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Just five runners in the Epsom Derby Trial and, as expected, Godolphin’s Future Empire provides the main challenge to John Gosden’s Christophermarlowe.
Looking at the Derby betting and seeing horses pretty skinny at the head of the market, I decided to throw a couple of quid at Christophermarlowe at 33/1 with Ladbrokes. I just have to hope he can justify the support with a good performance tomorrow.
Dermot Weld’s Zawraq seems crazy odds at 8/1 and I’ll leave him to more intrepid punters than myself.
Friday’s Classic Trial at Sandown looks sure to cut up between now and raceday. If Grey Lion lines up it seems likely he won’t have too daunting a task on his hands. He would need to win impressively to justify his 16/1 odds for Epsom and knowing bookmakers, he’ll be as short as a carrot if he wins. I will be leaving him alone but good luck if anyone is on him ante-post.
Friday’s card at Sandown looks decent, with The Gordon Richards Stakes having an interesting look and the Group 2 Bet365 Mile also on the card. I have an eye out for Stoute’s Moonlight Sonata in the Fillies Maiden but will need to see what sort of odds she is. The daughter of Galileo went down by a nose in a Newmarket maiden and looks sure to improve this year.
We’ll see if Christophermarlowe can have a happier ending than his namesake, who was a playwright in Elizabethan times, stabbed to death, aged only 29.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Epsom is a unique and wonderful track but it is not one that trainers want to run their very best three year olds on more than once. One is easily enough visits to the Surrey switchback and the first Saturday in June is the day. In my view a colt that was regarded as a top prospect or strong Derby hope would be aimed at another trial and would not be risked at Epsom in tomorrow’s trial.
The risk of an injury (especially on good or faster ground like tomorrow) or loss of confidence/balance on the camber (worse at this meeting than Derby due to rail being out) is much greater than the ‘experience’ gained in my view.
Therefore, if a colt runs in the trial tomorrow, I would automatically rule him out for the big day, as in my opinion his connections don’t think enough of him to safeguard him for the big one.
However, tomorrow’s race is, I believe, a bit better endowed than previous years and is a good heat in its own right.
Future Empire looks the one.Epsom is a unique and wonderful track but it is not one that trainers want to run their very best three year olds on more than once. One is easily enough visits to the Surrey switchback and the first Saturday in June is the day. In my view a colt that was regarded as a top prospect or strong Derby hope would be aimed at another trial and would not be risked at Epsom in tomorrow’s trial.
The risk of an injury (especially on good or faster ground like tomorrow) or loss of confidence/balance on the camber (worse at this meeting than Derby due to rail being out) is much greater than the ‘experience’ gained in my view.
Therefore, if a colt runs in the trial tomorrow, I would automatically rule him out for the big day, as in my opinion his connections don’t think enough of him to safeguard him for the big one.
However, tomorrow’s race is, I believe, a bit better endowed than previous years and is a good heat in its own right.
Future Empire looks the one.I don’t normally consider a horse from the Epsom Derby Trial but this horse has won at Epsom before and it looks a Derby where quite a lot of the main candidates could be having stamina doubts the day they line up. The Guineas will probably see one or two emerge with enhanced prospects and probably more than that who will have disappointed for one reason or another on the day.
Frankie has hinted that this race is a nice pot of money and that it’s no Dante or even Lingfield Derby Trial. I have a feeling that something can emerge with a bit of stamina and a chance of placing in the Derby as some of the more fancied ones fail to get the trip.
Future Empire was 9/4 in a few places this morning and looks a bit weak. He’s narrowly the top on ratings but I prefer the Gosden stable in terms of reliability and the horse has won here before. He’s not a bet for today at odds on but a bit of fun at double carpet for me. You can be sure some of the fancied ones will be tailed off like the old washing line on Derby Day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yes, a nice performance from Christophermarlowe and maybe I have underestimated the regard in which he is held by connections. Certainly a solid effort today though I still struggle to see him beating Ol’ Man River.
I guess that initially CM just didn’t strike me as a classic contender in the eye in the way that some colts do…
“who ever loved that loved not at first sight?”, as someone once said.Christophermarlowe just looks very slow to me. Never ridden with any confidence so far. It’s just kick 3-out and keep going.
Christophermarlowe just looks very slow to me. Never ridden with any confidence so far. It’s just kick 3-out and keep going.
Gosden said he might go to the Chester Vase but is a bit worried if the two week gap is sufficient. It’s his belief that the horse will need a mile and a half to be seen to best effect.
Not every horse is blessed with a good turn of foot and a horse can only try to do the best he can with the talent he has.
It apparently took Frankie a long time to pull him up after the race and he has stated the horse will stay a mile and a half and that he handles the track. Both Frankie and John Gosden were pleased with the way the horse won today and Gosden said the horse has a lovely, easy going manner. Those are all positives thinking ahead if he does line up in the Derby.
I noticed that Christophermarlowe carried 13 lbs more than the horse who won the Handicap over the same trip in the very next race. The four year old Collaboration was an impressive winner for Andrew Balding, winning by a similar margin to the Gosden three year old but the younger horse clocked a winning time more than three seconds faster than the older horse who carried 8st 2lbs to his 9st 1lb. Collaboration looks set for a sharp rise in the weights after his win today and perhaps one of the experts could calculate the merits of the younger horse, seriously disadvantaged on strict weight for age terms, clocking the faster time, and in a small field race.
I thought I would revisit Epsom’s corresponding 2014 and 2013 meetings for comparison with these same two races, run back to back, in those years. In both cases the older horses in the handicap were faster than the Derby Trial winner. It’s a long way to the real deal and the race has a lousy record but that is pretty much explained by the best horses rarely turning up in the first place.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
This is what I wrote 18 days back, for me this horse was laid out for this race and has stamina to burn, whether he is good enough to win depends on the run of the race but pleased especially if he gets Frankie on board as well.
Steve how do you rate Christopher Marlow as he has interesting owners Michael Tabor and Rachel Hood, trained by John Gosden and an interesting pedigree. I had 33’s about this horse the other day and was on line betting when a message appeared saying the book price had changed to 25’s which would indicate that either the bookies had a major change of heart or a lot of money had been laid which I suspect may be the latter especially with Michael Tabor’s background. he would be in the know as to how good the O’Brien horses are. The horse has a Galieo line on the dam side and the sires line shows A.P Indy and Seattle Slew so looks like he has stamina as well.
Grey Lion misses the Classic Trial at Sandown due to a high temperature. He was 2/1 2nd Favourite for the race behind Commemorative, the Charlie Hills colt who won the Autumn Stakes before running 7th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile won by Hootenanny.
I would probably have been opposing the favourite and it’s a shame Grey Lion doesn’t get the chance to show what sort of chance he might have had at Epsom.
It will be interesting to see if they find an alternative prep race or just go straight to Epsom.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I have an eye out for Stoute’s Moonlight Sonata in the Fillies Maiden but will need to see what sort of odds she is. The daughter of Galileo went down by a nose in a Newmarket maiden and looks sure to improve this year.
Was available at 7/4 with Bet365. 6/4 Now
I think she’ll win this race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Grey Lion misses the Classic Trial at Sandown due to a high temperature. He was 2/1 2nd Favourite for the race behind Commemorative, the Charlie Hills colt who won the Autumn Stakes before running 7th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile won by Hootenanny.
I would probably have been opposing the favourite and it’s a shame Grey Lion doesn’t get the chance to show what sort of chance he might have had at Epsom.
It will be interesting to see if they find an alternative prep race or just go straight to Epsom.
Commemorative went off 4/6 fav and was tailed off stone last in the Classic Trial. I wanted to oppose him with Grey Lion because I have seen a few horses now who have run on concrete in the Breeders Cup and then disappoint the following season. That was a pathetic effort from Charlie Hills’ colt today and the only pertinent point you could make regarding the impact on the Derby was that today’s winner ran behind Christophermarlowe at Sandown last year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Can’t believe that Jack Hobbs is as low as 8/1 for the Derby after winning a Handicap off 85 today.
OK, he has hosed in by 12 lengths and is clearly way ahead of his mark but he’s nearly favourite for The Derby now and I can’t recall a horse going handicap/Derby winner in the same spring/summer.
16/1 is the best price available as I speak but I expect the lemmings will be boarding the bandwagon shortly because the punters love horses who win by a long way.
8/1 is a crazy price but he was entered in Dante/Derby and backed as if defeat was out of the question today.
8/1 Jack Hobbs? That’s just not Cricket, but you get that in Boxing Harry.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Irrespective of his betting price for the Derby, I think that was just the spine tingling moment I have been hoping for since the start of this flat season. I might be building myself up for eventual disappointment, but Jack Hobbs, get ready for my (un)requited love throughout this season. It doesn’t hurt that he apparently came home quicker than the 114 rated Western Hymn, without hardly being asked for any significant effort whatsoever (not that I usually care much about sectionals). I’m happy to take the 16/1 shot at the moment.
The last Epsom Derby winner that I can find to have contested a handicap in his 3yo season (excluding the Free Handicap which is a recognised trial classic trial) is Larkspur who was defeated in the 7f Madrid Handicap at the Curragh.
Are there any others prior to Larkspur?
Obviously the stats seem to be stacked against Jack Hobbs for that reason, however the manner of his victory was striking and he was very much a talking horse in the past week or so. Godson’s yard have had it right off today. You could get 7/2 last night for today’s race. From a December Wolverhampton maiden to credible Derby fancy, who would have thought it!
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
Grey Lion misses the Classic Trial at Sandown due to a high temperature. He was 2/1 2nd Favourite for the race behind Commemorative, the Charlie Hills colt who won the Autumn Stakes before running 7th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile won by Hootenanny.I would probably have been opposing the favourite and it’s a shame Grey Lion doesn’t get the chance to show what sort of chance he might have had at Epsom.
It will be interesting to see if they find an alternative prep race or just go straight to Epsom.
Commemorative went off 4/6 fav and was tailed off stone last in the Classic Trial. I wanted to oppose him with Grey Lion because I have seen a few horses now who have run on concrete in the Breeders Cup and then disappoint the following season. That was a pathetic effort from Charlie Hills’ colt today and the only pertinent point you could make regarding the impact on the Derby was that today’s winner ran behind Christophermarlowe at Sandown last year.
Its been a dismal couple of weeks for favourite backers. I don’t know whether I am recalling through rose tinted specs, but it did seem 20+ years a go that there were certain big yards that you could follow with confidence at this time of year when the money was down.
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