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Less than two days before we all find out!!!
I am like a kiddie waiting for Christmas!!
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>The Ante-Post King wrote:</div>
Little bit off topic but now that the final decs are in for Epsom on Saturday and TAPK will be there as special guest of honour to the Queens Guards courtesy of our very own GDC,I feel obliged to share a little Gold nugget I’ve dug up for the Dash.Being a Smoothtalkinrascal myself and having been rather greedy taking Corals 40/1 for the past hour I’m relieved to see he’s scraped in with bottom weight.A little perusal through his form will tell you he should never be that price and as night turns to day Corals will cut him in about 3 mins time to 25/1….’Shush little baby dont say a word Daddys gonna buy yo a mockin bird’!I see sugar lips is up on board.
I would like to walk around her all day just buffing the floor so she doesn’t get the soles of her shoes dirty.
Margot Did was 25/1 for the Nunthorpe, that was sp mind, think we had 33’s hey Gord?. I see that Captain Dunne has been in the winners enclosure recently at nice prices, which reminds me you haven’t told me the name of the horse on the back of your MPR jacket? Have a great day Saturday mate and if your boy wins make sure to lead him in Dawn Approach style……
Had a little chat with her last Sunday,she was wearing a Navy blue pair of Armani Jeans and I told her that her Ass touched every thread Nath.She did remind me of the times she had her Pic taken with yo and ‘Big Joni’,I said Naths still the same,one of lifes survivors a proper good guy if yo on his team but an enemy yo wouldn’t cross.Sadly I did tell her Joni had eaten all the Pies and had put on a good couple of Stone since he stood next to her with his 3rd leg showing! The name on my jacket is a horse called Toormore Pal.
So in 2016 when the greatest ever horse takes on the second, third and fourth greatest… you’d still find fault because the 10 no hopers that choose to run means the “average” horse is a poor one.
There are always no hopers, social runners and pace makers in the Derby. If you want to bring down the race because of that then it’s up to you Maurice.
No, I was just showing how easy it is to present information in a certain way to back up a certain argument.
Here’s another one:
To take out the dross, let’s concentrate on the six top ORs going into the race. The average of them is:
2015 – 114
2014 – 115
2013 – 116
2012 – 112
2011 – 114
2010 – 113So even on the best ORs it is only an average renewal.
Interestingly, the weakest renewal was won by the widest margin (Workforce – 7 lengths) who ended up with the highest rating and went on to win the Arc.
The average RPR for the winner of the last six renewals is 124. That’s the kind of target this year’s prospective winner has to try and hit.
So you have proved it is not a poor one – it is pretty much average…….which is what we have been saying all along.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
What is the lowest possible rating people think it is possible to win this year’s Derby with?
Ruler Of The World was largely slated earning a mark of 120 for winning it.
Some people don’t think Golden Horn will stay, some people don’t think Jack Hobbs and/or Elm Park will handle the track. If Giovanni Canaletto does not show the improved form his fans are predicting, then how highly can we rate the winner if the aforementioned horses clearly don’t run their races and eg Kilimanjaro, rated 102 coming in, wins dourly? For me it would seem pretty hard to imagine him rated 125, and an “average” winner.
What if it’s fast ground and both Jack Hobbs and Elm Park are pulled out? The mind boggles.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Epicuris ran to a rating of 112 as a two year old on heavy ground. His breeding and action point to him wanting a sound surface and Walter Swinburn eludes to this in the RP this evening saying he floats across the ground.
So given 12 furlongs and decent ground he could leave that 112 well behind…that is subject to him entering the stalls of course
Now that my main fancy, Zawraq , has been declared a non-runner –
and still of the opinion that Golden Horn won’t stay ( ala Tenby ) , I turn to my reserve choice ,
Jack Hobbs – a horse who is still improving and will benefit from the trip. The late
Robert Sangster said that badly named horses do not win Derbys – well , I hope, for once, he is wrong .Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
So you have proved it is not a poor one – it is pretty much average…….which is what we have been saying all along.
Value Is EverythingSo you have proved it is not a poor one – it is pretty much average…….which is what we have been saying all along.
Again, my remarks are being misinterpreted.
It’s pretty much average when you concentrate on the best six. Take the field as a whole and it is some way below that.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Jonibake wrote:</div>
So you have proved it is not a poor one – it is pretty much average…….which is what we have been saying all along.Again, my remarks are being misinterpreted.
It’s pretty much average when you concentrate on the best six. Take the field as a whole and it is some way below that.
Oh Maurice, think for a minute what you’re saying.
By your measurement everything depends on how many no hoper, social and pace makers decide to run. ie It will be the number of poorest runners that brings down the “average rating” of the whole field; quality of the best runners won’t matter that much because they don’t change as much.According to you, if Carbon Dating (93), Rogue Runner (101) and Kilimanjaro (102) all came out of the Derby it would increase the strength of the field enormously. Inccreasing the average rating from 108.33 to 111.55.
It is the quality of the best horses that matter for the quality of the race, not the quality (or lack of) the poorest runners.
Come on mate, if you wanted to judge how good a Derby is do you…?
A) Judge it by who finished in the last four home?
Or
B) Judge it by who finished in the first four?I for one could not give a …. what the ratings of the poorest horses are.
Value Is EverythingI backed a Gosden 1-2 in the Dante, and gonna do the exact same thing again. Just want to make sure that big Jack will indeed line up first. Heck, I reckon it will even be the same Dante first three again, and probably in the same order. I reckon both Gosden horses are absolutely top class and will prove so in due time.
Now that my main fancy, Zawraq , has been declared a non-runner –
and still of the opinion that Golden Horn won’t stay ( ala Tenby ) , I turn to my reserve choice ,
Jack Hobbs – a horse who is still improving and will benefit from the trip. The late
Robert Sangster said that badly named horses do not win Derbys – well , I hope, for once, he is wrong .I don’t think that Jack Hobbs is a bad name.
You know what ?
I love this race. I remember the first time I went to Epsom to see the Derby. It was 1988 and I got off the train at Tattenham Corner and almost ran off the platform. The first view of the racecourse is magical!! The walk down towards the course across the track and looking back to the five furlong start is fabulous.
The atmosphere, the sounds, the smells, the funfair, the gypsies and everything else that comes with it makes this race UNIQUE !! An oft misused word unique but perfect to describe this wonderful historic test of horse and man which should never be maligned and always cherished.
Yes I bet and shout at jockeys if I think they are riding a bad race but afterwards when everything has calmed down and thoughts become rational and reasoned the excitement of this race brings tears to my eyes and I am not an old softie!!
I kind of don’t care what wins because this race at this track at this time is the ultimate in horse racing for me and always will be.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE
And come on Golden Horn 
raymo61 I thought I was reading my own words there. (although I don’t shout at the jockeys)
I have been to every Derby since 1983.
For important 3yo races and classics I have developed a points based model which includes pedigree, speed figures and ratings (I have used RPR as they are easiest to get hold of a few days out for analysis purposes). The model has had some success with the Derby and St Leger being the best results. For what its worth, here are my ratings
Golden Horn 14
Jack Hobbs 14
Giovanni Canaletto 14
Storm The Stars 14
Hans Holbein 14
Elm Park 13
Kilimanjaro 12
Moheet 11
Rouge Runner 10
Epicuris 8
Success Days 7
Carbon Dating 4The model is skewed towards pedigree (as I believe this is particularly important in classics) and this has around 55% of the points (in 3 elements) with the balance (45%) split between speed ratings and form ratings.
Have been using it for 4 years with reasonable results and the top five on the scores being tied is totally unprecedented, Legatissimo for example was 4 points clearThe Derby picture has thrown up an unprecedented log jam at the top with no fewer than 5 horses sharing top billing and another two within 2 points. My thoughts on the race and selection given the scores and my viewing of the videos is that the contenders can be broken down into roughly three groups
Have the pedigree but not the form (rating, OR)
Giovanni Canaletto
Hans Holbein
Kiliminjaro
Storm The StarsHave the form but not the pedigree
Golden HornBit (but not all) of both
Jack Hobbs
Elm Park
Golden Horn has a classic speed pedigree and he is trying to stretch, the thing is he doesn’t really have a 10f pedigree he has a milers pedigree…Cape Cross, Dubai Destination, Green Desert, Nureyev, Danzig, Ahanorah, Kingmambo and no help from the mares. He has already outrun his pedigree to win over 10.3f, albeit at a very speed favouring York. I know that Sea The Stars was a Cape Cross but as I have said before he brought Urban Sea on the distaff side and she brought Allegretta and all that German blood close up. Golden Horn has nothing like that to help. Nothing.Jack Hobbs looks a solid citizen despite being almost constantly talked down by his trainer…”too free, too heavy, too big, doesn’t like good going, too inexperienced.” FFS Johnny G…Godolphin have just bought a potential stallion for a kings ransom and all you can do is highlight his limitations. You don’t get any of the namby-pamby, wishy-washy mitigation from the stallion makers in County Tipperary. That is not how you inspire people (Jerry MacGuire voice here).
I don’t like Elm Park…I mean I like him as an athlete but not as a Derby winner. I didn’t like his sire (Phoenix Reach) and will be astonished if a son of that old pony wins a British classic. EP has already done far better than could be expected given his dam was no great shakes either. Admirable horse but surely at the top of his range already (as Dante indicated?) now he amongst the proper horses, those that are bred for this day alone.
Ballydoyle has had a strange year and I cannot get excited about any of their trio. Giovanni Canaletto got beat by a filly rated in the low nineties last time out…hmmm. Reminds me of Recital from about 5 years back. There is a decent horse in there but his head carriage, late running style and inexperience is too much to overcome for me. The fact that Ryan Moore has gone for him is probably the death knell for Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro…strong staying Leger types who don’t do anything in a hurry. I expect both to be unplaced.
That brings me to Storm The Stars one of the joint top rated above but I have backed him ew, 1/4 odds first 3 places, at 66/1 just before he won the Cocked Hat stakes a couple of weeks ago, so I am declaring a prior interest. That changes the dynamic and I have to say I am actually surprisingly confident that he is going to run very, very well. Mainly because he has already overcome some obstacles following the bet going down, namely…
He had to win at Goodwood…..check
He then had to get aimed at the Derby…..check (though not before some serious rank-pulling amongst connections).
He needs good ground…..check (well, at this stage though a thunderstorm could ruin this).
He wants to lead/prominent so less than 15 runners…..check (12 max).
He needs a decent draw to be prominent, stall 7 of 12…..checkIn addition, the Haggas stable is absolutely flying in the last fortnight (insert comment re stable cat) and I know well that perky tone in William’s voice and it is at its perkiest when he speaks of this colt.
Also, and this is the biggest attraction for me, he is son of Sea The Stars and only the 2nd generation of the great horse’s offspring to reach the classic age. The first lot only bloody produced Taghrooda and Sea The Moon. That is incredible for a young stallion and In Storm The Stars I think you can see a young horse who is absolutely thriving and improving with every week.
He went down by a head to the 6/4 favourite Golden Horn in a backend maiden at Nottingham and was staying the stronger of the two that day. Soft ground was against him at Chester (he will reverse with HH) and he had clearly came on a ton for the better ground at Goodwood. He has to find about 10-12lbs. He can do that and what is more some of those more favoured in the betting may not improve so much for the trip or the good ground.
I know he is an outsider but this is a proper 25/1 with a genuine each-way chance.The model isn’t really any help this year due to all the colts being adjacent in the figures but my three are;
1. Storm The Stars
2. Jack Hobbs
3. Golden Horncheers and the very best of luck.
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