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Zark any thoughts on my SIR ISAAC NEWTON he my main bet
Any french 3yos you think do well this year in terms of french classics.VEDOUMA a horse i like but needs middle distance trips.
I’ve been backing Giovanni Canaletto for this years Derby since last year and my only guide to his well being is Betfair,trouble is for a general 20/1 shot he’s been drifting on a weekly basis to 28’s and me being me keeps taking it.The machine is a pretty good guide to whats going on with a horse but just now and then some numpty tries to be greedy and pushes one out to silly odds.Of course Coolmore dominate this years Derby and have half a dozen in with a serious chance,my fellow has more scope than any of his stablemates and is guaranteed to get 11/2m unlike several other of O’Briens.This well bred colt is a half brother to Duke of Marmalade one of my fav horses and of course he’s a full brother to Ruler of the world a Derby winner himself.I hope ‘Giovanni’ turns up at York and paints his own masterpiece.
Jack Hobbs has been raised a whopping 24 lbs by the handicapper for his recent romp. His new rating is 109 and for comparison purposes we can use last season’s Racing Post Trophy winner Elm Park, who some people think will be a leading light at Epsom, and note that Jack Hobbs is now 8 lbs behind the Group 1 winner’s 117 mark.
Looking at Jack Hobbs for the first time I noted that his winning margin looked more like 9 lengths, rather than the official 12 lengths given but he was eased close home and was value for more. He looked to me like he’ll get the Derby trip no problem and it also looked like he can take a lead and stretch away at the business end.
Jack Hobbs is a fine looking colt with plenty of body to him, he’s got ample scope and if I was a Timeform pundit I would give him the big P for improvement at this stage. I am not sure if he is still a bit green but he looked slightly ungainly still and if I had a negative at the moment it would be whether he’d be totally at home on the Epsom track with all its vagaries.
10/1 is skinny enough before we see the 2000 Guineas and we could see something like the previously mentioned Elm Park or Ol’ Man River come out of the first Classic as a warm favourite for Epsom. On the other hand, a couple of flops might throw the betting wide open, with John F Kennedy already a disappointment and Sir Isaac Newton still to lose his maiden tag and the race only 39 days away.
Stable mate Christophermarlowe sits on the same 109 rating as Jack Hobbs but you get the feeling Gosden is more lukewarm about that Colt, with his participation in the Chester Vase not a certainty. Jack Hobbs looks the more classy sort of the two.
John Gosden has entered Jack Hobbs in the Eclipse and I think that is a strong statement of intent, I get the feeling this may be a better horse than Western Hymn, who couldn’t quite cut it in the Derby last year. I think it might be unwise to under-estimate the potential of this colt, who made his debut the day after Silviniaco Conti won the King George.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Chester was Ruler of the World’s second run but I’m nitpicking.
A friend of mine has been backed Ol’ Man River at big prices for a long time, so followed him in with a pony at 40s, feeling the need to back JFK at 12s before his run at Irish Champions Weekend.
Nothing else has come out yet where you think ‘wow’ but I’d be inclined to agree that I’m looking forward to the 3.6million purchase Sir Isaac Newton, Secret Gesture’s half-brother. He was entered to run last week before not taking his engagement.
Take the price on Ol’ Man River whilst you can – he goes 2/1 favourite for The Derby after winning today!
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>JJMSports wrote:</div>
Chester was Ruler of the World’s second run but I’m nitpicking.A friend of mine has been backed Ol’ Man River at big prices for a long time, so followed him in with a pony at 40s, feeling the need to back JFK at 12s before his run at Irish Champions Weekend.
Nothing else has come out yet where you think ‘wow’ but I’d be inclined to agree that I’m looking forward to the 3.6million purchase Sir Isaac Newton, Secret Gesture’s half-brother. He was entered to run last week before not taking his engagement.
Take the price on Ol’ Man River whilst you can – he goes 2/1 favourite for The Derby after winning today!
Even if he goes close he should shorten up, luckily I’ve got him at 20/1 already, so I don’t need to rush for the odds. There has been plenty of opinion that he won’t stay the Derby trip though and even the trainer isn’t sure.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Take the price on Ol’ Man River whilst you can – he goes 2/1 favourite for The Derby after winning today!
Might as well be 200/1 after that effort.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
With Ol’ Man River goosed, it looks worth risking Gleneagles at 10/1.
Stamina is the big question but class is a big counter to that.
If he gets the nod 10/1 will vanish.
It is a help that he’s a hold up horse and if he goes to the race you know he’ll be swinging on the bridle at some stage. I think 10/1 is worth risking. The double is bound to be tempting and the stable’s leading candidate in the betting prior to today has just stunk Nemwarket out.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hope your right Steve I backed him at 25/1 thinking he was more a Derby than Guineas horse….ooops
Blackbeard to conquer the World
On the racing post app, on the live stream after the race it said he’s been ruled out of the derby, so probably Irish Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes.
On the racing post app, on the live stream after the race it said he’s been ruled out of the derby, so probably Irish Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes.
That seems a bit odd, after having entered him for Epsom not that long ago, at the second stage. They surely knew then what he was going to be doing long term.
Ryan Moore said after the race that he though the horse was a miler but he’s got that mile today in good style and the way he runs would encourage me he’ll get a little further, if not the full Derby trip.
To me, going St James Palace etc will see him rack up a series of wins at mega odds-on and will be the same sort of experience we had with Kingman last year, minus the hammed up oohing and aahing about unsuitable ground. To me it’s not a route to legendary status the way the Guineas/Derby double is.
Gleneagles looks a lot more suitable candidate than Dawn Approach did in his year. We have a Derby betting field currently headed by a horse who won a Handicap race, albeit effortlessly. The Guineas is traditionally the class element heading to Epsom and there isn’t a horse in today’s field who cried out that he’d reverse form with Gleneagles over further at Epsom. His stable mate Ol’ Man River ran as flat as a witch’s bosom and to me he looked the sole candidate to enhance his Derby claims in today’s race. Moheet fans might feel their horse will appreciate the step up but Hannon and Derby is a comedy name double act that doesn’t appear on may billboards over the years, being slightly less successful than Lenny and Jerry were (Don’t mention The Krankies)
I am surprised they didn’t at least sleep on it before ruling it out and maybe they can leave Gleneagles’ Derby entry to Jim Bolger in the will, in case he does another New Approach in the future.
For me, Ol’ Man River’s Derby hopes went down the Swanee with Al Jolson today and it seems a bit rash to my eyes leaving the Ferrari in the garage and taking a Massey Ferguson to Epsom with John F Kennedy, who looked like he’d need the word “Lake” in the going description to have a prospect in the Derby when we last saw him.
Still if they line up at Epsom with “Quagmire-Lake in places, quicksand in the home straight” then it could all change.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I guess a lot of the thinking behind this is that he’s the only proper miler at Ballydoyle right now, while they seem to have quite a few potential 1m4f prospects (or at least seemed to before the John F Kennedy and Ol’ Man River flops). But, they still have Sir Isaac Newton, Giovanni Canaletto and Highland Reel (Christophermarlowe also runs in the Coolmore colours). All three are entered to race in the next seven days I think, so they will probably wait and see how these go. They can always change their plans afterwards. But, I think going the Giant’s Causeway route (stepping up in distance for maybe the Eclipse or Juddmonte International) was very much the plan from the off with Gleneagles.
Good call Sea Bird I agree I think Christopher Marlow was laid out for the Derby. I am inclined to think that Giovani Canaletto will be there along with Sir Isaac Newton then one another from Highland Reel, Ol Man River, Jamaica, John F Kennedy. Ballydoyle have so many options now I just don’t see them risking their stud fees on Glen Eagles when they don’t have to.
I guess a lot of the thinking behind this is that he’s the only proper miler at Ballydoyle right now, while they seem to have quite a few potential 1m4f prospects (or at least seemed to before the John F Kennedy and Ol’ Man River flops). But, they still have Sir Isaac Newton, Giovanni Canaletto and Highland Reel (Christophermarlowe also runs in the Coolmore colours). All three are entered to race in the next seven days I think, so they will probably wait and see how these go. They can always change their plans afterwards. But, I think going the Giant’s Causeway route (stepping up in distance for maybe the Eclipse or Juddmonte International) was very much the plan from the off with Gleneagles.
I would agree with all of that and I didn’t have Gleneagles down as a Derby horse myself but they chose to enter him at the second stage and I had to ask myself why they were doing that. Chester and York will come and go and if some of the candidates don’t perform as expected it wouldn’t surprise me if they revisit the Derby idea with Gleneagles.
Highland Reel has a bit to prove in both form and trip, while Sir Isaac is still a maiden a month from the race. Giovanni Canaletto has to make big progress still and while that’s perfectly feasible it is onlt Gleneagles that has looked the part for the stable thus far this season.
Christophermarlowe has a solid enough look but he’s still got a fair way to go. Jockey and Trainer comments haven’t been that bullish and the talk and entries suggest Jack Hobbs is a fair way ahead of the Coolmore owned horse in the ability department.
The Derby looks like being a bit short on quality this year and there are plenty of doubts. Elm Park could be scuppered by going and the track, there are doubts about the stamina of some of the other contenders. The owners may yet look and see that there is a Derby there waiting to be won and they could be going there with a Guineas winner who isn’t going to do a Dawn Approach and can sit in behind horses before using his undoubted ability to find more in the closing stages.
There is only one Derby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I know I said in the thread previously that Zawraq’s trip was 8-10f but I’ve backed him at 8/1 and I think he’s my best hope having backed Ol Man River at 20/1 and Sir Isaac Newton at 25/1.
Aiden O’Brien said today that the Irish Guineas was the likely target as long as the ground is good. Perhaps soft ground is the best chance anything is going to have of reversing the form with him over a mile.
Andre Fabre seemed keen to have another crack at Gleneagles but I think we are entering the realms of Hans Christian Andersen if considering a reversal of placings should they meet again on similar ground. Let’s face it, for all that Territories ran really well, he was like a crankshaft in a car engine on Saturday, ie he got Piston from above.
Aiden said that his two for Chester this week were Smugglers Cove in the Dee Stakes and Giovanni Canaletto in the Chester Vase. I am more interested in the latter horse, who has been supported over the last few days. I don’t think Smugglers Cove is even in the Derby but the well bred and raw looking maiden winner Giovanni Canaletto looks sure to be there if he’s anywhere near becoming the new “Best horse I’ve ever trained” for the O’Brien team.
Christophermarlowe could lock horns with Giovanni in the Chester Vase, as he is also entered and Gosden said he would probably head there if it didn’t come too soon after his last run. It should make for a race where we can put a line through one of them afterwards if they do face-off.
Sir Isaac Newton is entered in a maiden race at Chester this week and that would be alarm bells for me if he lined up there. I am assuming he isn’t going to keep that engagement though, since the trainer never mentioned him when asked about runners this week. He is in the Dante the following week and if he does go there he is going to find life potentially tough, with Derby favourite Jack Hobbs currently favourite for that race and last seasons Racing Post Trophy winner Elm Park sitting next in the betting for the traditional “Premium Derby Trial”
It will be a tough task for Sir Isaac Newton to shed his maiden tag in that company and if he were to run in it and win, he would be a worthy warm favourite for the Derby itself. To me he’s no value at his current odds for Epsom.
I can’t believe that Ol’ Man River has been backed down again for Epsom after running an absolute stinker. Aiden said it was “just one of those things” but I wouldn’t touch him with the proverbial barge pole. My gut feeling is a tactical withdrawal and a regroup for a soft Group 1 to put on the CV.
If Gleneagles doesn’t turn up I think it’s looking a Derby up for grabs and I’d rather play a fun couple of quid in search of some each-way fun at huge odds.
Step forward Michael Stoute’s Disegno.
I fancied him for the Fielden but he looked like he needed the run and a bit further that day, where he was third to John Gosden’s Golden Horn. The son of Fastnet Rock is entered up in the Dee Stakes this week and I can see him being suited by that race. He needs to improve but I think he’ll come on a bit and be suited by the extra distance. The Stoute stable are showing slow signs of emerging from their slumber and in an open year I’ll have a punt on Disegno, despite the lack of sexiness about his profile. He holds entries in the Dante, Derby and Edward VII at Royal Ascot, so I am assuming they think he’s got some promise. At double carpet twice he’s my kind of odds.
2015 Derby Disegno each-way 66/1 Stan James
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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