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Many respected judges are declaring with some degree of confidence that this horse is highly unlikely to get the trip, Those claims seem to rest on breeding alone – I’ve so far seen no serious weight given to the possible mitigating factors of:
1 his talent
2 his relaxed running style, calm outlook and excellent balance
3 (crucially, imo, the amount of improvement this horse has left in him)
Stiff as the initial uphill run is, does it really sap stamina or is it ‘just’ energy? These are different factors in my view. I’d imagine Jack Hobbs, for example, weighs considerably more than Golden Horn and it’s highly likely he does not have the same size engine, JH is an unlikely runner, I know, but in theory a horse of his size and comparative power (to Golden Horn) will need to exert much more energy in making that early climb.
Also, what goes up must come down, and if the climb is a factor in sapping energy/stamina, the descent must offer some compensation. Simon Holt calls the course the toughest mile and a half in the sport, yet the final half mile or so is run on what I often heard called the fastest sprint track in the country.
I’m old enough to remember all the same doubts being expressed by similar experts about Sir Ivor’s breeding, and he was subsequently beaten at the Curragh, so perhaps they were right and he did not truly stay 12 furlongs. But he won the Derby. I’m not saying Golden Horn is another Sir Ivor, but nor are the opposition of the quality of Connaught and co.
Maybe he doesn’t stay. But there seems little doubt on the evidence we have that he is the best horse in the race. And I stress again, how much more will he have come on since York? And if Simon Rowland is correct in his recent assessment of rail movements on the Knavesmire, the horse will need to keep going for a little over 300 yards more than in the Dante. Yes, he will have climbed a hill which he did not have to do at York, but he’ll have come down one too, and, for the third and final time, he is likely to be a better horse – perhaps by quite some way – than he was on Dante day. This will be only the 4th run of his life, and just the second one after his connections announced that in his last piece of work before York ‘the penny dropped’.
The breeding experts can afford their forthright views; they’re in the rare and luxurious position of being able to watch him win the Derby and claim he did so despite his breeding and because of his class.
I just wonder if Godolphin buying into Jack Hobbs makes him a more likely runner in the Derby Joe?
Also, I will be surprised if Golden Horn doesn’t progress between seven and ten pounds from Dante to Derby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think that’s a fair estimate, David, though I was reluctant to put a figure to it. The reason I keep coming back to that is because I have not seen it mentioned in the press, despite the likelihood it will play a hugely significant part IMO.
It was after I posted I saw the news of the JH purchase. Good luck to them. He’s such a rangy, long-striding colt, I fear he will be all over the place up the straight. For those who have not been to Epsom, the camber really is something to see. Television cannot convey it with anything like its fearsome reality.
Whilst I also think that Golden Horn’s breeding is not what is required to get 12f, it could be wise to remember what Vincent O’Brien once said in 1983. “Mile and a Quarter horses possessed with great speed can win the Derby”
Wise words indeed and Vincent was probably referring to the years between Sir Ivor and The Minstrel when his four winners could reasonably be described as 10f horses. Worth remembering also that during that time the VO’B team had devastating use of a weapon in Northern Dancer blood that almost no one else had access to. A game changer.
The breeding experts can afford their forthright views; they’re in the rare and luxurious position of being able to watch him win the Derby and claim he did so despite his breeding and because of his class.
That is a very fair point Joe, definitely classic pedigree apologist behaviour. I am no breeding expert although that doesn’t stop spouting an opinion if I have one.
I remember writing a rather long and elaborate theory on here a few months ago on why Dodging Bullets couldn’t win the Queen Mother at the festival. I was quite pleased with it when I posted but obviously a lot less so when DB won comfortably to prove me a fool. In the words of Edmund Blackadder…. “there was only one thing wrong with the theory…it was bollocks!”
We are in the opinions business however, and I am happier giving mine and being proved wrong sometimes (often) than keeping schtum.
So here goes, I don’t think Golden Horn will stay and I don’t think he will win. I do think the uphill start is a big factor and it is not compensated for by a longer downhill stretch due to the physiology and biology of athletes. Comparative times for Epsom’s 12f versus a mile and half at other tracks support this.
If he does win I will just have been plain wrong but that has certainly happened before.Also, just to clarify, if I owned the colt…I would definitely run him at Epsom.
RR, that’s the beauty of forums, for me. I’d much rather read strong opinions well argued, than fence-sitting stuff. We all set ourselves up for a fall, but at least if you land on what at the time was a viable theory, it doesn’t hurt quite so much :)
RR, that’s the beauty of forums, for me. I’d much rather read strong opinions well argued, than fence-sitting stuff. We all set ourselves up for a fall, but at least if you land on what at the time was a viable theory, it doesn’t hurt quite so much
Indeed, that is the beauty of forums.
The ugly side of them is when strong opinions are belittled because, regardless of how well-founded they are in research and empirical evidence, they differ from those with the loudest mouths.
Maurice, I suspect that post of yours was partly driven by our exchange after the National. I was not belittling your opinions, I was annoyed and frustrated by the attitude which was the very opposite of what RR and I are talking about. We all get it wrong more often than we get it right. The thing to do then is ‘take the fall’ as I mentioned. What you effectively did in that post-GN post was to claim you had not been wrong after all, but that the result was wrong.
You said then that you’d probably leave the forum. You did so again after Zarkava responded to one of your posts in a way you didn’t care for. Forum members cannot be held to a subjective level of ‘respect’. If evidence is indeed well-founded and opinion strongly enough held, then fight your corner on them instead of ‘threatening’ to leave the ring.
Anyway, I’ve no wish to derail the thread, so I’ll leave it at that.
I think that’s a fair estimate, David, though I was reluctant to put a figure to it. The reason I keep coming back to that is because I have not seen it mentioned in the press, despite the likelihood it will play a hugely significant part IMO.
It was after I posted I saw the news of the JH purchase. Good luck to them. He’s such a rangy, long-striding colt, I fear he will be all over the place up the straight. For those who have not been to Epsom, the camber really is something to see. Television cannot convey it with anything like its fearsome reality.
Godolphin have said they will not pressurise John Gosden into running Jack Hobbs at Epsom and will leave the trainer to decide what is best. I suspect the Halling colt will head to Royal Ascot for the King Edward VII. I highly doubt he will turn the form around with Golden Horn at Epsom.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I tend to agree Steve but the only problem I have with that is that means Frankie will ride Golden Horn in the Derby which I am not sure is a good thing!!
RR, that’s the beauty of forums, for me. I’d much rather read strong opinions well argued, than fence-sitting stuff. We all set ourselves up for a fall, but at least if you land on what at the time was a viable theory, it doesn’t hurt quite so much
And nobody sets himself up for a fall more than me Joe!
Thing is when my 40/1 winners come in I can afford to be wrong another 39 times before I make a fool of myself.Patience is a virtue at this game and mine is being tested with Giovanni Canaletto…Only 7/1 for the Derby and still not been seen in public this year,he needs to Win on Sunday in a canter to turn up at Epsom now.He’ll go and bloody win the Irish Derby instead. 
Giovanni Canaletto is the one I fear the most – in case it turns out he’s the O’Brien No 1.
I thought I saw 10/1 this morning and might go in at that price if it’s still available before he runs at the weekend.
I’ve also taken 16/1 Hans Holbein for the St Leger. I was tempted to wait until nearer the Derby but if anything happens to GC it’s hard to imagine a better St Leger prospect at this stage.
Giovanni Canaletto is the one I fear the most – in case it turns out he’s the O’Brien No 1.
In case he turns out to be Coolmores No 1 Maurice??..I’ve been telling all and sundry all year that this fellow is the best 3yo in the yard,he’s a beast.
Hans Holbein does look a St leger prospect too,16/1 is generous imo.Well spotted.<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Maurice wrote:</div>
Giovanni Canaletto is the one I fear the most – in case it turns out he’s the O’Brien No 1.In case he turns out to be Coolmores No 1 Maurice??..I’ve been telling all and sundry all year that this fellow is the best 3yo in the yard,he’s a beast.
Hans Holbein does look a St leger prospect too,16/1 is generous imo.Well spotted.I like Giovanni Canaletto for the Leger Gord. He runs in the Gallinule and the last two winners of that race were Leading Light and Adelaide. Obviously if he’s up to winning an Irish Derby they will probably leave him at the mile and a half trip but if he’s not quite up to that I would hardly be shocked to see him follow Leading Light to, and perhaps also winning, the St Leger. 20/1 looked worth a poke to me before he runs on Sunday.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve decided to allay my fears by backing Giovanni Canaletto for the Derby. Took 12/1 this evening.
Doesn’t look as strong a stamina prospect as far as the Leger is concerned [as Hans Holbein] but the Derby should be just about okay for it.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>raymo61 wrote:</div>
Why on Friday?Cos the winner runs
You’ll really need to tell us who this horse is before it runs, otherwise the smell of BS will stink the place out.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hans Holbein fans will have an eye on Goodwood tomorrow for the Cocked Hat Stakes. The Chester Vase 2nd and 3rd both go into battle, giving two chances to see what the form looks like in retrospect.
It’s an interesting and slightly tricky race to call.
Godolphin’s Best Of Times is the 9/4 favourite at the minute with a tight battle for second best between Chester runner up Storm The Stars and John Gosden’s maiden winner Mr Singh, at about 7/2.
The Timeform preview on ATR selects Mr Singh, citing the possibility of improvement from his last run, where the 2nd and 3rd both won next time. Eagle Top won the race for Gosden last season but Mr Singh has a bit to find.
Best Of Times, who may or not be Zarkava’s Derby Springer
won a Newmarket listed race last time and his trainer said he wasn’t fit that day. If he were not trained by Bin Suroor I would make him worthy favourite here but I just don’t trust the Godolphin operation and haven’t backed their horses for several years now as I see little risk/value reward in their runners.Storm The Stars is on good ground this time, compared to the soft surface at Chester which saw his rating rise by almost a stone in finishing behind Hans Holbien in the vase. He also drops a furlong in trip and it won’t be the stamina test he had last time. It will be interesting to see how he copes.
Medrano isn’t fancied here and is 11/1, so it looks like the Haggas horse will give the best guide to Hans Holbein’s performance in winning at Chester.
Gosden has landed three of the last six renewals of the race and his High Chapparal colt holds Derby and Edward VII entries, is he Zarkava’s mystery Derby winner running tomorrow?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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