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With respect Maurice I didn’t read your comments as being about previous years but this. Even so I am not sure the likes of Authorised, New Approach, Sea The Stars, Workforce, Camelot and Australia were TOO bad.
I just find it funny that before the Dante all the talk was of how it is one of the best Dante line-ups in years and after it they are no good. The front 3 pulled 13 lengths clear of the remainder yet that fact is dismissed by some as irrelevant or merely that the others didn’t perform or are no good. Well apart from JFK I haven’t heard too many excuses from the beaten horses other than they were outclassed by three good’uns. Johnny G and Andrew Balding are two established top flight trainers who know what a good horse looks like – do their words count for nothing?
Look you may be right – they may all be duffers – my only real point is that we can’t possibly know that yet.
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I agree with a lot of that, Steve, but there are a number of points worth making.
I understand anyone’s lack of enthusiasm about Hans Holbein but would you be dismissing him so readily if he was still 66/1 after what he did at Chester? The price is part of the reason for my enthusiasm. I think his soft ground form is purely coincidental. Being a Montjeu/Shirley Heights there’s no reason for him to require soft although I wouldn’t want it too firm.
I agree the Chester race may have fallen apart but I expected it to and I expected him to take advantage of it, which he did. My rating for him for the race is only 110+ but I think there’s more to be read into him given O’Brien’s record in it and the subsequent form of his winners. He only sends G1 horses for it. They might not be Epsom G1s but they win G1s.
The point about taking that win away is irrelevant. Take Jack Hobbs’s Sandown win away and he’d have been 50/1 for the Dante. You can’t take it away. It’s there in the form book.
As for Golden Horn, John Gosden and Rab Havlin have now both stated publicly that Golden Horn wasn’t even on the Derby radar until last Friday, three weeks before the race. They thought he had a future, with the French Derby as the right target for it but both men have cited a piece of work done last Friday as making them sit up and take notice. And as for his stamina, the furlong and a half difference is huge when you’re running out of energy. Make no mistake, Coolmore will ensure the guts are run out of any non-stayers. Golden Horn might be good enough to recoup the supplement by being placed but I still wouldn’t be surprised if they opted for France nearer the time.
You might be right in saying it’s not just Timeform’s big rating that is behind his position and price in the market but it’s a major player in it. The visual impression in the Dante, the fact that the highly-rated Elm Park and the previously impressive Jack Hobbs will be factors, but they’re factored into Timeform’s rating. I think wrongly.
I think Simon Holt is right about Elm Park being over-rated and Andrew Balding has said he wasn’t fully fit the other day. Jack Hobbs remained an unknown quantity in this company and the others ran so badly that they’ve been taken out of the Derby altogether. So what has Golden Horn really done that makes him worthy of such a short price for the biggest race in the world for 3yos?
Like I say, on the other hand it looks like a really duff crop of 3yos and it may be that he ends up the best of them, which might also account in part for his price, but if there is a couple of lengths either way between him and Hans Holbein one and a half out at Epsom I know which one I’d rather be with.
I disagree that taking the one run away is irrelevant. Jack Hobbs was an unbeaten horse and there is always the possibility that big improvement is going to be forthcoming from a horse who has not yet met defeat, given that John Gosden is the trainer and the horse’s entries and you can virtually guarantee a lot better from them on the second start.
Where Hans Holbein is totally different to Jack Hobbs is that he already had three runs coming into the Chester Vase and he met defeat in two of those runs. He seemed to lack pace when fourth on his debut on fast ground. Made a hot favourite next time on Heavy going he failed to land the 8/15 odds but got off the mark in a near identical 8 grand maiden the next time. The ground was soft that day and he made the running before winning, as I said earlier, two of the horses in behind were turned over at odds on next time.
In my mind, we have a different scenario to Jack Hobbs, in that we had seen three times that there was evidence that Hans Holbein was not looking like a Derby winner in the making. The Chester Vase is a race that may or may not work out very well, but on the balance of probability I would say I don’t think it will come to much.
The single biggest mistake that punters make, in my opinion, is expecting soft ground form to translate to faster ground. It works both ways to some extent but I believe that winning margins on soft ground are often worthy of a sceptical eye. Other analysts can look at the times, create their going allowances and work it out if they so wish but, as a rule of thumb, I am cautious about soft ground winners when they meet faster conditions.
Storm The Stars has owed his reputation of late to the fact that he ran Golden Horn close when the Gosden colt made his debut. The two colts have taken very different paths though and I believe that the Derby favourite has left him well behind this year. Looking back to their Nottingham race and trying to rate Storm The Stars based on the Golden Horn he met that day and what the implications are now is not just a tad tenuous, more suicidal logic in my opinion.
I think Golden Horn compares very similarly to Taghrooda last season. Both trained by John Gosden, both raced once at two over a mile, both won their races narrowly as unfancied horses and both emerged with exactly the same rating of 90. Taghrooda went from 90 to 103 to 116 and 125 over her next three starts and Golden Horn went 90 to 111 to whatever the official handicapper gives him on Wednesday.
One thing is sure, the horses who got close to Taghrooda at two were not in the same league to her at three. Neck runner up Casual Smile didn’t win a race and the third horse won only a Salisbury maiden on heavy ground. That, for me is the danger of comparing Storm The Stars with Golden Horn now. The Haggas horse plodded along before winning his maiden and didn’t improve his rating along the way. It seems odd that he managed to improve the best part of a stone next time, and I’m sure the soft ground and the bigger test of stamina have helped him. I think it would be risky to assume he’ll run to the same mark back on a faster surface.
Don’t get me wrong, if it is soft on Derby Day, some of these horses come into the equation big time, but that has to be a doubt and therefore I feel their prospects are seriously diminished on decent ground. Horses can set a strong gallop if they wish but that might just set them up as sitting ducks and their own reserves could be diminished in the process. In my experience, soft ground horses going hell for leather to try to offset the lack of rain rarely achieve their goal.
I think the Dante is the best piece of form by a mile. Chester looked well below par this year, with Christophermarlowe flopping and original Chester Vase hope Giovanni Canaletto missing the race due to scoping badly. The Dee Stakes cut up disappointingly and Golden Horn’s old Fielden Stakes sparring partner Disegno couldn’t take advantage as he went down by a short head, although he did see off another O’Brien disappointment, Smuggler’s Cove, who was beaten favourite last of the four.
You mention Simon Holt playing down the form of Elm Park and I have to say that great commentator though he is, Holt isn’t top of my list of analysts to follow. Despite that, I had posted here that I didn’t think much of the form of the races Elm Park has been winning. It isn’t throwing up many winners at all and I still have the nagging memory of Elm Park pushed along quite seriously in the Royal Lodge before outstaying Nafaqa eventually. I don’t think he’s as good as previous Racing Post Trophy winner Kingston Hill was/is and I’ve always worried how he’ll handle Epsom. The thing is, even if we crib his form a little bit, it still leaves the Dante way ahead of the Chester Vase.
John Gosden made it quite clear that the owner had firmly told him that Golden Horn was a 10f horse and that the French Derby was the aim. I suspect that the reason he wasn’t more forceful about it at the time was that there was a doubt whether the horse was good enough for the Derby, rather than the stamina question marks. I myself had doubted that his Fielden Stakes win was good enough form and it’s a race that has been poison for Derby contenders in general, impressive winner True Story being the latest winner to be put on the Derby pedestal, only to be beaten in the Dante and then disappoint in the Derby, despite all the confident Fallon bluster before the race. Golden Horn did what True Story couldn’t do and he did it in style in the Dante. Gosden had said beforehand how well the horse had been working and if the horse is just coming to himself now, the others had better be worried.
It’s my opinion that Golden Horn will take a world of beating and it could be a rerun of Motivator’s Derby, where one of the pundits who had failed to back Michael Bells’ colt, stated in the aftermath that the punters had had the finest Salmon offered up to them on a silver salver before the race, but many had chosen to send it back to the kitchen and have fish fingers instead.
Time will tell as always.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Grey Lion will not be running in the Derby. They are only starting him back in full work tomorrow after his illness that caused him to miss the Sandown trial.
The French challenge, that looked interesting at one stage has all but wilted.
Giovanni Canaletto is intended to run at the Curragh on Sunday in a Group 3 and that seems to have sparked hope that he will run in the Derby, with his odds being trimmed in. O’Brien has said he’ll see how the horse comes out of the trial and then make a decision about Epsom.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
They’ll be rushing him like crazy to get him ready. Gina Harding tweeted saying he’d probably miss the race as they couldn’t get a prep into him in time. Will be a good lay I think, especially given AOB’s record with FTO 3yos (bar 2000 Guineas runners).
I think it’s important to remember the Dante in 2014, even though it was a small field, the top 3 were as follows:
1.The Grey Gatsby – raced once beyond 10f, came nowhere.
2. Arod – 8 length 4th in the derby, placed in the Lockinge most recently.
3. True Story – 10 length 7th in the Derby.I know it has been a different story in previous years, but you have to go back to 2007 to find the most recent Dante/derby winner in Authorized
Workforce came 2nd in in 2010, then won the Derby, but the recent trend suggests that the Dante is not the most notable trial to rely on.I think it’s important to remember the Dante in 2014, even though it was a small field, the top 3 were as follows:
1.The Grey Gatsby – raced once beyond 10f, came nowhere.
2. Arod – 8 length 4th in the derby, placed in the Lockinge most recently.
3. True Story – 10 length 7th in the Derby.I know it has been a different story in previous years, but you have to go back to 2007 to find the most recent Dante/derby winner in Authorized
Workforce came 2nd in in 2010, then won the Derby, but the recent trend suggests that the Dante is not the most notable trial to rely on.The rise of Aiden O Brien has skewed the stats away from the Dante with his horses running in Ireland or Chester in some cases on the way to Epsom. The 2000 Guineas has actually become the best race in very recent times with Sir Percy, New Approach, Sea The Stars, Camelot and Australia all winning the Derby having run in the 2000 Guineas. Aiden has ruled out Gleneagles from trying to add to those stats, so we need to look for the next best trial.
Ruler Of The World won the Chester Vase before winning at Epsom, but I think you have to go back an awful long way to find another Vase winner who won the Derby, so it’s not a good pointer for Hans Holbein’s chances this season.
The Lingfield Derby trial has a pretty grim record of throwing up Derby winners as well, so that puts a cloud over Kilimanjaro on the trends front.
No trial is an automatic producer of the Derby winner but looking at this year, and it’s wise to avoid getting blindly drawn into favouring one particular trial, the Dante looks the best trial by miles.
I’d be interested to hear someone make a good case for one of the other trials being better than the Dante this year.
Last year’s Dante, as you have pointed out, didn’t throw up the Derby winner, or even a horse that ran particularly close but that is only one year and, as I have said, the Dante winner, or any other trial winner can never be a shoo-in for the Derby every year.
I reckon you are glossing over the facts when dismissing last year’s Dante. Let’s not forget that The Grey Gatsby won The French Derby and The Irish Champion Stakes. I thought Arod ran a cracker in the Derby, third to a narrow 2000 Guineas third (Night Of Thunder and Kingman 1-2), with a St Leger winner and runner up ahead of him in second and third. True Story is a typical Godolphin flop of recent times.
If you look back through the Dante winners list here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dante_Stakes you will see that it doesn’t throw up the Derby winner every year by any means, yet it does so more often than most trails I can think of. Check the names out in that list and there are some placed Derby horses and some really class horses who made their names in other races. Epsom is not every horse’s cup of tea after all and I think the big thing to take from the Dante is the quality that comes through from the names of past winners.
Grey Gatsby not staying 12f has got nothing whatsoever to do with whether Golden Horn will stay the trip. Not every Dante winner is a Motivator or an Authorised in the making but I happen to think that Golden Horn is in the same mould.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yes, I agree completely and it is probably more of a positive on Golden Horn’s part that he wasn’t entered in the Derby. Being supplemented afterward gives out the signal that the 12f will be fine. I haven’t looked at the line up yet, so I shouldn’t really discuss his price yet.
Also, with The Grey Gatsby, I didn’t mean to downplay his 2014 campaign, he was a superb performer at the highest level and I hope he can keep up to that standard again.
What I am saying is that the Dante is seen by many as the main derby trial and its important to remember that in more recent times it hasn’t been the best guide.
It does look the best trial by far this year though, yes.Giovanni caneletto is the only horse I can see shaking up the betting. He could well end up running in the Irish 2000 guineas. He does look a top horse in the making but as with many ballydoyle 3yos has had a troubled year. Hans Holbein in a normal year would be third at best but as we can see this isn’t a normal year and much as it seems unlikely he’ll win it can’t be ruled out totally.
Giovanni caneletto is the only horse I can see shaking up the betting. He could well end up running in the Irish 2000 guineas. He does look a top horse in the making but as with many ballydoyle 3yos has had a troubled year. Hans Holbein in a normal year would be third at best but as we can see this isn’t a normal year and much as it seems unlikely he’ll win it can’t be ruled out totally.
I agree that Giovanni Canaletto remains with potential but his setback and the general stable form deflate the confidence.
I can’t see him running in the Irish 2000 Guineas, despite Aiden saying that they would probably run others along with red hot favourite Gleneagles in that race.
Giovanni Canaletto is an intended runner in the Gallinule Stakes on Sunday, which is a Gp3 race over 10f. It would seem odd running in that and then dropping to a mile to take on the 2000 Guineas winner. It would be a crazy prep for Epsom anyway in my mind.
Aiden has said they will see how the horse comes out of the Gallinule and then make a decision about Epsom. I have Giovanni Canaletto pencilled in for the St Leger at 20/1 and for me it is encouraging to look at the winners of the Gallinule and see that Leading Light and Adelaide were the last two winners. That would suggest to me staying will be Giovanni’s Art.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
After my Ballydoyle ante-post bets are in tatters it’s now an all in charge on Zawraq.
DK Weld knows the price of fish and if he says it’s a Derby horse; it’s a Derby horse.
After my Ballydoyle ante-post bets are in tatters it’s now an all in charge on Zawraq.
DK Weld knows the price of fish and if he says it’s a Derby horse; it’s a Derby horse.
He’s never trained an Epsom Derby winner.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Why on Friday?
Cos the winner runs
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>JJMSports wrote:</div>
After my Ballydoyle ante-post bets are in tatters it’s now an all in charge on Zawraq.DK Weld knows the price of fish and if he says it’s a Derby horse; it’s a Derby horse.
He’s never trained an Epsom Derby winner.
I know the price of fish, chips, chicken leg, curry sauce, jumbo sausage, battered sausage, fishcake, pickled wally, mushy peas, banana fritter, pancake roll, egg fried rice and a can of diet 7up and Zawraq is indeed a Derby horse, whether he’ll be a winning one remains to be seen.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
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