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SteveC,
I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Golden Horn improving naturally. In fact, I’d be surprised if he didn’t but I would be surprised if he improved on his form at this trip.
I’d bank on more than one of his opponents improving past him, not least Jack Hobbs, and if the sectional analysis of Giovanni Canaletto’s last run is accurate then he might just win by clear daylight.
I’d take the Timeform Dante ratings with a serious pinch of salt. A shovelful, maybe. The race fell apart although I concede the time was good. But I only get the winner on 119. That in itself would be a very commendable level if I could be guaranteed not just natural improvement but also improvement for the step up in trip. Only exceptional horses win the Derby despite not being quite at their best at the trip. They tend to be among the best of all time.
I don’t think Golden Horn will beat Jack Hobbs at 12f, hence my opposition to him. And I’m not sure JH will win the race.
It’s all about opinion. That’s mine.
Trainer record and comments is a negative with Moheet but at the price is worth a bob or two.
The owner wants a derby winner and this one has been lightly raced with the possibility of improvement upped in trip.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Trainer record and comments is a negative with Moheet but at the price is worth a bob or two.
The owner wants a derby winner and this one has been lightly raced with the possibility of improvement upped in trip.I think that’s the case Nathan. You couldn’t say with any confidence that he is the likely winner, but Hannon does say he is well and he thinks the step up in trip will bring about improvement. There’s nothing in this field that really scares me, no O’Brien “monster” or anything with rock solid form that’s guaranteed to get the trip. At 50/1 he is a realistic bet even though he just might find one too good on the day.
I’m looking at a theory that last years oaks 1-2 (Gosden/Weld) will be this years derby 1-2.
Providing Zawraq does line up of course.
I’m sold on it.Not you Stevie!!! I love your posts and you know that. I just find it interesting that three weeks ago everyone was saying it was one of the best Dante’s in years and now everyone is saying it is one of the worst Derby’s. The front three pulled 13 lengths clear!!! Time will tell but I think they are all three nice horses. My only point is you can’t know that yet.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Poor Golden Horn, the race hasn’t started and he’s doomed. If he wins with head in chest he’ll be condemned as a non staying winner in a poor year.
BTW, I thought we jumps guys were the true fanatics, but you Flat specialists are different class. The Gold Cup thread only made 13 pages. This thread might well hit 40 before the winner passes the post.
SteveC,
I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Golden Horn improving naturally. In fact, I’d be surprised if he didn’t but I would be surprised if he improved on his form at this trip.
I’d bank on more than one of his opponents improving past him, not least Jack Hobbs, and if the sectional analysis of Giovanni Canaletto’s last run is accurate then he might just win by clear daylight.
I’d take the Timeform Dante ratings with a serious pinch of salt. A shovelful, maybe. The race fell apart although I concede the time was good. But I only get the winner on 119. That in itself would be a very commendable level if I could be guaranteed not just natural improvement but also improvement for the step up in trip. Only exceptional horses win the Derby despite not being quite at their best at the trip. They tend to be among the best of all time.
I don’t think Golden Horn will beat Jack Hobbs at 12f, hence my opposition to him. And I’m not sure JH will win the race.
It’s all about opinion. That’s mine.
Of course it’s all about opinions. I just don’t see how a lower rated horse coming in and winning it makes the race better than if the top rated one wins it.
As to the Dante form and how it will go forward, I believe Golden Horn is the horse most likely to be comfortable at Epsom.
In the Dante, Jack Hobbs looked a little awkward when he came under pressure, he was the first of the three to be asked for his effort. Elm Park actually travelled best of the three from a visual point of view for most of the race. He was in an ideal position to strike and you would probably have been surprised where he finished in the race if you had paused the race at the 2f marker. Golden Horn didn’t really win it with pure speed. He was the furthest back of the three and comes up to join the other two between the 2nd last and last furlong of the race. It is the final furlong where he puts daylight between himself and the other two horses. He does not seem to be stopping at the end of the race either. Frankie accepts the situation late on and William Buick has time for a few pats down the neck of Golden Horn just before the finish.
We all see races differently. I have probably watched the Dante 50 times now, looking at it from each horse’s perspective. My feeling five minutes after the race was that the winner would confirm the form, thinking about it after considering all the elements, and seeing it multiple times, my feeling is exactly the same.
We’ll all know on Saturday evening and will be eating humble pie to varying degrees, although in one case there is a potentially enormous excrement burger, of the chef’s own making, to be swallowed.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If GC wins I will be at the front of the queue for the burger Steve!!
I just can’t have it winning the Derby after being beat last time out bya horse that only beat Dragon Fei half a length.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Maurice wrote:</div>
SteveC,I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Golden Horn improving naturally. In fact, I’d be surprised if he didn’t but I would be surprised if he improved on his form at this trip.
I’d bank on more than one of his opponents improving past him, not least Jack Hobbs, and if the sectional analysis of Giovanni Canaletto’s last run is accurate then he might just win by clear daylight.
I’d take the Timeform Dante ratings with a serious pinch of salt. A shovelful, maybe. The race fell apart although I concede the time was good. But I only get the winner on 119. That in itself would be a very commendable level if I could be guaranteed not just natural improvement but also improvement for the step up in trip. Only exceptional horses win the Derby despite not being quite at their best at the trip. They tend to be among the best of all time.
I don’t think Golden Horn will beat Jack Hobbs at 12f, hence my opposition to him. And I’m not sure JH will win the race.
It’s all about opinion. That’s mine.
Of course it’s all about opinions. I just don’t see how a lower rated horse coming in and winning it makes the race better than if the top rated one wins it.
As to the Dante form and how it will go forward, I believe Golden Horn is the horse most likely to be comfortable at Epsom.
In the Dante, Jack Hobbs looked a little awkward when he came under pressure, he was the first of the three to be asked for his effort. Elm Park actually travelled best of the three from a visual point of view for most of the race. He was in an ideal position to strike and you would probably have been surprised where he finished in the race if you had paused the race at the 2f marker. Golden Horn didn’t really win it with pure speed. He was the furthest back of the three and comes up to join the other two between the 2nd last and last furlong of the race. It is the final furlong where he puts daylight between himself and the other two horses. He does not seem to be stopping at the end of the race either. Frankie accepts the situation late on and William Buick has time for a few pats down the neck of Golden Horn just before the finish.
We all see races differently. I have probably watched the Dante 50 times now, looking at it from each horse’s perspective. My feeling five minutes after the race was that the winner would confirm the form, thinking about it after considering all the elements, and seeing it multiple times, my feeling is exactly the same.
We’ll all know on Saturday evening and will be eating humble pie to varying degrees, although in one case there is a potentially enormous excrement burger, of the chef’s own making, to be swallowed.
You’ve watched the Dante 50 times Steve and you are convinced the placings will be the same in the Derby,well I watched the Dante once and said Elm Park is the horse to take from the race,he’ll get the 11/2m no problem and will come on more than both Gosdens 2…More humble pie for someone eh?
It will have been 20 years since Saeed bin Suroor and Godolphin won the Derby with the brilliant Lammtara come Saturday, would it be inconceivable that Best of Times could outrun his massive odds and mark the anniversary with an unlikely win? Strictly on form you would say he is held by Storm the Stars, who in turn is 33/1, but looking back at the race the winner was ridden very aggressively from the front and clearly revelled in the conditions. BOT was in a good position all the way but didn’t quicken in the final furlong and doesn’t seem to have a great turn of foot, but he wasn’t fading in the closing stages though, so the longer distance may not be too bad for him. Connections did moot that the Tercentenary Stakes was the next aim, so whether he goes there after this remain to be seen, but they must’ve felt the horse was well enough to contend the Derby. He’s also in the Eclipse so quite a loft entry. Breeding suggests stamina is OK out of Nabati by Dubawi, and siblings include 1m2 and 1m4f winners in France. A little rose-tinted spectacles trying to justify his previous defeat I know, but at 66/1 he could be a lively outsider, and a sentimental winner too he would be.
Always expect the unexpected.
You’ve watched the Dante 50 times Steve and you are convinced the placings will be the same in the Derby,well I watched the Dante once and said Elm Park is the horse to take from the race,he’ll get the 11/2m no problem and will come on more than both Gosdens 2…More humble pie for someone eh?
We all have different approaches in life. I like to take my time and weigh the evidence up again and again looking for new clues. I noticed today that Andrew Balding had a good month in April with a near 17% strike rate, going through May however, he was operating at only 8.6% and that is his leanest month in the past 12. Every little factor is worth considering in my mind.
People who watch it once and make a decision they are willing to take to the gallows with them are either very talented or very arrogant.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
you Flat specialists are different class.
And so begins the end of the jumps vs flat debate.
flat wins……….
we are the champions, we are the champions.
game over.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
People who watch it once and make a decision they are willing to take to the gallows with them are either very talented or very arrogant.
He is a bit of both Stevie! That’s why we love him.
A couple of points about GC. First, I don’t like the fact that he wears the noseband. If he was trained by Dermot Weld or Ian Balding you wouldn’t worry as all their horses wear them but how often do you see an Aiden horse in one? The reason is obvious – he carries his head high. Can anyone tell me the last horse to win a Derby with such a head carriage? I think the horse may be talented but he doesn’t so far race to the best of his ability. He doesn’t stick his neck out. He doesn’t look 100% genuine. Perhaps that will change but anyone backing him has to believe he has improved almost a stone in 2 weeks (according to RPR’s and assuming GH doesn’t improve). Second, I think people are backing the jockey and trainer rather than the horse. If was trained by anyone else he would be 20-1 at least.
Despite backing Jack Hobbs I still think GH is the most likely winner but I don’t think he is the best value. This “will he, won’t he stay?” is fascinating. It is true he hit the line hard at York and that it is only a few hundred extra yards at Epsom but what people have to realise is that you just can’t compare the two tracks. Running 10.5f at York is completely different to running 10.5f at Epsom let alone 12f. I will always remember hearing Sir Henry explain why he wanted York to be the first time Frankel stepped up to 10f – it is the easiest of the tracks that hold Group 1 races at that distance to do so.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Of course it’s all about opinions. I just don’t see how a lower rated horse coming in and winning it makes the race better than if the top rated one wins it.
That’s misinterpreting what I’m saying.
Golden Horn can win and run to the same mark in the Dante (118)… that makes it a poor race if the average Derby winner runs to 120+.
Golden Horn can run to his Dante rating and not win. That makes it a better race. (Because the winner has posted a higher figure.)
Golden Horn can fail to run to his Dante rating because he didn’t stay and be beaten by a 117 horse. That makes it a poorer race.
What I’m saying is if we’re relying on the Dante as the key race, we’re up sh1t creek without a paddle.
UNLESS
Jack Hobbs improves for the step up in trip, or Elm Park does, or both do.
Or
Hans Holbein runs them into the ground from four out.
Or
The sectional gurus are right and Giovanni Canaletto is 130+ horse, in which case we have a superstar in our midst.
That makes it 3/1 against it being a good Derby.
Maurice you seem to be making your case based on the assumption that GH and others have already reached their peak. Yes of course if GH wins the Derby running to a rating of 118 that would make it a very poor Derby. ANY horse winning it with a rating of 118 would make it a poor race. But you have any number of horses in the race who are still on the upgrade in that they are only having their 3rd or 4th or 5th career races or, in the case of Elm Park, their 2nd races of the season. As Ginge pointed out, many recent Derby winners had lower pre-race marks than GH and naturally improved to win the Derby. As things stand the ratings show it is not particularly any worse or any better than any other Derby. And as has already been said, we are not going to REALLY know how good the race is until later in the season when the 3yr olds start taking on the 4 year olds.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
We all have different approaches in life. I like to take my time and weigh the evidence up again and again looking for new clues. I noticed today that Andrew Balding had a good month in April with a near 17% strike rate, going through May however, he was operating at only 8.6% and that is his leanest month in the past 12. Every little factor is worth considering in my mind.
People who watch it once and make a decision they are willing to take to the gallows with them are either very talented or very arrogant.
I do my own “trainer form” and noticed the slump in form of the Balding yard too Steve; but imo he’s now back in form in the last couple of days. Just not yet showing it in the wins column. 17% is a normal percentage strike rate for the Kingsclere yard, so 8.6% is disappointing. But his place record in the last couple of weeks is better than it normally is… And if looking at the last couple of days alone reads – 16 runs, 9 places and 1 win.
Am on Jack Hobbs with a saver on Golden Horn, but could do with seeing a winner or two from John Gosden in the next couple of days to ease my growing worries. 10% recent strike rate instead of a usual 25%, place SR also down. And it is no better if just taking the last couple of days. 12 runs, 2 places and 1 win.
Hope I won’t be forced to change the way I am looking at the Derby.
Value Is Everything
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