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maybe Ballydoyle’s last dart might get nearer the bullseye, after some bounce outs and a couple that speared the marker in the knackers
Lets hope so otherwise his odds might drifted to 180.
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Well that looked another AOB blow out!! His Derby short list is getting shorter and shorter!! GC Looked seriously lacking in tactiful speed and yes it was a promising run but a Derby winner??? I don’t think so.
It was interesting what Magnier said when interviewed yesterday “both our horses that won trials deserve to take their chance ” which to me implies there is not much else in the locker and they may be just running those two.
I know it is impossible to second guess this lot but that was my take on it. So AOB horses in the Derby will definitely include Kilimanjaro and Hans Holbein.I wouldn’t send Giovanni Canaletto to Epsom if he were mine. I think he ran a good trial for the St Leger today but as far as the Derby was concerned he had to win easily and by a fair bit today to be a realistic Epsom horse. I would take him the same route as Leading Light, by heading for Queen’s Vase at 2 miles and then the St Leger and I would gobble the 20/1 for the latter race before punters come to their senses and realise that Elm Park at 6/1 is punting suicide.
Found looks likely to head to the Oaks rather than the Derby and it seems very much like either Golden Horn or Zawraq will win this disappointing looking renewal, which could cut up to a small field shortly.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I wouldn’t send Giovanni Canaletto to Epsom if he were mine.
Thank goodness he’s not yours then Steve!I cant pretend to be delighted with todays effort but if he still turns up at Epsom I’d certainly be confident of a place at worse.Today taught us that this fellows problem is the penny still hasn’t dropped and a 11/4m is his minimum trip had todays race been over a 11/2m he’d have won going away.Of course the problem now is will he mature enough in the next fortnight to show his true colours or am I going to lose my Ante-Post wagers on him at 25/1 Just like I did on Trading Leather a couple of years back.Whatever happens this fellow will win the Irish Derby just like Bolgers horse,I just hope I can get the 16/1 again.
Wouldn’t be so sure Gord. I hated his head carriage and he looked a difficult ride to me. Lord only knows what Epsom would do to him. The horse to take from today (apart from Solow Le Machine d’abord) was Jack Naylor. 16’s for the Oaks – grab it now!!!
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<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
I wouldn’t send Giovanni Canaletto to Epsom if he were mine.Thank goodness he’s not yours then Steve!I cant pretend to be delighted with todays effort but if he still turns up at Epsom I’d certainly be confident of a place at worse.Today taught us that this fellows problem is the penny still hasn’t dropped and a 11/4m is his minimum trip had todays race been over a 11/2m he’d have won going away.Of course the problem now is will he mature enough in the next fortnight to show his true colours or am I going to lose my Ante-Post wagers on him at 25/1 Just like I did on Trading Leather a couple of years back.Whatever happens this fellow will win the Irish Derby just like Bolgers horse,I just hope I can get the 16/1 again.
O Brien seems to want to take Gleneagles to Ascot instead of Epsom and earlier stated that Ascot was a possibility for Giovanni Canaletto. Later on the trainer was quoted by the Racing Post as having said:-
Of Gleneagles, O’Brien said: “Anything is possible. I’d like to go to the St James’s Palace with Gleneagles, but he’s still in the Derby so we’ll just have to wait and see. Everything is up in the air for now and there will be no decision about the Derby for the moment.”
O’Brien said after Giovanni Canaletto’s second to Curvy on his reappearance: “He ran well but he was just a bit babyish, and that’s the vibe Ryan [Moore] was getting. And that’s the way he was in his maidens last year too.
“He was slowly away and Ryan just brought him back to give him a chance. He’s more professional than he was last year but it would be hard to throw him into Epsom, going down that hill.”
I don’t think Giovanni did enough today to convince that the Derby is on the agenda. I suppose the Irish version may well be an option but much would depend on what wins at Epsom and the manner of the success. Will the winner of that one drop down in trip or attempt the Derby double? It’s all a bit of a shambles with the O’Brien team scratching around until the last minute to make their minds up here and in the Oaks.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Re: Gleneagles Paddy Power is 3s with a run . No chance running , even less chance of winning – he’s a miler , straight and simple.
I’m still with Zawraq all the way – with a saver on Jack Hobbs . My view on Golden Horn remains steadfastly the same : won’t stay !
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Why is Zawraq more likely to stay than Golden Horn ? Interesting opinion ?
Golden Horn has got to run 300 yards more than the Dante and I know it is a long way the last three yards at Epsom but I am optimistic and excited too!!Re: Gleneagles Paddy Power is 3s with a run . No chance running , even less chance of winning – he’s a miler , straight and simple.
I’m still with Zawraq all the way – with a saver on Jack Hobbs . My view on Golden Horn remains steadfastly the same : won’t stay !
I wouldn’t be so sure about Gleneagles not running. He has crept back into the betting this morning with Bet365 and Paddy Power (who some believe know the score with the intentions of the Irish trained horses) both quoting him at 4/1, and as far as I can see that is not a “with a run” price.
I did wonder back in January, when money started to come for Gleneagles for the Guineas, whether some of the other colts were failing to show much on the gallops. As time went on, the money kept coming and the early Derby favourites from Ballydoyle started to fail miserably in their early trials for the race. I suspect Gleneagles was entered in the Derby at the second stage because they knew their challenge wasn’t as strong as originally hoped for.
What I can’t understand is why they didn’t just say after the 2000 Guineas that Gleneagles would probably stay at a mile but might run in the Derby, hence the reason for entering him. Instead they have continually ruled him out, stated he’s definitely a miler and now even said he’s the best miler they have ever had. Despite all the bluster about not running they kept him in the race at the latest stage and bookies have seen fit to quote him at as low as 4/1 for the race.
The Racing Post have loosely considered form lines through Endless Drama which indicate that Zawraq may be worth a higher rating than Gleneagles and they rate him the top bet for the race at 6/1. As Raymo says, Zawraq has his own stamina questions and he is making a bigger step up in trip than Golden Horn. His form is on the soft, so it will be interesting to see how he will do if it’s lively at Epsom. He’s an exciting prospect but I think Golden Horn looks equally exciting and is getting a lot less credit for his Dante win than he would have got had Aiden O Brien or Dermot Weld sent him to York to win cosily.
Looking at the Derby betting today and seeing Found sitting in the betting at 7/1, I wasn’t sure whether to laugh out loud, or cry in sorrow for the gullibility of the Human Race. I settled for the laugh and surely Bet365 are also having a laugh with those odds. Sweet Cheeses.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The most ridiculous price for a horse Ante-Post currently is 6/1 Elm Park for the St Leger,just because ‘Kingston Hill’ did the Donny double doesn’t mean this fellow will.A 11/2m will test him never mind 1m6f.
Zawraq’s second dam Sarayir , the dam of 1000 Guineas winning Ghanati (Giant’s Causeway) also produced the stayer Mauwatheeq (Danzig) who won the Cumberland Lodge Stakes. Zawraq’s dam Sundus is by Sadlers Wells, who has been an influence for stamina getting stock who stayed further than he did. Shamardal was a ten furlong horse. He might just scrape home! He has much more stamina in his female line than Golden Horn, whose speedy female ancestors, regularly transmitted their speed whatever stallion they visited.
Shamardal was a miler who won over 10 furlongs thanks to a very fine tactical ride from Frankie.
Zawraq will get very little help at Epsom from his sire over the final 4 furlongs.
The first two in the betting have question marks over stamina.
Reckon one of the Ballydoyle outsiders, Kilimanjaro or Hans Holbein will outstay them, maybe Elm Park will come on from York.Interesting to see the Monday jury today in the RP – all bar one said send Gleneagles to Ascot for the St James’s Palace. The exception? Kevin Pendergast, an old school man who basically said there is only one Derby and therefore only one bite at the cherry – you can always drop back in trip.
Also John Magnier noted that Lester Piggott compared him the other evening to The Minstrel, who was beaten at both Newmarket and the Curragh prior to getting up in the dying strides at Epsom.
It seems that the modern generation are more inclined to play the safe unadventurous hand. I wondered today will Queen’s Jewel for instance run twice more (Diane and Vermeil) prior to a crack at the Arc and then that will be it? 30+ years ago we could expect a top class classic winning filly to turn up in either a King George or an International at York. Nowadays they seem inclined to wrap them in cotton wool and stay within their comfort zones. Sad really.
Magnier also told Tracey Piggott that her father thought Golden Horn would win the Derby, and that Lester was the best tipster he’d ever known.
Magnier also told Tracey Piggott that her father thought Golden Horn would win the Derby, and that Lester was the best tipster he’d ever known.
The money keeps trickling on Golden Horn despite the general consensus that he won’t stay.
Gosden said to today that the horse’s relaxed personality will help him conserve energy and see the trip out. Willam Buick was pleased with how Jack Hobbs handled the track at Epsom and reported that he’ll be fine. The intention is to run Jack Hobbs as long as the ground isn’t firm.
It would not surprise me to see these two as 1-2 again in the real deal.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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