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Golden Horn beat Storm The Stars Brig
That is correct Joni, there was only a head in it but the two horses have taken very different paths since then and I think it would be dangerous to try comparing form lines that lead back to that Nottingham maiden in any case.
Golden Horn emerged with a rating of 90 from that race and Storm The Stars was put in at 89. Whereas Golden Horn stepped up right away and won the Fielden stakes to earn a new rating of 111, Storm The Stars, who had already run before meeting Golden Horn, went on to run in another maiden next time and finished fifth at Newmarket. He then got off the mark at Leicester in a five runner maiden and was left on his rating of 89 for that. He finished ahead of Medrano when runner up to Hans Holbein and that has earned Storm The Stars a 102 rating, the probability being that Medrano’s 101 rating coming in was the catalyst for that new mark.
I am not sure that I trust the Chester form and whether Storm The Stars actually suddenly improved almost a stone after appearing static in the ratings. If he has indeed improved by that amount it has surely because of the biggest test of stamina he has yet faced, at a mile and a half on soft ground.
Even if we take Storm The Stars new rating on trust and compare him to Golden Horn now, we have to think that Gosden’s horse is going to leave his 111 rating behind after his Dante win. If he goes onto a conservative 116 for a new rating, he is a stone better horse than Storm The Stars for now.
I thought I was watching Leger and perhaps future cup horses at Chester in the Vase. Mud would be required for them at Epsom in my opinion.
If Golden Horn is supplemented and the ground is decent, he’ll win by three lengths at Espom. As Steeplechasing said, 3/1 with a run was a great bet. I think he’ll start as short as a carrot come the day. Forget your French horses, your Zawraqs and your Giovanni Canalettos, it ain’t gonna happen for them. There can be only one and only the owner can stop him winning by heading to France for the fake Derby at a shorter trip.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
This is my first post but have had the pleasure of reading your opinions for a long time.
I too have been looking for news of Migwar having had a bit on at fancy prices on Betfair – I liked the look of his run back in March and feel he could step up on better ground and being by Sea the Stars out of a sister of Rule of Law who won the Leger would be suited by the Derby trip.
I can find no news of him since he was supplemented for our Derby on 9th April and looking at French entries he missed a race on the 4th April with a vets certificate so I think he will not be coming – there have been crazy prices on Betfair also.
He has recently been entered for the Arc though.Unfortunately, he picked up a minor injury and will miss the race. This was reported in the Racing Post Pricewise Derby special about 10 days ago.
Grey Lion has a blood disorder.Giovanni caneletti is entered in the king edward stakes at royal ascot so i think he will run at the curragh beforehand with a view to royal ascot.Unless coolmore run him in the derby with just 1 2yo run.They may be tempted given the poor state of the derby field but i hope common sense prevails and they give the horse time to get over the wee setbacks it has obviously had.
Very interesting topic as regards golden horn. I have been fortunate to see all is three runs. I was most impressed at Nottingham where he did a faster time than than four year old hc race. As SIMON ROWLANDS pointed out the last two furlongs was breath taking we shrewdies New then we was seeing something special. A truly great finish in the dante but my opinion he should stick to ten furlongs as by cape cross that is his distance. You may think he may stay the derby trip but he slightly veered left in the final furlong . Whichever race he goes for I shall be supporting him.
There is certainly nothing in Jack Hobb’s pedigree to suggest he is a Leger horse.
You’re joking, right?
Sire’s best progeny include 2 Goodwood Cup winners, Ascot Gold Cup 3rd, 2 St Leger 2nds, a hurdler, a Yorkshire Cup winner and a Henry II Stakes 3rd.
Not to mention his trainer (St Leger specialist) wants to run him in one of the best St Leger trials.
Apart from that, you’re right, nothing to suggest he’s a Leger horse.
I can’t believe that was always going to be the plan for him and he’ll turn up there with no proof of stamina, ability to handle the track or any true indication that he’s good enough.
While I don’t think he’ll win, probably 95%+ of Derby runners have no proof of stamina or have shown the ability to handle the track. As for the assertion that he might not be good enough, I’ll let Dermot Weld’s experience guide me as to how good he is. Not someone to mess around with big race entries for a laugh.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
I can’t believe that was always going to be the plan for him and he’ll turn up there with no proof of stamina, ability to handle the track or any true indication that he’s good enough.While I don’t think he’ll win, probably 95%+ of Derby runners have no proof of stamina or have shown the ability to handle the track. As for the assertion that he might not be good enough, I’ll let Dermot Weld’s experience guide me as to how good he is. Not someone to mess around with big race entries for a laugh.
Dermot Weld has never trained a Derby winner. It is not even often that he has a runner there.
He has pulled the horse out of the Guineas, The Derrinstown and The Irish Guineas in recent weeks. That’s a few big race entries he didn’t keep.
Dermot Weld said at the start of the season that he likes the horse a lot and that IF he had a Derby horse this year it would be him. That said, he wasn’t sure if he would get a mile and a half.
It is not just about considering if a horse has a chance in the race, it is about what value there is in the odds offered. The horse Zawraq beat in the Guineas trial in Ireland was beaten next time out. Sir Isaac Newton flopped at 1/6 next time he ran. Zawraq is where he is in the betting largely because O’Briens runners have been dropping like flies, not because he has done anything to enhance his chance of winning.
Weld is a terrific trainer but The Derby is blank in his CV and I think there is plenty of reason to oppose a horse at 4/1 in these circumstances.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Zarkava wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
I can’t believe that was always going to be the plan for him and he’ll turn up there with no proof of stamina, ability to handle the track or any true indication that he’s good enough.While I don’t think he’ll win, probably 95%+ of Derby runners have no proof of stamina or have shown the ability to handle the track. As for the assertion that he might not be good enough, I’ll let Dermot Weld’s experience guide me as to how good he is. Not someone to mess around with big race entries for a laugh.
Dermot Weld has never trained a Derby winner. It is not even often that he has a runner there.
He has pulled the horse out of the Guineas, The Derrinstown and The Irish Guineas in recent weeks. That’s a few big race entries he didn’t keep.
You’re blaming him for protecting the horse by not running him on bad ground?
Who was his last Epsom runner? Grey Swallow? Who went on to win the Irish Derby. He’s not an idiot.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Zarkava wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
I can’t believe that was always going to be the plan for him and he’ll turn up there with no proof of stamina, ability to handle the track or any true indication that he’s good enough.While I don’t think he’ll win, probably 95%+ of Derby runners have no proof of stamina or have shown the ability to handle the track. As for the assertion that he might not be good enough, I’ll let Dermot Weld’s experience guide me as to how good he is. Not someone to mess around with big race entries for a laugh.
Dermot Weld has never trained a Derby winner. It is not even often that he has a runner there.
He has pulled the horse out of the Guineas, The Derrinstown and The Irish Guineas in recent weeks. That’s a few big race entries he didn’t keep.
You’re blaming him for protecting the horse by not running him on bad ground?
Who was his last Epsom runner? Grey Swallow? Who went on to win the Irish Derby. He’s not an idiot.
You need to calm down and listen to what I am saying.
Why didn’t the horse run in the 2000 Guineas? It wasn’t bad ground there. He won on soft ground first time up this year, so they didn’t seem to think he needed protecting from mud on that occasion. Fair enough it was heavy in the Derrinstown but did they take him out because the going would do damage to him or because they just felt he’d be outstayed by the eventual winner in the greater test of stamina?
Zawraq was seen as the biggest danger to Gleneagles in the Irish Guineas and we now have to ask if they have bypassed the race because they feel they couldn’t beat the Newmarket Guineas winner?
There are plenty of questions and Dermot Weld’s genius as a trainer can’t solve them all if the horse isn’t quite up to the job. The horse may well be up to it but we don’t know yet. Dermot Weld is a living legend, nobody thinks he’s an idiot for one moment. He just hasn’t had a Derby winner yet and that’s all part of the equation when evaluating the value in a bet.
It’s a game of opinions and there’s no need to get shirty about it just because I see it differently to you.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Golden Horn will be supplemented for the Derby. John Gosden has spoken to the owner, who wanted to leave it to have a think about it after the Dante and he has given the go ahead to add him to the field.
I guess we will see how slow he is then, along with that other boat Jack Hobbs.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Great to have you and your opinionated style back Zark. Hopefully one or two of those opinions will be right this year. There’s nothing on the dam’s side and I would be AMAZED if Jack Hobbs ever ran in a Leger. Time will tell though.
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Im convinced neither Golden Horn nor Jack Hobbs will win the deby…I wouldnt be surprised if Hans Holben outstayed them all..or maybe another Coolmore horse Bondi Beach….who beat Bantry Bay under hands and heels and though not visually impressive before hand Attheraces stated he looked “very backwards” he beat the odds on favourite in heavy conditions.
With the front four bunched at the finish it doesn’t suggest that it was a vintage lockinge. Gleneagles looks the top miler around but whether he will go for the Sussex stakes remains to be seen as the international at York could be on the agenda. Glad to see arod running so well,could well be getting better with age.
The fact that gosden and team hummed and hawed so much over supplementing makes me think that ghost could well be outstayed especially if team ballydoyle set a searching gallop. He seem very likely to stay on his Dante running but we won’t know until race day. As for Zawraq. I’d leave well alone with welds record in the Derby and it’s very stuttering prep. This could well be the year a 20 or 33 to 1 shot comes in. Maybe highland reel could be that one. What a strange Derby build up.
The fact that gosden and team hummed and hawed so much over supplementing makes me think that ghost could well be outstayed especially if team ballydoyle set a searching gallop. He seem very likely to stay on his Dante running but we won’t know until race day. As for Zawraq. I’d leave well alone with welds record in the Derby and it’s very stuttering prep. This could well be the year a 20 or 33 to 1 shot comes in. Maybe highland reel could be that one. What a strange Derby build up.
There was no humming and hawing. John Gosden always wanted to put the horse in the Derby but was very firmly told by Anthony Oppenheimer, the owner, that the horse was a mile and a quarter horse. The only real question was whether the owner would climb down from his position that Golden Horn was destined for the French, Fake, Derby over the 10f trip.
After the Dante the owner was supposed to have taken some time to reflect on the Dante and whether to head for Epsom. I suspect this was a political delay to let enough time pass that it looked like he had weighed it all up and decided to go to Epsom. That is a whole lot more face saving than coming out right after the Dante and saying, “John was right, I’m supplementing Golden Horn for a real Derby”
Ballydoyle can send as many pacemakers as they like, it won’t make his horses any faster and they look a bit slow to me. In my opinion, they would not even be running in the race were it not for the fact that their main candidates have all flopped and they have nothing else to bring to the race.
I think Golden Horn should start very short here, no doubt there will be plenty scratching around for each-way value and finding one in the betting without the favourite market.
To me Golden Horn is the one horse who comes into the Derby with the potential to win in good style and rise above the mediocrity so far seen. Zawraq has potential too but he has more questions to answer at the odds he is for the race and I wouldn’t mind taking him on in a match bet with Jack Hobbs, who has achieved more for now and whose stamina seems more assured.
From my point of view it’s clutching at straws taking the favourite on, he made big progress from run 1 to run 2 and big progress from run 2 to run 3. The last horse I recall doing similarly well was Taghrooda and she made another step forward next time as well. I wouldn’t rule Golden Horn out from doing the same and if it were Aiden O’ Brien saying “This is the best horse I’ve ever trained”, then Evens would be the price everyone was scrambling to get.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If Dermot Weld decides to send the undefeated ( ok, he’s only ran twice
) Zawraq to Epsom without another run , he’ll definitely be my selection . He has the temperament and I think
Epsom will pose no problems at all for this well balanced, athletic looking Shamardal colt. He has Bustino in his pedigree,
so there should be no stamina issues either .Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Golden Horn beat Storm The Stars Brig
I know so did Hans Holbein by further, which was the form line I was referring to and I did say it was as a 2yo over a mile so a tad tenuous.
Now he runs Golden Horn is the obvious choice and is 2-1 fav, all I’m saying is Hans Holbein at 14/1 is a good ew bet and will stay, not that he’ll beat Golden Horn.
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