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Dermot Weld may know the price of fish, but he doesn’t know if Zawraq will stay the Derby trip.
He has helpfully told us that he won’t know if the horse will stay until after the race and also that he won’t know until after the race whether Zawraq is good enough to win it.
The quote is as follows:-
DERMOT WELD said he will not know until the race is run whether his Investec Derby hope Zawraq will stay the mile and a half of the Epsom Classic, with the trainer unwilling to find out until the big day.
Plenty have questioned whether dual Guineas winner Gleneagles will stay the Derby trip and Weld, whose colt beat Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas runner-up Endless Drama by further in his only start this season over a mile at Leopardstown, has similiar concerns about Zawraq.
“I’m hopeful he will stay. If you look at his immediate pedigree, you would say he is a miler but if you look back further there is stamina there,” Weld said at Breakfast with the Stars.
“Only the Derby will tell us whether he is going to stay a mile and a half. I haven’t tried to find that out. I would rather find that out on the day.
“It would be lovely to have a horse good enough to win the Derby, time will tell with this fellow.
Thanks for clearing that up then Dermot
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I imagine these trainers have a helluva job getting the splinters out of their arses!!
Helpful I don’t think so !!
“I’m hopeful he will sell. If you look at his immediate pedigree, you would say he is a nice fish but if you look back further there is cheap in there,” Weld said at Breakfast with the fisherman’s friends.
“Only the fishmongers will tell us whether he is going to sell for a good price. I haven’t tried to find that out. I would rather find that out on the day.
“It would be lovely to have a fish good enough to sell, time will tell with this fish.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Can’t remember a derby when so many of the trainers didn’t know if they will stay the trip. Sounds like it’s not many were planning to go for the derby but decided to do so when the field cut up. You never know of course and a winner as good as troy may emerge but I’m not very confident that will happen. Hans Holbein ew seems to be a bet to nothing for me.
“I’m hopeful he will sell. If you look at his immediate pedigree, you would say he is a nice fish but if you look back further there is cheap in there,” Weld said at Breakfast with the fisherman’s friends.
“Only the fishmongers will tell us whether he is going to sell for a good price. I haven’t tried to find that out. I would rather find that out on the day.
“It would be lovely to have a fish good enough to sell, time will tell with this fish.
Weld looks taller than I remember him Nathan, maybe he’s on a Salmon Ladder.
I don’t like the way he is holding that Salmon though, looks more like he’s trying to get a tune out of it than anything else.
I dare say Dermot will be hoping for rain on the day of the Fish Merchant’s auction, so that he can finish with a wet sale.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Can’t remember a derby when so many of the trainers didn’t know if they will stay the trip. Sounds like it’s not many were planning to go for the derby but decided to do so when the field cut up. You never know of course and a winner as good as troy may emerge but I’m not very confident that will happen. Hans Holbein ew seems to be a bet to nothing for me.
“And it’s Golden Horn coming home clear…..to win the Derby by seven lengths…..he’s simply Troying with the opposition here”
Stewart Machin (6/6/2015)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
We get so many trainers telling us “he’ll stay” only to be proven wrong. In truth, with pedigrees like Zawraq’s it is not certain either way. Also; no trainer tries to establish stamina limits in home work. It’s pointless, you’d need to run a 1 1/2 mile race at full race speed. Might as well do it on the racecourse. However, I do believe Zawraq’s chances of staying the Derby trip are around 60/40. Fact he was not targeted at the Irish Guineas seems to suggest Weld thinks he’ll stay.
Zawraq’s dam Sundus (by stamina influence Saddlers Wells) won her only race, a 1m2f maiden. She should have stayed 1m4f herself. Grand dam Sarayir, who’s by speed influence Mr Prospector won the 7f Oh So Sharp Stakes at two and a 1m2f listed race at three. She produced – to Giant’s Causeway (Zawraq’s paternal grand-sire and usually mile/10f influence) – the 1000 Guineas winner Ghanaati. So Zawraq is bred on the same lines as Ghanaati who did not race beyond 1m, but trainer Barry Hills thought she’d stay further. There are plenty in the family who stay further. Sarayir is a half sister to a 2000 Guineas winner who won the Derby, Nashwan, despite being by speed influence Blushing Groom) and top class mile and a half horse Unfuwain (by Northern Dancer) and up to 1m4f Nayef (despite by Breeders Cup Sprint winner Gulch), all out of the Queen’s top class 1m4f performer Height Of Fashion. Height Of Fashion was by the top class mile and a half and St Leger winner Bustino and out of 1000 Guineas and Prix Diane winner Highclere. This is one of the best tail female lines in the stud book.
Zawraq’s sire Shamardal (by Giant’s Causeway) is best known as a miler. Won French Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes; but also won the 10.5f French Derby from subsequent Arc and King George winner Hurricane Run. Shamardal’s dam Helsinki won at 10f and is a full sister (both by Machiavellian) to 10f Dubai World Cup winner Street Cry. Their dam the Irish Oaks winner Helen Street is by Derby winner Troy.
With an inconclusive pedigree – temperament will count for a lot. Zawraq settles well at a mile and his character should help him stay.
As said, I believe it’s 60/40 Zawraq will stay. But given all the evidence (race/character and breeding) can’t see that anyone can be definitive more than 70/30 either way.; so it is understandable Weld is non-commital
Along with the doubts about Zawraq’s stamina, a bigger problem could be the going. Yet to race on a firm surface and to my eyes has a slightly rounded action. Did anyone ask Dermot about the ground?
Value Is EverythingOn RUK tonight William Haggas commits Storm The Stars to running in the Derby…”as long as he is well”.
Good news for his backers and for the race itself perhaps.If Elm Park runs (slight concern about the ground) I reckon it might just win. He’s got a good cruising speed, which you need around Epsom. When they quicken around the home bend it really helps to be in a position to challenge. So often you see horses in behind who get into trouble, don’t handle the track or don’t have the cruising speed to hold their position.
I don’t buy that Elm Park is just some slow St Leger horse, Ok it’s sire was a running on third in the St Leger behind Brian Boru but Elm Park has already shown slightly more pace and preciousness than Phoenix Reach. Looking at the sire stats on the racing post website most of the better progeny of Phoenix reach have been stayers, so he should have no problem getting the trip.And Kingston Hill nearly won the Derby last year and then went on to win the St Leger, so having the ability to stay the trip should not be underestimated.
I would be worried about a big top heavy horse like Jack Hobbs around Epsom, he looked an awkward ride at York although if he did managed to handle the track you could see him running on in the straight and passing them all. Halling although a ten furlong horse himself has sired a number of strong stayers like Cavarlyman. And the speed figure he put up at Sandown was very impressive.
Reading between the lines I think if it were just up to Gosden he would probably give this race a miss with this horse and send him to Royal Ascot instead, but Godolphin buying Jack Hobbs has forced his hand somewhat. That might work out well, who knows. I think he might have a better chance of staying than his stablemate Golden Horn, and although that quote about Lester Piggott is interesting, from my experience everything I’ve seen Lester tip up has been hopeless. Besides aren’t all jockeys supposed to be terrible tipsters?
If Elm Park runs (slight concern about the ground) I reckon it might just win. He’s got a good cruising speed, which you need around Epsom. When they quicken around the home bend it really helps to be in a position to challenge. So often you see horses in behind who get into trouble, don’t handle the track or don’t have the cruising speed to hold their position.
I don’t buy that Elm Park is just some slow St Leger horse, Ok it’s sire was a running on third in the St Leger behind Brian Boru but Elm Park has already shown slightly more pace and preciousness than Phoenix Reach. Looking at the sire stats on the racing post website most of the better progeny of Phoenix reach have been stayers, so he should have no problem getting the trip.And Kingston Hill nearly won the Derby last year and then went on to win the St Leger, so having the ability to stay the trip should not be underestimated.
I would be worried about a big top heavy horse like Jack Hobbs around Epsom, he looked an awkward ride at York although if he did managed to handle the track you could see him running on in the straight and passing them all. Halling although a ten furlong horse himself has sired a number of strong stayers like Cavarlyman. And the speed figure he put up at Sandown was very impressive.
Reading between the lines I think if it were just up to Gosden he would probably give this race a miss with this horse and send him to Royal Ascot instead, but Godolphin buying Jack Hobbs has forced his hand somewhat. That might work out well, who knows. I think he might have a better chance of staying than his stablemate Golden Horn, and although that quote about Lester Piggott is interesting, from my experience everything I’ve seen Lester tip up has been hopeless. Besides aren’t all jockeys supposed to be terrible tipsters?
I don’t think Elm Park will turn the form around with Jack Hobbs or Golden Horn, he was well held by both in the end. I don’t think Elm Park is a Leger horse, I don’t actually think he will stay that far. Kingston Hill was a horse I was confident would stay the trip but I don’t share that feeling with Andrew Balding’s Racing Post Trophy winner.
If you watch the Dante again, Elm Park travels comfortably and the connections have always felt he has more speed than people give him credit for. He is actually the last of the 1-2-3 to come off the bridle in the race. Jack Hobbs is first to come under the pump and he cocks his head slightly, looking a bit awkward. Golden Horn comes under gentle hand riding next but he is soon travelling comfortably behind Jack Hobbs and it looks ominous for Frankie’s selection at that point. Elm Park comes under the pump and from that point on he doesn’t really find much. Jack Hobbs stays on past him and Golden Horn pulls wide of the runner up, coming through with a fair bit of ease to put the race to bed for just one tap of the whip. Elm Park loses a marked amount of ground to the 1-2 in the closing stages, which is probably because he got tired but the question then becomes was it a lack of being fully fit that caused this or was he getting to the end of his tether slightly as well?
Elm Park was due to run in the Guineas, so you would feel that they had him reasonably far forward, if not fully tuned up. He shouldn’t really have needed the race that badly and it’s a leap of faith that he’ll turn things around with two lightly raced colts who arguably have more scope than he has after a busy enough juvenile campaign.
Looking at the colts with stamina doubts I am least concerned by Golden Horn for the following reasons:-
He made his debut at a mile on good to soft and was able to win against a horse with the advantage of a run.
Also, he was never intended to run in a Guineas, so he is not a potential or proven miler who is stepping up in trip.
He’s already won the Dante and did it in the style of a horse who would get a bit further, his trainer says he has a relaxed temperament and there is, in reality, hardly any more than a furlong and a half further to travel at Epsom.
The horse can sit in behind and be brought with a run, he has improved markedly from run 1 to run 2 and from run 2 to run 3, I am confident he will improve again.
All I have seen against him getting the trip is his pedigree and while it might prove correct, it’s not an infallible method, particularly when the proven stayers are quite a bit behind on the ratings.
The ground looks unlikely to be testing so the stayers won’t get help from the surface in sapping stamina.
I hope one of the higher rated horses wins to give the race a bit of credibility. I shudder to think of Kilimanjaro rated 102 proving capable of winning a classic.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
One question, why shouldn’t Golden Horn stay the Derby trip?
He won the Dante so easily that I can’t imagine him getting beaten. He seems to have everything for him.
Well one reason, pedigree.
The owner breeder Oppenheimer has already expressed his doubts about this horse getting the trip. I can’t pretend to be an expert on pedigree, but even a layman like myself can do some rudimentary investigation.
His sire Cape Cross was a miler. Ok Sea the Stars was also by that sire and won the Derby winning a cart, a good omen in his favour. However if you dig deeper Sea the Stars was also by Urban Sea, who won the Arc, whereas Golden Horn’s unraced Dam was by Dubai Destination, pretty much an out and out miler.
Even the biggest Golden Horn fan must confess that we won’t know if he gets the trip until Dettori pushes the button at the two furlong marker. My guess is there’s a good chance the tank might be close to running on empty at that point.
You can often get blinded by these trial performances. Golden Horn showed blinding speed in the Dante, so much speed in fact that I reckon it will struggle to get the stiff mile and a half at Epsom. Time might prove that it’s just a high class 10 furlong horse, which tbf is what it’s bred to be.
I recall Lush Lashes winning the Musidora a few years back and ran so quick in the last few furlongs I was certain it would win the Oaks, but in the race itself it fell in a hole half way up the straight even if it stayed 12 furlongs later in it’s career.
Carlton House a few years back also won the Dante impressively in the style of a horse who would improve for the extra distance. It didn’t and a while later they were running it over a mile.
As far as Elm Park is concerned, his pedigree is much more encouraging as I said earlier. The sire Phoenix reach was third in a Leger, all of his good horses have had no problems staying beyond a mile and a half, most have improved for stepping up in trip and Elm Park’s Dam, Lady Brora was by Dashing Blade who easily won when he was eventually stepped up to a mile and a half in his final race. Further back in her line is Ian Balding’s brilliant derby winner Mill Reef.
I think in fact far from being a non-stayer Elm Park will improve significantly for the extra distance. I can’t recall many Racing post winners who haven’t stayed a mile and a half actually. This horse has significant early pace as well which should enable it to get a decent position early on in the race, which is so important in the Derby. The only thing it does need is a bit of rain
Breeding is like statistics Judge. You can prove or disprove theories either way. North Light won the Dante and Derby and was by Danehill who ended up being a sprinter so that could smash that theory if you subscribed to that theory.
I think come a week on Saturday we will know for sure what stays and what doesn’t. My humble opinion is that Golden Horn will win the Derby and prove it stays a mile and a half and will then switch back to top class ten furlong races.
Elm Park is likely to improve for the run from York but will it improve enough to catch and pass both Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs?
We will discover this and lots of other queries come Saturday week
Well one reason, pedigree.
The owner breeder Oppenheimer has already expressed his doubts about this horse getting the trip. I can’t pretend to be an expert on pedigree, but even a layman like myself can do some rudimentary investigation.
His sire Cape Cross was a miler. Ok Sea the Stars was also by that sire and won the Derby winning a cart, a good omen in his favour. However if you dig deeper Sea the Stars was also by Urban Sea, who won the Arc, whereas Golden Horn’s unraced Dam was by Dubai Destination, pretty much an out and out miler.
Even the biggest Golden Horn fan must confess that we won’t know if he gets the trip until Dettori pushes the button at the two furlong marker. My guess is there’s a good chance the tank might be close to running on empty at that point.
You can often get blinded by these trial performances. Golden Horn showed blinding speed in the Dante, so much speed in fact that I reckon it will struggle to get the stiff mile and a half at Epsom. Time might prove that it’s just a high class 10 furlong horse, which tbf is what it’s bred to be.
I recall Lush Lashes winning the Musidora a few years back and ran so quick in the last few furlongs I was certain it would win the Oaks, but in the race itself it fell in a hole half way up the straight even if it stayed 12 furlongs later in it’s career.
Carlton House a few years back also won the Dante impressively in the style of a horse who would improve for the extra distance. It didn’t and a while later they were running it over a mile.
As far as Elm Park is concerned, his pedigree is much more encouraging as I said earlier. The sire Phoenix reach was third in a Leger, all of his good horses have had no problems staying beyond a mile and a half, most have improved for stepping up in trip and Elm Park’s Dam, Lady Brora was by Dashing Blade who easily won when he was eventually stepped up to a mile and a half in his final race. Further back in her line is Ian Balding’s brilliant derby winner Mill Reef.
I think in fact far from being a non-stayer Elm Park will improve significantly for the extra distance. I can’t recall many Racing post winners who haven’t stayed a mile and a half actually. This horse has significant early pace as well which should enable it to get a decent position early on in the race, which is so important in the Derby. The only thing it does need is a bit of rain
You are contradicting yourself here.
You say that Golden Horn’s speed is a concern for getting the trip. You then cite Elm Park’s speed as being an asset in getting an early position.
I see absolutely no logical reason on earth why you can’t just turn it on its head and say Golden Horn’s pace gives him the chance to get a good position and Elm Park’s speed makes him a doubtful stayer.
Elm Park was deemed fast enough to be entered in a Guineas, Golden Horn wasn’t. Golden Horn has won over further than Elm Park has. These are facts well worthy of consideration. Golden Horn is also more likely to improve as far as I am concerned.
I am still waiting for anything other than the pedigree that gives reason to believe he won’t stay. He seemed to have as much left, if not more than the other two at the end of the Dante.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
But isn’t pedigree enough? It’s a fairly precise science these days. For example the above poster gives North Light as an example, and although he was by Danehill he was very stoutly bred on the female side. Danehill is one of these sires like Pivotal who can get horses to stay much further than they did, but only if they have the right kind of breeding on the Dam’s side. I just don’t see same stout breeding on the damside of Golden Horn, although of course you are right that you still can’t be certain that it won’t get the trip anyway.
And if you want another angle that has more to do with the racecourse, well Golden Horn brilliantly won it’s maiden with a sweeping turn of foot at Nottingham. But the horse that was second that day, Storm the stars, was fighting back at it at the death. He also runs at Epsom and over an extra half mile, wouldn’t that little fight back worry you a little? Was Golden Horn idling in the final few yards or was he coming to the end of his tether? Who knows, perhaps I’m overanalysing it.
Of course we won’t know for sure with any of these animals until the day. We don’t know for sure if Elm Park will stay, Golden Horn,or Jack Hobbs. Zarwaq. That’s what makes these debates so fascinating. Was it Vincent O Brien who said if you have a horse certain to stay the derby distance then it would be too slow? But we do have history to guide us to some extent. Plenty of other horses have been hugely fancied to win the Derby based on highly impressive performances at shorter distances and have failed to get the trip. That’s a warning in itself.
I mean on breeding Hans Holbein is probably pretty certain to stay on paper, but no one really wants to back it because it’s just viewed as one of Aiden’s also rans. None of the really fancied horses by contrast are certain to get the trip, but given the doubts, purely from a price angle I’m more excited by Elm Park’s price at 7-1 than Golden Horn at around 7-4.
You also have to worry about the jockey with Golden Horn, El Frankie, who Authorized aside doesn’t have the best record in this race. Authorized was pretty much a steering job and perhaps Golden Horn is as well, but he’s going in at a similar sort of price and I think this race is a lot more competitive than that one was.
You are probably right about my contradicting myself, but my hope is that Elm Park’s cruising speed has a lot to do with his huge raking stride, rather than a buzzy horse who’s going to be running on fumes when they finally get into the Epsom straight
All about opinionss and here’s mine. Golden horn looks like a 10f horse who may stay the distance but I wouldn’t back him at that price. Elm Park to me ran a very good race in the Dante but tired in the end. He obviously needs it softer but it was a poor racing post trophy so it could be he just isn’t good enough but of course he could improve loads for the run. Jack Hobbs seems to be the forgotten horse. His Dante run was a huge step up on previous form and if he improves again must have a chance. Hans holbiens form looks better after storm the Stars won at goodwood and I think he will improve a lot for better ground. Kilimanjaro looked like a queens vase horse and I can’t see it winning. Zawraq is only so high in the betting because of having not run and with huge doubts about his stamina and dermot welds poor record in the Derby is better watched. So for me hans holbien is the best option with a wee side bet on jack Hobbs. I’m sure this may look foolish in hindsight but there you go.
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