The Derby 2015

[stevecaution]

Zarkava wrote:

11/1 :DDDDDDDDD too funny

He’s as low as 8/1 with some firms.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Zarkava]

John Francombe ridden by John McCririck’s got more chance

[stevecaution]

ivanjica wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
Grey Lion misses the Classic Trial at Sandown due to a high temperature. He was 2/1 2nd Favourite for the race behind Commemorative, the Charlie Hills colt who won the Autumn Stakes before running 7th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile won by Hootenanny.

I would probably have been opposing the favourite and it’s a shame Grey Lion doesn’t get the chance to show what sort of chance he might have had at Epsom.

It will be interesting to see if they find an alternative prep race or just go straight to Epsom.

Commemorative went off 4/6 fav and was tailed off stone last in the Classic Trial. I wanted to oppose him with Grey Lion because I have seen a few horses now who have run on concrete in the Breeders Cup and then disappoint the following season. That was a pathetic effort from Charlie Hills’ colt today and the only pertinent point you could make regarding the impact on the Derby was that today’s winner ran behind Christophermarlowe at Sandown last year.

Its been a dismal couple of weeks for favourite backers. I don’t know whether I am recalling through rose tinted specs, but it did seem 20+ years a go that there were certain big yards that you could follow with confidence at this time of year when the money was down.

Charlie Hills had a right go at Sandown regarding the going today. He feels they are catering to tomorrow’s jump horses.

I assume Charlie Hills knew when he entered Commemorative that there was a National Hunt card the following day. He has now said that he’s not going to take “These good horses” to the meeting in the future.

Personally speaking, I wouldn’t be putting a run where my horse was tailed off thirty odd lengths behind the winner down to the state of the ground. There was something far more wrong with that effort than the going.

In the past three years or so, several horses who won or ran well in the Breeders Cup Juvenile races have come out at three and struggled to find their form again. I think it’s quite a tough gig for a young horse travelling all the way to the USA at the fag end of the season to run on a surface more akin to an airport runway. I wouldn’t put my horse over there if I thought it had a chance of making a good three year old. It is all well landing a big pot of money if that is what you desire but long term I’m not so sure it helps a horse to progress naturally.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Zarkava wrote:

John Francombe ridden by John McCririck’s got more chance

I’d pay good money to see that combination the other way round and I’d be telling Francome not to spare the whip despite Big Mac’s opposition to the persuader.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Running Rein]

It was an impressive effort by Jack Hobbs and he looked a horse of real promise. One thing I think should be nailed immediately though is that he categorically did not win by 12 lengths.
It looked a fair bit less than that when watching live and I took a screenshot and reckon he won by a tad over 8 lengths, give or take a neck.
The thing is they no longer measured distances by actual distance (I know), they now use time and the length per second metric is derived via the official going description. I don’t think anyone now thinks the official going at Sandown was accurate today but the Jack Hobbs winning distance is evidence for how much out it actually was.
There are only two possible scenarios today…the ground was actually Good to Soft, possibly soft (official going Good, good to firm in places) or they finished absolutely legless.
I favour the former.

[Nathan Hughes]

Would go close in the Leger.
More Gosden’s territory then the Derby other than Benny.

Blackbeard to conquer the World

[stevecaution]

stevecaution wrote:

As for Commemorative, I thought he was on a Fools Errand going to the Breeders Cup on firm ground at a greyhound track. Those conditions were never likely to suit the horse and we have seen a few who took in that race and won prove disappointing the following year. Perhaps Charlie Hills will rue the decision yet.

Just in case anyone thinks I was after-timing with Commemorative, the above was written on 16th of February.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

darren83 wrote:

Steve what you think of DECORATED KNIGHT ran in Doncaster maiden was 2nd form very good winner won at group level.Will this horse stay 1m4 on his breeding

Decorated Knight runs tomorrow Darren.

He’s running in the 4.35 at Ripon, which is a maiden won by Willie Haggas’ Satellite last season. Satellite never won again in a disappointing season.

Roger Varian’s colt is hot favourite tomorrow, at about 2/5, for the 10f contest and will need to win in good style to make his Dante and Derby entries look justified.

The stable had a runaway winner with Intilaaq in a maiden last week but they have had a very quiet month for winners, with just 2 from 24 runners in the past three weeks.

He should win tomorrow but it’s going to be a tough leap from here to the Dante only 19 days later.

Commemorative, who beat him on his debut was a total flop in the Classic Trial today, although the trainer feels he was misled on the going report.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Zarkava]

Nathan Hughes wrote:

Would go close in the Leger.
More Gosden’s territory then the Derby other than Benny.

He’s also got Christophermarlowe and maybe Golden Horn for that as well. Looks like a good year for Gosden stayers.

[stevecaution]

Jack Hobbs is a best price 10/1 for the Derby now.

I was having a think back through previous winners to remember any horse that started the season at a similar level and my mind went back to Luca Cumani’s High Rise in 1998.

High Rise started his campaign off at Pontefract over 10f in a class C limited race for horses rated from 0-90 and won as the 2/1 favourite, netting a rather modest five grand for his trouble. He then won the Lingfield Derby Trial and The Derby itself by narrow margins.

With Jack Hobbs having started his season rated 85 I think that is a reasonable comparison and I suppose it gives hope at this stage to anyone who has taken bigger prices on Gosden’s runaway handicap snip.

At the moment the Derby is pretty wide open, with a couple of the O’Brien “money” horses having fluffed their lines early doors. After the Guineas, the Derrinstown, the Lingfield Derby Trial, the Chester races and The Dante the situation is going to look very different in all probability and it will be interesting to see if the current 10/1 on Jack Hobbs looks like roses or manure?

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Zarkava]

He’s almost favourite for the Derby on Betfair. I’d love an emoticon which portrays me rolling on the floor laughing, the closest of which is this;

AP’s got more chance of winning the Derby on Astonville

[stevecaution]

Zarkava wrote:

He’s almost favourite for the Derby on Betfair. I’d love an emoticon which portrays me rolling on the floor laughing, the closest of which is this;

AP’s got more chance of winning the Derby on Astonville

Any good?

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Zarkava]

Perfect, thanks

Edit – I can’t edit my old post so it’ll have to just go here

[stevecaution]

stevecaution wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>darren83 wrote:</div>
Steve what you think of DECORATED KNIGHT ran in Doncaster maiden was 2nd form very good winner won at group level.Will this horse stay 1m4 on his breeding

Decorated Knight runs tomorrow Darren.

He’s running in the 4.35 at Ripon, which is a maiden won by Willie Haggas’ Satellite last season. Satellite never won again in a disappointing season.

Roger Varian’s colt is hot favourite tomorrow, at about 2/5, for the 10f contest and will need to win in good style to make his Dante and Derby entries look justified.

The stable had a runaway winner with Intilaaq in a maiden last week but they have had a very quiet month for winners, with just 2 from 24 runners in the past three weeks.

He should win tomorrow but it’s going to be a tough leap from here to the Dante only 19 days later.

Commemorative, who beat him on his debut was a total flop in the Classic Trial today, although the trainer feels he was misled on the going report.

No Derby for Decorated Knight after that effort, turned over well odds on and the stable form concerns were warranted. Looks a long way short of the top after than run.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Ghost of Rob V]

I’m not gonna get carried away by Jack Hobbs at the moment. While his 12 length victory was very pleasant to the eye and looks an imposing type, he reminds me of a horse called Pirate Army who, in 1989, also scored by 12 lengths (Harvester Graduation Stakes) on his second run … but later got crushed by Cacoethes in the Lingfield Derby Trial.

[darren83]

Nice to see you back Zark hope you been ok

And who your bets for the derby

[Zarkava]

Don’t really fancy anything at the moment! Zawraq seems the best contender to me so far though

[Author]

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