The Derby 2015

[stevecaution]

Zarkava wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>raymo61 wrote:</div>
Why on Friday?

Cos the winner runs

I assume Storm The Stars is the horse in question here.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Running Rein]

The more I look at Golden Horn’s pedigree the less and less likely it looks he will get a strong run 12f at Epsom.
That first uphill half mile invariably finds out colts with his miling speed splashed all over his page and you can’t help thinking his owners first instinct may have been correct.
However, we do have the evidence of the Dante win to support his case…but every instinct suggests I cannot have GH on breeding at all. York certainly favoured speed all week perhaps it was a freakishly fast test. Epsom will certainly be tougher.

Having erroneously been humming Ol’ Man River all winter it is difficult to see an angle in that doesn’t feel like a desperate attempt to hitch onto something against the favourite. But I will do that nonetheless with two bets;
Storm The Stars at 66/1 ew (close form with current favourite, strong pedigree, big price, trial form at 12f)
Jack Hobbs at 8/1; stiffer pedigree than Dante winner, room for improvement at trip, strong trial form

[stevecaution]

Running Rein wrote:

The more I look at Golden Horn’s pedigree the less and less likely it looks he will get a strong run 12f at Epsom.
That first uphill half mile invariably finds out colts with his miling speed splashed all over his page and you can’t help thinking his owners first instinct may have been correct.
However, we do have the evidence of the Dante win to support his case…but every instinct suggests I cannot have GH on breeding at all. York certainly favoured speed all week perhaps it was a freakishly fast test. Epsom will certainly be tougher.

Having erroneously been humming Ol’ Man River all winter it is difficult to see an angle in that doesn’t feel like a desperate attempt to hitch onto something against the favourite. But I will do that nonetheless with two bets;
Storm The Stars at 66/1 ew (close form with current favourite, strong pedigree, big price, trial form at 12f)
Jack Hobbs at 8/1; stiffer pedigree than Dante winner, room for improvement at trip, strong trial form

Storm The Stars had close form with Golden Horn last season. The Gosden Horse has improved two stone since then though and I reckon he has at least a stone in hand of the Haggas colt now. The Racing Post have Golden Horn on 122 and Storm The Stars on 104. The Gosden horse is unbeaten and has run fewer times. I think it would be an error to think their form is “close” now.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Crepello1957]

If there hadn’t been all the hype Golden Horn would be the first horse I would have drawn a line through.
Watch him win by twenty lengths now.

[Zarkava]

stevecaution wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Zarkava wrote:</div>

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>raymo61 wrote:</div>
Why on Friday?

Cos the winner runs

I assume Storm The Stars is the horse in question here.

Actually no!

[stevecaution]

Zarkava wrote:

I assume Storm The Stars is the horse in question here.

Actually no!

Just as well, he’s got no chance in my opinion.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Zarkava]

Yeah I’ve backed for Derby but laid off. Looks a stayer.

[BiggerBucks]

Hi guys, long time no post.

I too would agree that Golden Horn’s form is much the best in the race. Elm Park and Jack Hobbs are two 110+ good yardsticks, they went a strong pace in the Dante & the final time reflected that. I would say a mark in the late of 117-120 is perfectly fair and possibly even underrates him.

The only horse who really has the potential, at least based on the form book, to overhaul Golden Horn is Dermot Weld’s Zawraq. I wasn’t taken with this horse on debut and actually layed him next time out in April. That being said you can’t really take away the quality of that performance. The pace was a slow one, but he settled beautifully and quickened right away easily. The quality of that form wasn’t electric (2nd and 3rd looked to be 100 or so horses) but the way in which he did it suggests that ran to around 110-114.

The worry clearly is over whether he stays. His strength in April looked to be his change of gear and he certainly wasn’t lengthening at the finish. That notwithstanding, he presumably wasn’t fully wound up that day and may have just got tired late on. I’m prepared to trust Dermot Weld on this one though; he’s a canny guy, and knows his horse better than anyone. Add to that how that the horse settles well and I think you can make the case. Even so though, it may not be enough.

Going back to Golden Horn though, my worry (and the question I want to pose) is this. Although the race at York was well-run and he was going further clear at the line, he was actually quite keen early on and took quite a grip, which would concern me going up in trip at Epsom. Yes they normally go a strong gallop, but they did at York too over shorter and he was still quite keen. I think he may pull too hard at Epsom and it’s a long way home up the straight if that happens. If you fancy GH, does that worry you? It certainly put me off him slightly and I’ve got a funny feeling we might be seeing him back down at 10 furlongs or even a mile for the remainder of his career, regardless of the result at Epsom.

[Running Rein]

stevecaution wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Running Rein wrote:</div>
The more I look at Golden Horn’s pedigree the less and less likely it looks he will get a strong run 12f at Epsom.
That first uphill half mile invariably finds out colts with his miling speed splashed all over his page and you can’t help thinking his owners first instinct may have been correct.
However, we do have the evidence of the Dante win to support his case…but every instinct suggests I cannot have GH on breeding at all. York certainly favoured speed all week perhaps it was a freakishly fast test. Epsom will certainly be tougher.

Having erroneously been humming Ol’ Man River all winter it is difficult to see an angle in that doesn’t feel like a desperate attempt to hitch onto something against the favourite. But I will do that nonetheless with two bets;
Storm The Stars at 66/1 ew (close form with current favourite, strong pedigree, big price, trial form at 12f)
Jack Hobbs at 8/1; stiffer pedigree than Dante winner, room for improvement at trip, strong trial form

Storm The Stars had close form with Golden Horn last season. The Gosden Horse has improved two stone since then though and I reckon he has at least a stone in hand of the Haggas colt now. The Racing Post have Golden Horn on 122 and Storm The Stars on 104. The Gosden horse is unbeaten and has run fewer times. I think it would be an error to think their form is “close” now.

That’s fair enough I agree on Golden Horn’s improvement but I am hoping on a couple of things;
The Gosden colt will significantly less effective over Epsom’s 12f and that STS will improve a bit for 12f on decent ground. Also, my position is based on the fact I have missed the previous market moves (having stuck with OMR this winter) and now find myself with no bet 3 weeks out.
So much is price driven and I can get 66/1 and a quarter the odds for STS and that allows me to take the chance …not that the Nottingham form is literal but that there is still untapped potential in the Haggas colt in optimum conditions. I went through all the videos for STS in last 48 hours and in 4 out of 5 of his races he displays strong attributes that make you think there may be a 120 horse in there. The odds allow me to play.

Conversely. whilst GH has the form, sectionals and visual impression he is 2/1 now and has the kind of pedigree I have spent 30 years dismissing for Derby candidates. His closest 7 male sire/grand sire/GGS are
Cape Cross
Green Desert
Dubia Destination
Ahanoora
Kingmambo
Nureyev
Danzig

Plenty of quality blood there but none of it beyond 8 furlongs. There is no Derby winner in the last 20 years with so little stamina in the male lines. Sea The Stars was the closest (via Cape Cross) but he brought Urban Sea and she brought Allegretta and then all that stout German blood close up. There is nothing like that with Golden Horn. No stamina on the female side to talk of and brilliant sprinter/milers from the stallions.
Arguably he has already outrun his pedigree in winning the Dante but that was on the speed favouring York track last week. Epsom is a different test (it’s that first uphill 4 furlongs) and at 2/1 he must be opposed.
Storm The Stars is a price play with the link back to GH in form terms problematic, I accept. But STS has far fewer stamina doubts and Jack Hobbs is a solid citizen at the price on form and pedigree.

[stevecaution]

Running Rein wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Running Rein wrote:</div>
The more I look at Golden Horn’s pedigree the less and less likely it looks he will get a strong run 12f at Epsom.
That first uphill half mile invariably finds out colts with his miling speed splashed all over his page and you can’t help thinking his owners first instinct may have been correct.
However, we do have the evidence of the Dante win to support his case…but every instinct suggests I cannot have GH on breeding at all. York certainly favoured speed all week perhaps it was a freakishly fast test. Epsom will certainly be tougher.

Having erroneously been humming Ol’ Man River all winter it is difficult to see an angle in that doesn’t feel like a desperate attempt to hitch onto something against the favourite. But I will do that nonetheless with two bets;
Storm The Stars at 66/1 ew (close form with current favourite, strong pedigree, big price, trial form at 12f)
Jack Hobbs at 8/1; stiffer pedigree than Dante winner, room for improvement at trip, strong trial form

Storm The Stars had close form with Golden Horn last season. The Gosden Horse has improved two stone since then though and I reckon he has at least a stone in hand of the Haggas colt now. The Racing Post have Golden Horn on 122 and Storm The Stars on 104. The Gosden horse is unbeaten and has run fewer times. I think it would be an error to think their form is “close” now.

That’s fair enough I agree on Golden Horn’s improvement but I am hoping on a couple of things;
The Gosden colt will significantly less effective over Epsom’s 12f and that STS will improve a bit for 12f on decent ground. Also, my position is based on the fact I have missed the previous market moves (having stuck with OMR this winter) and now find myself with no bet 3 weeks out.
So much is price driven and I can get 66/1 and a quarter the odds for STS and that allows me to take the chance …not that the Nottingham form is literal but that there is still untapped potential in the Haggas colt in optimum conditions. I went through all the videos for STS in last 48 hours and in 4 out of 5 of his races he displays strong attributes that make you think there may be a 120 horse in there. The odds allow me to play.

Conversely. whilst GH has the form, sectionals and visual impression he is 2/1 now and has the kind of pedigree I have spent 30 years dismissing for Derby candidates. His closest 7 male sire/grand sire/GGS are
Cape Cross
Green Desert
Dubia Destination
Ahanoora
Kingmambo
Nureyev
Danzig

Plenty of quality blood there but none of it beyond 8 furlongs. There is no Derby winner in the last 20 years with so little stamina in the male lines. Sea The Stars was the closest (via Cape Cross) but he brought Urban Sea and she brought Allegretta and then all that stout German blood close up. There is nothing like that with Golden Horn. No stamina on the female side to talk of and brilliant sprinter/milers from the stallions.
Arguably he has already outrun his pedigree in winning the Dante but that was on the speed favouring York track last week. Epsom is a different test (it’s that first uphill 4 furlongs) and at 2/1 he must be opposed.
Storm The Stars is a price play with the link back to GH in form terms problematic, I accept. But STS has far fewer stamina doubts and Jack Hobbs is a solid citizen at the price on form and pedigree.

That’s a good and well argued post. Obviously 66/1 is a tempting price but I just feel the quality of form is lacking for now with Storm The Stars and worry whether his improved rating on soft ground will remain reliant on such a surface.

I have watched the Dante several times and if Golden Horn is keen, then it’s not overly so, because he remains near the rear with only Ol’ Man River behind him. Keenness in horses worries me when they pull themselves to the front and I don’t envisage a Dawn Approach scenario with Golden Horn.

Dawn Approach was a colt with an awful lot more stamina questions than Golden Horn, having only raced at a mile up to his Derby Run. Jim Bolger’s colt was 5/4 and I think Golden Horn at 2/1 is much better value than that, with a form advantage over the field and a lot less extra ground to cover at Epsom.

I thought the stiff uphill finish at Epsom was debunked quite a while back, I am sure it was proved more myth than science when it was measured. The old saying goes that if you think you have enough stamina for the Derby, you’ve got too much.

Watching Golden Horn in the Dante, he closes up behind Elm Park and Jack Hobbs for hand riding, once William Buick pulls him wide of Jack Hobbs to make his challenge, he actually takes it up under hand riding only, he only gets one tap with the stick and is just pushed out to go away after that, with the jockey waving the stick without using it and then having time for a quick pat down the neck as they approach the finish line. He shows no signs of being a tired horse to me after the line, his ears are pricked, and he even pulls for his head slightly. It looked to me he could have held the second and third off for a fair way further if necessary and it also looked like he could have sat in behind them and delayed his challenge if that had been the desire of the jockey.

Of course pedigree is all important and I’m not an expert by any means in that department. I prefer to judge the probability based on the horse and his racing style, the way the race unfolds and whether there looks scope to be effective at further. Of course if it’s soft on the day, it’s a whole new ball game and the real stayers have to become the priority in tracking down the likely winner.

In all our analysis on this forum we tend to forget that there are other people with much better insight into the prospect of Golden Horn staying a Derby trip. The main two are trainer John Gosden and jockey William Buick. The trainer will have been watching his work and making plans about where to aim the horse, his hands were originally tied to some extent, as he revealed that the owner had told him “very firmly” that the colt was a 10f horse. William Buick is bound to know how much the horse had left at the end of the Dante and have a feel for how the horse will cope over the Derby trip.

I would imagine the scenario of the horse having originally been entered in the French Derby will have led to a fair bit of discussion between owner and trainer post Dante. The jockey will have been de-briefed by Gosden and it will have taken a fair bit of changing the owner’s mind unless all three parties were reasonably sure the horse could get the trip at Epsom. I don’t think the owner will have simply watched the race and changed his mind without consulting the trainer for an opinion. If the horse doesn’t stay and the French Derby went begging, there will be a serious amount of lost face on the part of both the owner, who originally held that view, and those who helped persuade him to change tack, if it wasn’t an individual and independent decision to run.

I’ve said more than plenty and can only watch to see if my feelings are correct or wildly wrong.

Zawraq could prove good enough, but it’s a leap of faith on more fronts than Golden Horn is.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Zarkava]

The issue with Storm the Stars I feel is that he does seem to be pretty slow.

His debut was in a solid maiden at HQ, but I see lots of slow horses. Then 2nd to Golden Horn despite having had previous experience. Then on his 3yo debut he got beat partially because there was no gallop and partially because Haggas’ are all improving for the run. Then made all to win a maiden and then put in the Chester Vase. Haggas says in Howard’s book that Storm the Stars “stays very well”. Early days but the Sea The Stars-Sadler’s Wells nick seems to throw up stamina in abundance – Taghrooda won Oaks & King George, Tamasha ran in a 13f Listed race at Lingfield, Crowned with Stars debuted over 12f, Lone Star’s gone hurdling, Moontime ran over 14.5f last year, etc.

Not quick enough to win a Derby.

[Running Rein]

stevecaution wrote:

In all our analysis on this forum we tend to forget that there are other people with much better insight into the prospect of Golden Horn staying a Derby trip. The main two are trainer John Gosden and jockey William Buick. The trainer will have been watching his work and making plans about where to aim the horse, his hands were originally tied to some extent, as he revealed that the owner had told him “very firmly” that the colt was a 10f horse. William Buick is bound to know how much the horse had left at the end of the Dante and have a feel for how the horse will cope over the Derby trip.

I would imagine the scenario of the horse having originally been entered in the French Derby will have led to a fair bit of discussion between owner and trainer post Dante. The jockey will have been de-briefed by Gosden and it will have taken a fair bit of changing the owner’s mind unless all three parties were reasonably sure the horse could get the trip at Epsom. I don’t think the owner will have simply watched the race and changed his mind without consulting the trainer for an opinion. If the horse doesn’t stay and the French Derby went begging, there will be a serious amount of lost face on the part of both the owner, who originally held that view, and those who helped persuade him to change tack, if it wasn’t an individual and independent decision to run.

Rather than just two people having much more insight on whether Golden Horn would stay the Derby trip you are right to say there might be three?

The other being his owner Mr Oppenheimer, he is obviously much more than just an owner, he is an owner/breeder and bred the horse and given his experience and knowledge he would have had a firm idea of its optimum distance from its early days. Initially he clearly thought 8-10f but he has been persuaded to try the Derby on the trainer’s and perhaps jockey’s advice. This wouldn’t be a prize money play but he would have weighed a number of factors
Strength of opposition
Effect of a poor draw
Chance of winning (on form)
Impact on stallion potential
Ground/track etc.

From the language John Gosden used before and after the Dante Mr O was pretty clear he thought 10f was the limit and with respect to Mssrs Buick and Gosden he is likely to be a better judge than them on pedigree. He has changed his mind… possibly Golden Horn has impressed him at York, possibly Gosden whispered about the nightmare of a poor draw (can be overcome at Epsom, terminal at Chantilly), perhaps he was persuaded that with Ballydoyle bereft, the French challenge missing and Elm Park & Jack Hobbs already bested Epsom was close to an open goal.
Whatever it was Mr O has settled on Epsom but I would be confident he looks at GH’s page each evening and his every instinct and long experience tell him he is taking a big chance.
The colt isn’t bred for it…he has to be a superstar to win.

It is not the uphill finish that is short and irrelevant, it is the first 4 furlongs against the collar where you rise 140 feet in just half a mile, that climb is what beats the milers and impairs the 10f beasts attempting to stretch.
Golden Horn’s stallion ancestors for 3 generations are garlanded with Lockinge, Flying Childers, Guineas, Poulains, St James’ Palace, July Cup, Haydock Sprint Cup, Marois, Stewards Cup, Moulin and Queen Anne triumphs but nothing beyond and he gets no stamina assistance from the mares.

Someone once said that a horse performs best at the outer limit of its stamina…perhaps that is what we saw in the Dante?

[Maurice]

Now that I’ve had a chance to analyse the times of the day, the Dante is working out better than my immediate instinct had it. With Elm Park probably needing the race and perhaps already over-rated, Jack Hobbs having taken a handicap off 85 last time, and everything else running dreadfully, I wasn’t sure the race took much winning. I also have stamina doubts about Elm Park. Nevertheless a rating of 119p for the winner Golden Horn would be entirely acceptable as a Derby trial. I’m firmly in the ‘won’t stay’ camp, though, and Tom Segal compares him with Carlton House who looked very strong at the end of the Dante but weak in the last half-furlong at Espom.

[Chivers1987]

I think people are right with the opinion that it doesn’t look a very strong derby and that was a semi-important reason why GH has been entered. I’m not saying its a weak race as its too early for that assumption, but does anyone think that if the like of Australia was in it this year, GH would have been supplemented?

[threenaps]

Whilst I also think that Golden Horn’s breeding is not what is required to get 12f, it could be wise to remember what Vincent O’Brien once said in 1983. “Mile and a Quarter horses possessed with great speed can win the Derby”

[stevecaution]

Maurice wrote:

Now that I’ve had a chance to analyse the times of the day, the Dante is working out better than my immediate instinct had it. With Elm Park probably needing the race and perhaps already over-rated, Jack Hobbs having taken a handicap off 85 last time, and everything else running dreadfully, I wasn’t sure the race took much winning. I also have stamina doubts about Elm Park. Nevertheless a rating of 119p for the winner Golden Horn would be entirely acceptable as a Derby trial. I’m firmly in the ‘won’t stay’ camp, though, and Tom Segal compares him with Carlton House who looked very strong at the end of the Dante but weak in the last half-furlong at Espom.

Carlton House was only beaten one length when placed third in the Derby. The winner never raced again and the runner up won the Irish Derby on his next start. That horse, Treasure Beach, had also beaten Nathaniel in the Chester Vase prior to Epsom.

If Carlton House was weak in the finish, he still went close to winning the Derby.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Steeplechasing]

Many respected judges are declaring with some degree of confidence that this horse is highly unlikely to get the trip, Those claims seem to rest on breeding alone – I’ve so far seen no serious weight given to the possible mitigating factors of:

1 his talent

2 his relaxed running style, calm outlook and excellent balance

3 (crucially, imo, the amount of improvement this horse has left in him)

Stiff as the initial uphill run is, does it really sap stamina or is it ‘just’ energy? These are different factors in my view. I’d imagine Jack Hobbs, for example, weighs considerably more than Golden Horn and it’s highly likely he does not have the same size engine, JH is an unlikely runner, I know, but in theory a horse of his size and comparative power (to Golden Horn) will need to exert much more energy in making that early climb.

Also, what goes up must come down, and if the climb is a factor in sapping energy/stamina, the descent must offer some compensation. Simon Holt calls the course the toughest mile and a half in the sport, yet the final half mile or so is run on what I often heard called the fastest sprint track in the country.

I’m old enough to remember all the same doubts being expressed by similar experts about Sir Ivor’s breeding, and he was subsequently beaten at the Curragh, so perhaps they were right and he did not truly stay 12 furlongs. But he won the Derby. I’m not saying Golden Horn is another Sir Ivor, but nor are the opposition of the quality of Connaught and co.

Maybe he doesn’t stay. But there seems little doubt on the evidence we have that he is the best horse in the race. And I stress again, how much more will he have come on since York? And if Simon Rowland is correct in his recent assessment of rail movements on the Knavesmire, the horse will need to keep going for a little over 300 yards more than in the Dante. Yes, he will have climbed a hill which he did not have to do at York, but he’ll have come down one too, and, for the third and final time, he is likely to be a better horse – perhaps by quite some way – than he was on Dante day. This will be only the 4th run of his life, and just the second one after his connections announced that in his last piece of work before York ‘the penny dropped’.

The breeding experts can afford their forthright views; they’re in the rare and luxurious position of being able to watch him win the Derby and claim he did so despite his breeding and because of his class.

[Author]

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