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<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Marginal Value wrote:</div>
On this thread, both before and after the Derby, comments have been made that Golden Horn’s pedigree, in relation to an indication of his stamina, have implied that he had a low probability of staying the Derby distance. One post said “… a complete freak to win at that distance with his pedigree …”. I think we all know that numbers do not tell the whole story about anything to do with racing, but there is a numerical system of assessing stamina called the Dosage System, which has been around since the middle of the last century and still going strong. The Dosage Index (DI) of Golden Horn indicates his pedigree has more stamina than six other Derby winners in the last twenty-five years, and sixteen other Derby winners in the last fifty years. His pedigree indicates his stamina is well within the normal range for Derby winners, and certainly not in the range of “freak”.You can check the Dosage Index of most thoroughbreds at http://www.pedigreequery.com. The lower the DI, the more stamina a horse is likely to possess.
Steve Miller, for my money the UK’s foremost authority on the dosage system, disagrees with you although it is clearly also incorrect to label his getting the trip in realms of ‘freak’.
I did say: “.. we all know that numbers do not tell the whole story about anything to do with racing …”. Just ask Gingertipster about Timeform Ratings taken at face value, with no other judgements taken into account!
Steve Miller (in Europe) and Steven A. Roman (in the Americas) are of course the main drivers for Chefs-de-Race and Dosage Methods in the world, and my post was not in disagreement with any of the numbers in Steve Miller’s article about the Derby. But any set of data has variation, and although Golden Horn’s stamina index was not as close to the optimum as was Jack Hobbs’s or Elm Park’s, it was still better than 16 of the last 50 Derby winners. It was just an indication, from one respected numerical method, that Golden Horn’s stamina might well be up to the job of winning the Derby.
Steve Miller’s opinion was that Golden Horn had “… only an outside chance of staying the trip… “. But Golden Horn’s DI figure relative to the DI figures of Derby winners of the past fifty years indicated he had about a 2/1 chance that his stamina would be good enough, not an outside chance. It just makes the value of his SP on the day look fairly poor, that’s all.
The Derby winners with worse DI figures were Sea The Stars, Oath, Benny The Dip, Erhaab, Commander In Chief, Dr Devious, Secreto, Shergar, Henbit, Troy, The Minstrel, Roberto, Mill Reef, Nijinsky, Blakeney, and Sir Ivor.
I’ve never heard of Steve Miller. Who could consider such a person ‘highly respected’ if he simply says a horse has only an outside chance of staying the trip? Was that comment qualified in any way? Anyone with even a couple of years’ experience watching racing could see that Golden Horn was strongest at the end of his races, not least in the Dante. Whatever the science or art of breeding says about such a horse, your eyes tell you something else. Which are you going to trust?
He could have been from the purest line of sprinters ever bred, but Golden Horn’s racing style carried a strong indication that not only would he stay 12furlongs, but that trip was what he actually wanted to show his best form. Ironically, had the Derby been over 10f, there’s a fair chance he would not have won.
I accept that dosages and breeding study have their place when evidence is sparse, but the number of ‘experts’ who nailed their colours so solidly to the mast with GH is astounding, imo. All they were required to do was lift their heads from that deep position in pedigree books and watch the horse win the Dante, travelling at his strongest passing the post and taking considerable time and energy to pull up.
Always interested to read what people have to say and how they write, build an opinion and then try to second guess what they are going to be like before meeting them. How wrong you can be at times, here’s me looking forward to meeting TAPK yesterday at London Bridge 5 years after initially inviting him to join me at good old Epsom Downs. Brash, arrogant, self centred, arrogant and opinionated BUT who turns up but this articulate (ok with a terrible accent), polite, respectable, intelligent and friendly man who was a pleasure to meet. Great day, and OK my mate Carl can sup but he’s a young lad who works hard and enjoys a few pints! Gord is without doubt a very nice man and hopefully I will get to meet him again and maybe a few others after hearing his descriptions, I still have a tear of laughter with your vocabulary when describing Ginge
However one of the many subjects we discussed on the rattler was why I do not bother contributing to this forum any more! Well as I said there are some total arse wipes on here ( no offence meant Ginge) but when someone who has quite clearly represented Queen and Country for more than the 23 years that I did and has quite obviously served in such places as Nortern Ireland, Bosnia, Afghan and East Berlin a lot more than I can sit behind a screen like a faceless, spineless w**k stain of a coward insulting veterans who enjoyed their service but get fed up when tossers like Jonibakewank pipe up with their ridiculous comments I am sure you will fully understand why I simply cannot be bothered!! Of course it would be mightily grand if you could set up a meet at a racecourse and we could all see what Mr Jonibakewank has to offer then
lovely to meet the man that is purely a legend in TAPKI was hoping he wasn’t serious, Nat [stevecaution that is].
I think he just needs a break Moe.
Hope he’ll be back, a great poster and contributor to TRF.Blackbeard to conquer the World
I truly meant no offence Manchester and am very sorry that I did. It was a stupid comment that was meant to be a humorous joke about GDC who I have swapped posts with over the years. Had I known it would cause that sort of offence I would not have posted it and can quite see why you would be upset. I am REALLY sorry.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I wish he had buggered off earlier before knocking me out of the daylight cup……
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Rudeness on Internet forums is nothing new – I have been guilty of it myself.
Some people write things they wouldn’t say in real life, but some people sadly write things they would say in real life – they have no personal filter button.
And some just are presumptuous and over familiar with people they don’t actually know.
It’s a basic lack of respect.
But all of this is a side issue to the most important thing on this thread – I tipped the winner and put up the 16/1 third as best outsider!!!!
And what’s more did it all BEFORE the race in this after timer-infested neck of the woods. =D
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Zarkava wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Jonibake wrote:</div>
Of course he’s had to improve because his stablemate has improved. Look at the gaps back to the rest. The Dante was a very good race Zark and these are two very good horses who will both be rated well into the 120’s after this. As for your opinion on GH – yours would be a one man jury I reckon!!!The Dante 1-2-3 were 1-2-3 in the Derby betting before the gamble on Giovanni C. That suggests it was the only worthwhile trial.
Halling (Jack Hobbs’ sire) wasn’t good til he was a 4 year old. His dam was unraced but her dam only achieved blacktype at the end of her 3yo career, on her 17th start. Damsire, Swain, also took time getting up to Group 1 standard. Everything about Jack Hobbs, including the way his trainer trains his horses, suggests he’ll get better with age. The fact that he’s finished 2nd in a Derby suggests to me that he’s either a freak, or, more likely IMO, he’s run a solid race and the standard he’s currently at (a shadow of what he’s really capable of) was good enough to finish 2nd in a bad Derby.
For the time being I’m still erring on the skeptical side of things re. Golden Horn. Wouldn’t be the first time a super impressive Derby winner didn’t end up being all that.
I agree he’ll get better with age and I agree it was the best trial and said so all along. If you want to be skeptical that’s up to you but Zark you said many things on this thread that have proved to be way, way wide of the mark. You mocked those that backed Jack Hobbs after his wide margin win in a handicap simply because it WAS a handicap. You couldn’t see the horses potential. You stated that the Dante was not a good race and that GH beat trees. You were adamant that this was a terrible Derby (the worse you have seen in 13 years) and that GC would improve a stone past everything. That’s fine of course, we all get things wrong as you would see from my own thread on DLAP’s. The key is always to LEARN from your mistakes. But, rather than come on here and say “well done” to those like Steve that got it right, you push on with your theory that they are no good. I remember you doing exactly the same in Frankel’s year and falling flat on your face as Dream Ahead, Nathaniel, Excelebration and Frankel of course kept on winning. You provide some very well researched and interesting debate on here and I am really glad you are back. Just learn from those mistakes my friend – I don’t want you to end up skint!!!
Literally have no clue what you’re talking about, Jonibake. I have no recollection of saying anything anti Dream Ahead or Excelebration. I backed Excelebration in the QE2 he won! Nathaniel was a freak who broke the breeding trends on stamina-bred Galileo horses, Frankel I didn’t think would win the Guineas (owing to his breeding) but I don’t remember being anti-him in the slightest either!
Anyway, my theory is for the time being that Golden Horn might not be that good. I had the same theory about Authorized despite EVERYBODY saying I was wrong, yet he got beat at 4/7 and 11/10 on 2 of his next 3 starts :D so just wait, ye of little faith. Maybe it’ll turn out that I’m wrong, but I’ve not yet seen sufficient evidence to change my mind.
I think a lot of your post puts a lot of weight on the fact that Golden Horn won the Derby. To me it is just another race, although I do agree that it takes a certain kind of horse to win it. Golden Horn has shown a very impressive turn of foot every time he’s raced, but I’m just not sure what he’s beating is any good.
I truly meant no offence Manchester and am very sorry that I did. It was a stupid comment that was meant to be a humorous joke about GDC who I have swapped posts with over the years. Had I known it would cause that sort of offence I would not have posted it and can quite see why you would be upset. I am REALLY sorry.
Joni,I know you meant that as a joke but what we have to realise is these Military lads have a bond,like Gary says anyone who serves their country and puts their life on the line in some Sh*t scary situations deserves respect.I the legendary Ante-Post King embarrassed himself outside London bridge station by turning up in my smart beige Linen suit without a Tie.Gary,Carl and all Military personnel were decked in much finer livery.Gary gave me the Sergeant Major look that basically said ‘You Tw*t’! I apologised and ran off to the nearest Tie shop which in London is a mere stones throw away.Having been robbed of £30 for a little Purple number I did my best to keep up with Gary who covers 2yds for every one of mine.Of course I was bought up on Military bases and should have remembered ‘Officers Mess’ rules but because I have been looking forward to the occassion for so long I made a Boo boo.Military Men that make Boo boo’s get killed and its that mentality that reinforces the will to live life to the full.I am not just a great judge of horses but a great judge of Humans and in both Joni and GDC I have met two proper Gents who can mix it with all walks of life.I’ll arrange for you 2 to meet up at Nottingham to watch the ‘Nottingham is the best course in the land to run a maiden who wins The Derby stakes’…
Thanks Gord. As Ian said my comment showed a lack of respect and was overly familiar. I hope regular contributors would acknowledge that I am not generally an offensive poster and would forgive me this once.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Literally have no clue what you’re talking about, Jonibake. I have no recollection of saying anything anti Dream Ahead or Excelebration. I backed Excelebration in the QE2 he won! Nathaniel was a freak who broke the breeding trends on stamina-bred Galileo horses, Frankel I didn’t think would win the Guineas (owing to his breeding) but I don’t remember being anti-him in the slightest either!
Anyway, my theory is for the time being that Golden Horn might not be that good. I had the same theory about Authorized despite EVERYBODY saying I was wrong, yet he got beat at 4/7 and 11/10 on 2 of his next 3 starts
so just wait, ye of little faith. Maybe it’ll turn out that I’m wrong, but I’ve not yet seen sufficient evidence to change my mind.I think a lot of your post puts a lot of weight on the fact that Golden Horn won the Derby. To me it is just another race, although I do agree that it takes a certain kind of horse to win it. Golden Horn has shown a very impressive turn of foot every time he’s raced, but I’m just not sure what he’s beating is any good.
Fair enough Zark – time will tell.
My memory must be longer than yours. I was referring to our long running debate on Gord’s thread about the quality of horses in Frankel’s 3 yr old year when you posted things like this:
Abysmal crop of 3yos, have said it all along.
Joni, they are a rancid, rancid lot of horses, truly dire stuff. This is 2006 bad, really is.Anyway like you say, some you win some you lose. We’ll see what happens this year.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
However one of the many subjects we discussed on the rattler was why I do not bother contributing to this forum any more! Well as I said there are some total arse wipes on here ( no offence meant Ginge) but when someone who has quite clearly represented Queen and Country for more than the 23 years that I did and has quite obviously served in such places as Nortern Ireland, Bosnia, Afghan and East Berlin a lot more than I can sit behind a screen like a faceless, spineless w**k stain of a coward insulting veterans who enjoyed their service but get fed up when tossers like Jonibakewank pipe up with their ridiculous comments I am sure you will fully understand why I simply cannot be bothered!! Of course it would be mightily grand if you could set up a meet at a racecourse and we could all see what Mr Jonibakewank has to offer then
lovely to meet the man that is purely a legend in TAPKThanks for your service to the country GDC, it’s very much appreciated.
We all say things sometimes that cause offence without meaning them to. There was a time when I almost gave up this forum because of comments made by yourself and TAPK on my DLAP threads. Questioning my sincerity… Despite being part of the TAPK appreciation society, Joni refused to join in and it was his (and others) encouragement that persuaded me to stay. Sometimes felt your “banter” (if that’s what you want to call it) had a “pals stick together” sentiment. Can understand where that came from now.
Hope you stay GDC. Although do think you should ask yourself, if Joni had said “no offence meant GDC” after his comment – would it have been any better?
I’ve met both TAPK and Joni. Found TAPK funny and polite face to face; as you say, not at all what I was expecting! Can’t wish to meet a nicer chap than Joni, exactly as expected. Joni’s comment was out of character and surely deserves to be forgiven.
Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>moehat wrote:</div>
I was hoping he wasn’t serious, Nat [stevecaution that is].I think he just needs a break Moe.
Hope he’ll be back, a great poster and contributor to TRF.Seconded.
Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Zarkava wrote:</div>
Literally have no clue what you’re talking about, Jonibake. I have no recollection of saying anything anti Dream Ahead or Excelebration. I backed Excelebration in the QE2 he won! Nathaniel was a freak who broke the breeding trends on stamina-bred Galileo horses, Frankel I didn’t think would win the Guineas (owing to his breeding) but I don’t remember being anti-him in the slightest either!Anyway, my theory is for the time being that Golden Horn might not be that good. I had the same theory about Authorized despite EVERYBODY saying I was wrong, yet he got beat at 4/7 and 11/10 on 2 of his next 3 starts
so just wait, ye of little faith. Maybe it’ll turn out that I’m wrong, but I’ve not yet seen sufficient evidence to change my mind.I think a lot of your post puts a lot of weight on the fact that Golden Horn won the Derby. To me it is just another race, although I do agree that it takes a certain kind of horse to win it. Golden Horn has shown a very impressive turn of foot every time he’s raced, but I’m just not sure what he’s beating is any good.
Fair enough Zark – time will tell.
My memory must be longer than yours. I was referring to our long running debate on Gord’s thread about the quality of horses in Frankel’s 3 yr old year when you posted things like this:
Abysmal crop of 3yos, have said it all along.
Joni, they are a rancid, rancid lot of horses, truly dire stuff. This is 2006 bad, really is.Anyway like you say, some you win some you lose. We’ll see what happens this year.
To be fair, bar Excelebration and Dream Ahead running over the wrong trip, was I wrong?
You sound like a decent bloke, Jonibake – don’t beat yourself up over it.
Your apology was very gracious – and that is rare in Internet forums.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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