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I am amazed that AOB should make those comments.
FFS Who is the trainer ??
I know they pay the bills but please Aiden grow a pair!!P.S. Golden Horn will win the Derby IMO and I can’t see anything with the class to beat it which is pretty much backed up by the last stat regarding RPR .
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>thejudge1 wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mickeyjp wrote:</div>
I wonder if coolmore wished they had entered highland reel in the Derby. Cracking run in the French derby and looks like a decent bet. The eclipse will probably be the next run.He ran a lot better today but I suspect that race lacked a bit depth today. Having said that, I’d rather have him pitching for me than Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro, who lack speed and form to my eyes. The stats are strongly against them based on their ratings coming into the race.
I read an article that showed that 10 out the last 11 Derby winners had a Racing Post rating of at least 119 coming into the Derby. Only Gleneagles on 123 and Golden Horn on 122 meet that stat, although Elm Park, Jack Hobbs and Zawraq are probably about that level, if not quite there yet. Zawraq and Jack Hobbs have more scope with less runs under their belt. Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are a good way short on 108 and 107 ratings.
I think I’d send my 123 rated horse in to bat come Saturday than trust one of the others to find a stone on faster ground.
Aye good try but Elm Park is only 1 pound short and Gleneagles won’t get home in a horse box
It’s not a “good try”, it’s a fact.
I acknowledged that Elm Park and and a couple of others were not far short and the gist of the post was that Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are way short of the standard.
Do you really think they would have left Gleneagles in this long, or even entered him in the first place if they felt he were not worthy of a try at the trip. Gleneagles has 20 lbs in hand of Kilimanjaro on the official ratings and that gives him some leeway even if the trip is too far.
They will all “get” the trip, in the sense that they will all finish. The key is how long it takes them to do so. I’ve seen plenty “stout stayers” tailed off behind the class horses before now.
No need to get so jumpy. Tbh I agree with you. Hans Holbein, Kiliminjaro, Storm the stars, based on trends they can’t win.
Where I don’t agree is with Gleneagles. Whereas I could easily see Golden Horn winning, just can’t have Gleneagles at all. Just don’t see him getting home.
Actually if they do run this horse (which I think would be a mistake) then the expected fast pace set by Coolmore to test flaws in other runners stamina might not materialise.
I am amazed that AOB should make those comments.
FFS Who is the trainer ??
I know they pay the bills but please Aiden grow a pair!!I’d be amazed if Aiden ‘didn’t know’
For the Derby or Royal Ascot you need to prepare and train your horse to the minute. It’s not much cop building him up slowly for Ascot and then being told he’s running in the Derby and frantically trying to get him 100% in 4 or 5 days I would imagine.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Gleneagles and Found NOT going to Epsom.
No but the winner is…..Giovanni Canaletto.
No need to get so jumpy. Tbh I agree with you. Hans Holbein, Kiliminjaro, Storm the stars, based on trends they can’t win.
Where I don’t agree is with Gleneagles. Whereas I could easily see Golden Horn winning, just can’t have Gleneagles at all. Just don’t see him getting home.
Actually if they do run this horse (which I think would be a mistake) then the expected fast pace set by Coolmore to test flaws in other runners stamina might not materialise.
I’m not jumpy, just pointing out that I had admitted in my post that some horses were not far short of the figure.
It’s the horses with a stone to find that I was aiming at, sorry if it came across as combative.
I think Gleneagles had a lot less chance of staying than Golden Horn but his class would have helped him offset some of the detrimental effects.
I feel it is utterly farcical that they took as long as they did to rule the horse out of the race. They have finally admitted that the B-team will have to suffice.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I am fed up each year with Coolmore leaving it to such a late stage to dceide which horses they are going to run in the Derby.
How refreshing to read this quote from Anthony Oppenheimer regarding the participation of Golden Horn. Made way back on 16th May. “It is not terribly sensible to leave it too long because everyone needs to know if they are betting. I just felt it was only reasonable to say. The sooner the better.”
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
Gleneagles and Found NOT going to Epsom.No but the winner is…..Giovanni Canaletto.
I think Giovanni Canaletto is an appalling price at 10/1 for the Derby. Beaten in Group 3 company when favourite last time, he’s a long way short of the required level, even in a poor looking year. He will be facing horses one hell of a lot better than Curvy this time. I don’t think Epsom, or the likely going will play to his strengths either.
Let’s face it Gord, if he were not your long term tip, you would be laughing at the notion that he was a 10/1 shot bringing what he does to the table.
The fact that they left Gleneagles in the mix this long says they didn’t think they had a good candidate for the Derby. I suspect they weighed up the class/stamina ratio of the two horses for ages before selecting the lesser of two evils with Giovanni Canaletto.
Golden Horn should win this, Zawraq is the one unknown factor, who could still be anything. Outside of that you could make some sort of case for Jack Hobbs and Elm Park, but they were well held in the Dante.
Golden Horn’s owner is convinced his horse will stay eleven furlongs and it’s the last 220 yards that will be the unknown factor. I’ll be a little bit disappointed if he doesn’t win this and emerge with a rating of at least 125.
I think your boy is a Leger horse Gord and I think that at 20/1 for that race, he’s much better value than he is for the Derby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Do you believe in coincidence or Omens?
Apparently Aiden O Brien was driving home today and pondering the decision to take take Gleneagles out of the Derby and was mulling the strength of the three colts that had been left in the race. Up ahead he saw road road markings and wondered if it were a sign from the Gods to put his mind at ease. If it was, I doubt he will sleep easy tonight because this was the sight that greeted him:-
Gulp!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
ATR had an article regarding Epicuris and his Derby prospects.
The article states:-
Among them is the Criquette Head-Maarek-trained Epicuris, whose route to the blue riband has had one or two twists.
Unbeaten as a juvenile when his wins included the Group One Criterium de Saint-Cloud over 10 furlongs, he was successful on his return to action at Longchamp in early April.
He was actually beaten in the race mentioned.
Is it asking too much for people to get these things correct?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>thejudge1 wrote:</div>
No need to get so jumpy. Tbh I agree with you. Hans Holbein, Kiliminjaro, Storm the stars, based on trends they can’t win.Where I don’t agree is with Gleneagles. Whereas I could easily see Golden Horn winning, just can’t have Gleneagles at all. Just don’t see him getting home.
Actually if they do run this horse (which I think would be a mistake) then the expected fast pace set by Coolmore to test flaws in other runners stamina might not materialise.
I’m not jumpy, just pointing out that I had admitted in my post that some horses were not far short of the figure.
It’s the horses with a stone to find that I was aiming at, sorry if it came across as combative.
I think Gleneagles had a lot less chance of staying than Golden Horn but his class would have helped him offset some of the detrimental effects.
I feel it is utterly farcical that they took as long as they did to rule the horse out of the race. They have finally admitted that the B-team will have to suffice.
No worries
Btw I wouldn’t be so quick to write off Giovanni Canaletto. Let’s not forget that Coolmore are going for an almost unprecedented fourth derby in a row.
He ran the last two furlongs at the Curragh last time about the same time as the specialist 10 furlong horse Al Kazeem, both coming off an equally pedestrian pace. He basically finished like a train even if he looked an awkward ride before that. Going up to a mile and a half could bring about a huge amount of improvement and his sire Galileo has also started to dominate this race in recent years. If anything 10-1 seems almost on the generous side.
Having said all that he still got beat in a race that if you are going to win the Derby you would expect to win doing handstands. But who knows. Be interesting to see if Moore chooses to ride him because as you’ve pointed out the other two probably are too exposed and not good enough to win the Derby. If Coolmore are to win the Derby this year it’s surely Giovanni Canaletto.
I must admit I’m starting to go off Elm Park a little bit as was watching his gallop from Breakfast in the stars earlier and he looked terrible, really struggling to handle the track. Even the jockey afterwards was reluctant to commit himself to the horse.
Golden Horn looked ok in his gallop but nothing special, although he wasn’t asked to do anything serious. The really impressive one was Jack Hobbs, powering clear of his lead horse Marzocco in the manner of a horse who is really starting to relish his racing.
Screw all this Stamina talk. I reckon big Jack could win this purely on ability
What a busy afternoon TAPK has had snaffling all the 16/1 NRNB with Betfred and Corals about this years Derby winner….Phew I need a drink!
I am fed up each year with Coolmore leaving it to such a late stage to dceide which horses they are going to run in the Derby.
How refreshing to read this quote from Anthony Oppenheimer regarding the participation of Golden Horn. Made way back on 16th May. “It is not terribly sensible to leave it too long because everyone needs to know if they are betting. I just felt it was only reasonable to say. The sooner the better.”
Easily said when you’ve got just one possible runner. Coolmore buy/produce a hell of a lot of mile and a half horses every year. usually got so many contenders that it would be crazy to commit too early. Connections obviously want to run those in form (at home) on the day. They’ve had a difficult job this year with JFK and OmanR two of their most well thought of particularly disappointing. Two of their lesser horses ran good races in trials; Hans Holbein would not have even run at Chester had their first choice been AOK; did it well enough but looked far more a St leger horse than Derby. Get the impression Kilimanjaro surprised them at Lingfield, but still only workmanlike, not impressive. Giovanni Canneletto seemed to be one of their best prospects early season, but had a set back. Afterwards struggled to get him fit. Getting on the racetrack only on Irish Guineas day. Finally consenting to run on and only managing a closing 2nd to a Coolmore ex-handicapper. Unusually for Aiden, ran in a nose band and you could see why. Carried head awkwardly/high, looking of doubtful temperament. That said, the fact he’s had a set back and well thought of means could well come on a lot for his reappearance. In my opinion has the best chance of the three Coolmore horses.
To watch Gleneagles he looks a miler, but with Galileo the sire the Derby is tempting. If they had another top class 3 year old colt miler for the St james’s Palace Gleneagles could’ve gone for Epsom. As it is Coolmore may well have run Gleneagles if Giovanni was not fit. They also had 4 of the first 6 in the betting for the Oaks; so it is not surprising they decided to run only one of Found and Legatissimo and head instead for Ascot/Coronation. Makes sense for Found to go to Royal Ascot, Legatissimo already has a Group 1 3yo mile race to her name. Always doubtful Found would go for the Derby; with Coolmore’s business brain; how would they have felt if Found had beaten one of their colts in to second?
Value Is EverythingAnyone who thinks Giovanni Canaletto 14/1 will go off a bigger price than ‘Hans Holbein’ 10/1 are kidding themselves.Ryan Moore will be on Coolmores best Derby prospect and he’ll go off 7/1..
ATR had an article regarding Epicuris and his Derby prospects.
The article states:-
Among them is the Criquette Head-Maarek-trained Epicuris, whose route to the blue riband has had one or two twists.
Unbeaten as a juvenile when his wins included the Group One Criterium de Saint-Cloud over 10 furlongs, he was successful on his return to action at Longchamp in early April.He was actually beaten in the race mentioned.
Is it asking too much for people to get these things correct?
Same article on Sporting Life too – poor!
Always expect the unexpected.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>The Ante-Post King wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
Gleneagles and Found NOT going to Epsom.No but the winner is…..Giovanni Canaletto.
I think Giovanni Canaletto is an appalling price at 10/1 for the Derby. Beaten in Group 3 company when favourite last time, he’s a long way short of the required level, even in a poor looking year. He will be facing horses one hell of a lot better than Curvy this time. I don’t think Epsom, or the likely going will play to his strengths either.
Let’s face it Gord, if he were not your long term tip, you would be laughing at the notion that he was a 10/1 shot bringing what he does to the table.
The fact that they left Gleneagles in the mix this long says they didn’t think they had a good candidate for the Derby. I suspect they weighed up the class/stamina ratio of the two horses for ages before selecting the lesser of two evils with Giovanni Canaletto.
I think your boy is a Leger horse Gord and I think that at 20/1 for that race, he’s much better value than he is for the Derby.
What you are basically saying Steve is you think Giovanni Canaletto has no chance of winning the Derby?
What you are basically saying Steve is you think Giovanni Canaletto has no chance of winning the Derby?
I just don’t think the form is there at all Gord. I would agree that Ryan Moore will probably pick him but looking at Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro I would have thought any craft that looked like it wouldn’t be best served by having a sail fitted, would seem a preferable option.
The Derby field is thinned down but there’s still plenty of chaff in there I reckon. That’s the good news for Giovanni Canaletto but it also looks that there are enough decent prospects at the head of the betting that would rule the O Brien colt out of the equation.
Giovanni will improve and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t prove the best of the Ballydoyle trio but that is partly because I think the other two are some way short of the required class.
The Gallinule is not a good guide to the Derby and Giovanni Canaletto couldn’t quite win a renewal that was hardly sparkling in quality. Winner Curvy has been improving but she was coming into the race on the back of winning two handicaps. Third horse in that race, Prince Gagarin, ran a similar distance behind a horse of Michael Stoute’s called Disegno the time before that in the Dee Stakes and that horse isn’t even going to Epsom.
Giovanni Canaletto finished quite well in the Gallinule but he was pushed along from a good 3 furlongs out that day. The last two winners of the race were Leading Light and Adelaide and even the original prep race target, the Chester Vase, is hardly a hotbed of Derby winners.
The chances are that one or two of these “dodgy stayers” will stay well enough and I feel Golden Horn and/or Zawraq will sail by in the final couple of furlongs.
Gun to the head, I know which two I would pick, from three, if Jack Hobbs, Elm Park and Giovanni Canaletto all line up at 7/1 on the day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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