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Am on Jack Hobbs ante-post as the main bet, so hope he runs. Pretty sure he will as race times today were no worse than good, good-firm in places.
Have also backed Moheet at 40/1 today. Has a look of “Qualify” about him.
Saved on both Golden Horn and Storm The Stars.
Value Is EverythingThere are better 7/4 chances but now the ground looks to be Good or faster I cannot see beyond Golden Horn.
He is not bred to stay but shapes as if he will and was impressive over 10.4f at York.
An OR of 118 puts him in with the same chance as Australia at this stage last year.
Storm The Stars is my idea of the most progressive outsider.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’ve backed Moheet, Storm the Stars, Success Day and the 100/1 horse.
I think we are doing ok with Moheet Moe, his 50/1 has shrunk to half that price with many firms. He has to have a realistic chance of a place.
I wondered about Pat Dobbs taking the ride when Richard Hughes was available, and doesn’t have a ride in the Derby, but I’ve read that Pat rides him out every day and gets on with the horse really well, so I suppose it makes sense. I think he is a decent jockey in any case so I’m not overly concerned.
My intention was to wait till about now and also have a bet on whatever I thought was the most likely winner, but to be honest I can’t identify anything which I feel strongly enough about. I think there are holes in every horse in the race. Sorry to sound negative, but I don’t think there are any stand out superstars in the line up, unless Golden Horn gets the 12f in which case he could be special. I’m not convinced he will, so at 7/4 he’s not for me. I’m going to stick with Moheet and hope for the best.
Good luck with your other three Moe
Am on Jack Hobbs ante-post as the main bet, so hope he runs. Pretty sure he will as race times today were no worse than good, good-firm in places.
Have also backed Moheet at 40/1 today. Has a look of “Qualify” about him.
Saved on both Golden Horn and Storm The Stars.
I think you made a decent decision to get in there with Moheet GT, 40s have well gone, 33s best price with a lot of 25s about. I can see him shrink more prior to the race. I just can’t call this Derby, everything I’ve looked at I can find more reasons for it getting beat than winning. I’m just going to sit back and prepare to be amazed
What is the lowest possible rating people think it is possible to win this year’s Derby with?
Ruler Of The World was largely slated earning a mark of 120 for winning it.
Some people don’t think Golden Horn will stay, some people don’t think Jack Hobbs and/or Elm Park will handle the track. If Giovanni Canaletto does not show the improved form his fans are predicting, then how highly can we rate the winner if the aforementioned horses clearly don’t run their races and eg Kilimanjaro, rated 102 coming in, wins dourly? For me it would seem pretty hard to imagine him rated 125, and an “average” winner.
What if it’s fast ground and both Jack Hobbs and Elm Park are pulled out? The mind boggles.
You’re right. Giovanni wins tomorrow IMO. Ryan Moore 112 in British Classics this year, Irish won all 3 Classics (1-2 in 1000 Guineas & Oaks) so clearly are the best horses, trained by the master, brother to a Derby winner, etc. 9/1 I think is actually good value. He seems to have the same relentless turn of foot as his brother, and clearly has the precociousness as well. At the very least he’ll improve a stone from the Gallinule I’d say. Found went from getting beat in a Group 3 to nearly winning the Irish 1000, Qualify went from getting beaten 41L to 6 3/4L. The man does it all the time, and now paired up with the best jockey.
The track where he debuted at doesn’t fit the trends but so what? Galileo and High Chaparral also debuted at non-fitting tracks for the same trainer. The thing that bothers me is the foaling date – May 8th – but I think the rest are so bad that it won’t matter. Golden Horn has a shout but I think he beat trees at York. On a line through Disegno and Prince Gagarin, in the Feilden Golden Horn ran 2L better than Giovanni in the Gallinule – question is how much better Golden Horn ran at York. The fact he won on his debut (producing such a brilliant turn of foot) suggests that he might not have needed to improve from the Feilden to the Dante to win it, or also that he didn’t improve. I see all stamina in Elm Park and Jack Hobbs, and as a result will probably show their best form later in the season when they’ve gotten up to fitness, which would have made them easy targets for Golden Horn. And if I think Giovanni can improve a stone from the Gallinule, then theoretically he should finish 12L ahead of Golden Horn based on these formlines. Do I think Golden Horn will have improved a stone from the Feilden until now? No, quite honestly. Also his stamina doubts have to be thrown into the mix – and we also have to question the trainer. Gosden’s excellent but how many Classic winners does the man train? More disappointing runs from exciting, short-priced prospects than actual wins.
Well done, Gordon. One of your several darts will be a bullseye ;) will probably never win another race again though!
The more I look at this race, the more its doing my nut in.
I’m in the camp of ‘hope GH stays, but cant back him at the price’ so I have to decide what small each way bet has the best chance.
I cant be confident of Hobbs and Elm Park reversing the Dante form, Success Days and Hans Holbein want softer ground and Kilimanjaro/Storm The Stars looked workmanlike but not classy enough. (Haggas saying STS is still a baby, too soon for Derby win)
Moheet is interesting, but from reading quotes from his connections they don’t sound confident he will be good enough.
The two rank outsiders Carbon Dating and Rogue Runner are making up the numbers here which leaves Epicuris and Giovanni Canaletto.I wonder if Epicuris will be able to switch off as he has made all in most of his races and clearly lacks temperament (refused to enter stalls last time)
This leaves Giovanni Canaletto who is still a pretty good each way price and although he didn’t win his prep race, there were positives with him running on well and it would have done him the world of good. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him win this and this be the only group 1 race he ever wins.
I just don’t know if the relatively unknown jockey and small stable have it in them to win this.
Whatever I choose, it will be pocket change and I might just sit back and enjoy a big race for once.I wondered about Pat Dobbs taking the ride when Richard Hughes was available, and doesn’t have a ride in the Derby, but I’ve read that Pat rides him out every day and gets on with the horse really well, so I suppose it makes sense. I think he is a decent jockey in any case so I’m not overly concerned.
Dobbs is on Pethers Moon in the Coronation Cup aswell.
I think Hughes will be catching the fast train home today and riding out at Hannons yard each morning at this rate.Blackbeard to conquer the World
That’s it I’ve made my mind up. I had tentatively tipped Elm Park but I’m no longer convinced he’ll stay and i don’t like his draw.
Jack Hobbs and Golden Horn I’m not convinced will stay. I’ve a shortlist of 6 :yes:.
Sod it, narrowed right down to two, Kilimanjaro and Storm The Stars.
I’m gonna go for Storm The Stars to win.
Come on mate, if you wanted to judge how good a Derby is do you…?
A) Judge it by who finished in the last four home?
Or
B) Judge it by who finished in the first four?I for one could not give a …. what the ratings of the poorest horses are.
Two entirely different things.
When I decide how good a Derby it is I do it with hindsight.
It hasn’t been run yet, so we’re trying to anticipate how good it might be. To do that all we can go on is the evidence we have before us. I’m saying the evidence, as I interpret it, is telling me it isn’t great compared at the same stage to previous runnings.
I’ll have ‘done’ the form – collateral, times etc – in detail by Thursday and will be able to offer my opinion then on how good a Derby it has actually been.
As I say, until then it’s just opinion.
Just to recap…
Bets in the race: Hans Holbein 66/1 ew, Giovanni Canaletto 12/1 and this morning I added Rogue Runner ew 100/1.
Elm Park and Giovanni Canaletto seem weak in the betting this morning.
We heard plenty about the stable money coming for Giovanni Canaletto but after being 6/1 during the week in places there seems plenty of 10/1 about now, so why the sudden lack of support for the gambled horse?
Elm Park is also 10/1 and that’s a worry for me. He’s tipped all over my morning newspaper, napped by one of their tipsters and he holds obvious credentials. Surely 10/1 must tempt his fans as a bet each-way?
Robin Goodfellow tips the horse, despite reservations on the ground conditions, his thinking being that the horse desperately needed the race in the Dante. That would be sound logic, but for the fact that the horse was prepared for running in the 2000 Guineas before the going ruled him out.
Approaching the Guineas Andrew Balding said that the horse had enough pace to the win the race and that the aim was to get him there somewhere close to his very best. He later said that the Newbury racecourse gallop was all that the horse needed to be fit and ready for the 2000 Guineas. How do we go from that situation to “desperately needing the race” in the Dante only 12 days later? Either they were going to run him way short of his peak in the Guineas or something doesn’t add up in the logic here?
Either way, 10/1 looks a huge price and a concern for me.
Golden Horn keeps getting backed in every time he seems to hit 2/1 anywhere, Jack Hobbs is also solid, bearing all the hallmarks of a horse considered an each-way lock by punters.
On this ground I would take Storm The Stars to reverse form with Hans Holbein and pick up the third place today. He and Giovanni Canaletto are my two St Leger picks ante-post but tread carefully, as, apparently, I’m useless at tipping them ante-post. I expect both horses to enhance their credentials for the longer Classic but without having the speed to win today.
Good luck and let’s hope it throws up a good winner.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
LOL … I think Qualify’s flash-in-the-pan Oaks win is deluding most people now.
If Golden Horn stays, he’ll, more than likely, win.
Should Jack Hobbs stay and shows the improvement I believe he’s capable of, there’s a strong possibility, he’ll turn his Dante form around.
Giovanni Canaletto is surely the best of AOB’s lot and might get his nose in front.
OK … I’m getting a bit deluded now!
I’ve backed Rogue Runner as I like to see Lomitas in a horses pedigree. When I placed my bet I did say I hoped it wouldn’t be the 250/1 shot that placed [that would hurt]. I am scared of Epicuris, reading more of his form etc and had intended at first to back Hans Holbein. Really looking forward to the race; it’s almost as fascinating [for me] this year as the Ebor [runs away and hides]…..
‘If’??…..When ‘Golden Horn’ is blowing like the wind inside the last furlong,A painting created by my good hand will just be unleashed into the public domain.A Masterpiece on a par with ‘Ruins of the Forum’ by none other than Giovanni Canaletto himself..This will go down deep into the anals of Horseracing History.
I see one bookie is offering an AOB match bet, Giovanni Caneletto Vs the other two Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro with 5/6 whichever you choose.
If you want a match bet at Evens Gord?…
You have Giovanni and I’ll have Hans and Kili.
Winner buys the other Fish And Chips next time we meet at Newbury.
Value Is EverythingLOL … I think Qualify’s flash-in-the-pan Oaks win is deluding most people now.
If Golden Horn stays, he’ll, more than likely, win.
Should Jack Hobbs stay and shows the improvement I believe he’s capable of, there’s a strong possibility, he’ll turn his Dante form around.
Giovanni Canaletto is surely the best of AOB’s lot and might get his nose in front.
OK … I’m getting a bit deluded now!
I agree, people are over-thinking this. Golden Horn-Jack Hobbs / Jack Hobbs-Golden Horn is what it’s gonna be. Zawraq was the only one who could have troubled the Gosden pair in my opinion. Maybe, Success Days could prove a danger if he’s actually a vastly improved horse this year rather than just a soft specialist. But, I just can’t see past the two Gosden runners even though I would have preferred the jockey bookings as in the Dante. The rest will be battling for third place.
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