The Chester Vase.All ten of the Derby winners ran in the first three of one of these races and some in more than one!!
I shall be waiting until after the Dante before having a bet on the Derby.
Kevin Buckley, Coolmore’s UK representative, said of Sir Isaac Newton: “We would have liked to have won, but he hasn’t run since October.
“We needed to get him to the track. It wasn’t ideal, the ground changing, and he’d prefer better ground than that.
“We’ll get him home, see how he is and Aidan can make some decisions.”
Aiden can make some decisions.!
He’d be a bigger genius than Newton if this one was to win the Derby.
I agree with Steve in that Gleaneagles would be a much better option.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Did Newton invent the telescope?
They are going to need one to see where he is when the rest past the finishing post.Aiden was watching via Telescope, doesn’t look like he was impressed:-
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
1/6 and coming down to earth with a bump…what else would you expect given a name like that?
[/quote Steve Caution]
Come on Aiden, run Gleneagles, you know he’s your only real chance.
[/quote]Still 4 weeks till Derby day Steve and hopefully Giovanni Canaletto will go to York,he’s Coolmores best 11/2m horse for sure.I can still see ‘John F Kennedy’ and ‘Sir Isaac Newton’ lining up at Epsom too.No way will they run there top miler ‘Gleneagles’ at Epsom.
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