Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › The Derby 2015
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May 21, 2015 at 22:23 #1049972
There is only two horse in the race not entered at Epsom. Maybe Great Glen is his mystery Derby winner. It has already beat STS this season and is 12/1 tomorrow LOL
who knows?
maybe it is Prince Gagarin third in the Dee Stakes last time out ?
May 22, 2015 at 10:03 #1055755Whilst I also think that Golden Horn’s breeding is not what is required to get 12f, it could be wise to remember what Vincent O’Brien once said in 1983. “Mile and a Quarter horses possessed with great speed can win the Derby”
Didn’t Lester say that “they stay if they’re good enough”
I can’t find a single Dante winner who flopped at the Derby distance but reverted
to a top class career over shorter distances.
Would Golden Horn be up to winning a Group 1 at 1m 2f?
If he is – then he’ll be very close in the DerbyMay 22, 2015 at 14:13 #1057362<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Zarkava wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>raymo61 wrote:</div>
Why on Friday?Cos the winner runs
You’ll really need to tell us who this horse is before it runs, otherwise the smell of BS will stink the place out.
Best of Times!
May 22, 2015 at 14:59 #1057649What is Aidan playing at by leaving Gleneagles in the Derby? Could he do you think???? I wonder what the odds are that he’ll run him.
Those of you backing Giovanni Canaletto, I can’t help thinking you are panicking a bit because he is trained by AOB. I mean it is hardly the ideal preparation is it? Not making your seasonal debut until a couple of weeks before the big race. He has so much to find in such a short space of time and if any of the main Ballydoyle horses had shown anything in their trials I am sure he would be saved for a King Edward or Irish Derby. I could be wrong and he may be the second coming but he is plenty short enough now for a horse yet to race this year.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
May 22, 2015 at 15:22 #1057774Mine didn’t stay :( Should have stuck to original pick of Storm the Stars :D
May 22, 2015 at 16:25 #1058199Mine didn’t stay Should have stuck to original pick of Storm the Stars
I wouldn’t be sweating that decision.
It’s obviously encouraging for Hans Holbein fans that the Haggas horse won the race but I don’t think there is any way that Storm The Stars is a Derby horse.
It was a pretty dour staying performance and coming into the race it looked a three way go, with Mr Singh a surprising selection by Timeform for me, with a bit more to prove on the form book. I would have bet my bottom dollar they would have given the nod to the Godolphin horse. While the two horses who had run behind Mr Singh had won next time, they only won a maiden each, with Scottish beating the Gosden horse Keble, who had been destroyed by Guineas also ran Intilaaq, in a maiden prior to that.
Coming to the favourite, what can you say? I’ve put forward plenty times that I don’t trust Godolphin, Saeed Bin Suroor in particular. I don’t have faith that their horses will progress as expected. Best Of Times made no appeal to me at 2/1 and at 11/8 was an accident waiting to happen in my view. He’s 50/1 for the Derby now and that holds zero appeal to me.
I reckon cutting Storm The Stars to half his odds is a bit hasty, the trainer wasn’t 100% sure if he will send him. I can’t see him placing to be honest but fair play to anyone who took 66/1 because there are only 16 left in the race now.
One time fancies Highland Reel and Sir Isaac Newton are out of the Derby now and I listened to a Podcast today where somebody put forward the latter horse as a bit of value, despite him being beaten in a Chester maiden at 1/5, the thinking being he could be better on fast going. You sometimes wonder if people need counselling, you really do.
Christophermarlowe is also out, so Pricewise won’t get a run for his money against favourite Golden Horn, who he considers one of the most overrated horses of the season. I will say nothing about the contenders for the most overrated tipsters of the season but will simply ponder “sell-by dates” for a few seconds
As Jonibake says, why the hell is Gleneagles still in the field? He has sneaked back into the betting at 6/1 or 3/1 with a run in a couple of spots. Aiden had categorically ruled him out, so why leave him in? Nobody ever really explained why they entered him at the 2nd stage, if he was not under some consideration, however small. Is it a case of seeing how Giovanni Canaletto gets on and then waiting to see how comfortably Gleneagles can land the 2000 Guineas and perhaps feeling their challenge for Epsom needs beefed up?
Even Found is in the Derby betting and that would be a dream for bookies ante-post if she was to do the business.
I reckon it’s Golden Horn’s race to lose and overrated or not he’s going to be there at least, which is something plenty of contenders over the winter can’t be said to be doing. On the down side, it’s almost certain Frankie is going to be riding him and I would have preferred if William Buick had kept the ride.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
May 22, 2015 at 16:55 #1058324Not sure if it was that much of a stamina test today. Most of the field have finished on top of each other. The second just hasn’t picked up and perhaps the ground was more of an issue than the distance? Despite the three wins he was disappointing enough there to make punters wary of him next time.
May 22, 2015 at 17:01 #1058380As for Dettori securing the Golden Horn ride those who have backed the favourite will no doubt be hoping he has another one of his spurts of confidence. Not so long back he was winning on virtually everything that was expected, it isn’t quite the same story now.
One steering job on Authorized isn’t the greatest record.
May 22, 2015 at 19:46 #1059032Maureen Haggas has said it is unlikely Storm The Stars will run in the Derby. They feel he is still immature and more likely to be a St Leger horse.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
May 22, 2015 at 20:18 #1059075D-day for the legend that is TAPK arrives at 2,45pm Sunday.Aidens Won the ‘Gallinule’ a dozen times but none have gone on to Derby victory,thats a bad stat but when did I ever worry about such trivialities.None of those previous Winners looked like the beast that is Giovanni Canaletto.I dont fear anything in the race,’Hans Holbein’ and ‘Kilimanjaro’ aren’t Derby horses but its pretty obvious Michael Tabor wants a clean sweep of Classics this year by keeping Gleneagles in the bloody race,I never saw that coming and its pretty obvious if ‘GC’ doesn’t win in the equivalent to an exercise gallop on Sunday ‘Gleneagles’ wil be lining up at Epsom..Of course Ivawood could spoil the party there.
May 22, 2015 at 20:25 #1059076D-day for the legend that is TAPK arrives at 2,45pm Sunday.Aidens Won the ‘Gallinule’ a dozen times but none have gone on to Derby victory,thats a bad stat but when did I ever worry about such trivialities.None of those previous Winners looked like the beast that is Giovanni Canaletto.I dont fear anything in the race,’Hans Holbein’ and ‘Kilimanjaro’ aren’t Derby horses but its pretty obvious Michael Tabor wants a clean sweep of Classics this year by keeping Gleneagles in the bloody race,I never saw that coming and its pretty obvious if ‘GC’ doesn’t win in the equivalent to an exercise gallop on Sunday ‘Gleneagles’ wil be lining up at Epsom..Of course Ivawood could spoil the party there.
Gordy Gordy Gordy I’m disappointed. You know if a horse is there to p*ss on a Ballydoyle parade tomorrow it’s Belardo. He’ll run this Gleneagles close, mark my words. As for the Hannon sprinter, no chance!
May 22, 2015 at 20:34 #1059078I’ve had a wee bet on the Weld outsider, Tombelaine to spring a surprise tomorrow
May 23, 2015 at 16:37 #1062213How desperate must Coolmore be? Gleneagles appeared to have a pretty hard race today and it is only two weeks to the Derby. The jockey has already stated the horse is a miler. So you potentially wreck the horse because you have nothing else to run? Why not just bite the bullet?
Blushing Groom had seven straight wins and a handy break going into his Derby but that experiment didn’t work and he was never the same horse again. No matter how bad a race may look if they don’t stay then chances are they don’t win.
Fingers crossed they see sense and he is given a break before Royal Ascot.
May 23, 2015 at 16:37 #1062214Well, we are no further on into whether Gleneagles will run in the Derby after his rather more workmanlike performance today. “The Boys” will see what happens tomorrow and then take a week to think about it according to Aiden in the aftermath of the Irish 2000 Guineas.
The yield in the ground was said to have blunted the finishing speed today and it had to be admired the way he knuckled down, after looking to have a little bit to do, and he out-battled two horses who were a size bigger than him today, putting the old saying that “a good big one will beat a good little one” to bed in the process.
Endless Drama did no harm at all to Zawraq’s form in finishing second here, a position he also filled behind Dermot Weld’s Derby prospect earlier in the season. I was a bit miffed when Ger Lyons’ colt was beaten by Tombelaine last time, as I had marked him down as an absolute shoo-in at 11/8, only to see him finish second. He reversed the form today, but that only rubs salt into the wounds. Another one of those results that makes the decision to quit punting look wise.
We may be a couple of races away from seeing an embarrassing volte face from the Coolmore team and Gleneagles actually heading to Epsom, in the biggest amount of fannying around since New Approach. Keystone Cops stuff and the Hokey-Cokey Derby is not settled down yet.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
May 23, 2015 at 17:06 #1062306He didn’t look to me a horse that wants much farther than he went today. Perhaps he was idling as Moore claimed, but the horse hardly looked full of running passing the post, and I don’t think they went all that quick. He’s brave enough, and Moore must be given credit for a cool head. Time and again he looks a lucky jockey, but luck doesn’t work that way, so he must be as good as he looks.
May 23, 2015 at 17:55 #1063326He didn’t look to me a horse that wants much farther than he went today.
TAPK sighs a little sigh of relief as Gleneagles proves he’s got as much chance of getting a 11/2m as Lee Westwood has of winning a Major.Tomorrow has been a long time coming but if Giovanni Canaletto cant beat this lot although JP’s horse will prove useful then I aint the greatest judge of horseflesh ever to walk Englands green and pleasant land. I do love trying to set myself up for a fall Joe.
May 23, 2015 at 22:02 #1063658TAPK sighs a little sigh of relief as Gleneagles proves he’s got as much chance of getting a 11/2m as Lee Westwood has of winning a Major.Tomorrow has been a long time coming but if Giovanni Canaletto cant beat this lot although JP’s horse will prove useful then I aint the greatest judge of horseflesh ever to walk Englands green and pleasant land. I do love trying to set myself up for a fall Joe.
It’s a strange situation Giovanni Canaletto is in tomorrow.
He has crept his way up the Derby market merely by being the last of the O’Brien colts to actually lay his cards on the table this season.
Most of his more vaunted stable mates have flopped badly this season and Giovanni Canaletto has found himself in a trial that doesn’t throw up Derby winners. Of course, his original target was the Chester Vase but a bad scope saw him miss that race. The trouble is that the Vase isn’t a lot better as a source of winners going on to Epsom glory, although Ruler Of The World managed it fairly recently.
I think the St Leger will suit Giovanni Canaletto better and looking back at his maiden win last year, it has to be said that, although he won well after being pushed along early and running very raw, it doesn’t look much of a race that he landed. A few horses have won from that race but they haven’t been up to much, winning bad races at odds-on in the main. He could improve a lot, but plenty of his team mates had similar profiles and there isn’t a big hill of beans to be made from their efforts collectively, with Gleneagles being very much the Lone Ranger thus far.
Looking at the Gallinule on Sunday, Giovanni is odds-on and although it’s not a stellar field he’s up against I couldn’t back him with any confidence. Several odds-on stable mates went under in a bit of a bloodbath for punters this Spring and you have to take a fair bit on trust that this fellow will buck that trend after his small setback.
Clonard Street has been off for a while after disappearing in the bog in France behind Epicuris, post Guy Fawkes Night, in one of those typical fag-end affairs on gutters that gets people excited about the winners, but rarely sees them collect next year. His second place behind Ol’ Man River looks one hell of a lot less sexy after the Montjeu colt vanished at Newmarket and whose jockey was shouting for a pair of oars in the Dante at York.
Forced to have a bet in the Gallinule I would opt for Ed Dunlop’s Prince Gagarin. He has had a run this season and he’s entitled to thereabouts after being just a couple of lengths behind in the Dee Stakes at Chester on his re-appearance on soft ground. He’s no world beater but he was entered in the Cocked Hat won by Storm The Stars the other day before aborting that and coming here instead. In the circumstances a tickle at 13/2 on him makes more appeal than lumping on the favourite. I made him a 4/1 shot on my fag packet book. (Benson And Hedges Bookmakers)
Best of luck Gord, maybe Ballydoyle’s last dart might get nearer the bullseye, after some bounce outs and a couple that speared the marker in the knackers
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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