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Serious performance from Ol’ Man River today.
Looked better the further he went, surprised he isn’t as short, if not shorter, than JFK. 10/1 across after this afternoon’s success in the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh.
They seem to be keen to make the point that Ol’ Man River has plenty of speed. He certainly travels well in behind and I could see him being able to quicken through if given the office earlier.
Joseph felt he actually got to the front a bit soon in the Beresford and the manner of his win contrasted sharply with the dour looking battle between Elm Park and Nafaqa in the Royal Lodge the previous day. Ol’ Man River looks like he could breeze past those two and with that in mind the question becomes whether he actually has the stamina for the Derby.
Aiden O’Brien said after the race that he thought the horse would get 10f but not necessarily 12f. John F Kennedy looks more of a stayer and that is probably why he shades favouritism for the race.
With the uncertainty of Ivawood with regards to the mile and the ability to train on at 3, I decided to back Ol’ Man River for the 2000 Guineas as an insurance against the 20/1 taken on the Hannon star. He could be O’Brien’s best 2yo and he doesn’t look short of pace. He was a very expensive purchase and his mum and dad could both go a bit. A lot to like about him and you know the odds will collapse in a heartbeat if the Coolmore boys say that he is going to be aimed at the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
SIR ISAAC NEWTON 25/1 is a horse i backed to win derby but a bit worried not out yet
Others i like are
DECORATED NIGHT.2nd at Doncaster will come on a bundle for that win maiden next time and be put away.
Any thoughts on CONSORT who won for Stoute at Newmarket would he stay 1m4 on breeding.
With regards to Sir Isaac Newton I can only say that Ruler of The World was 1st seen out at Chester & he won the Derby.
I have looked at Consorts pedigree & in my opinion (& I’m no expert) I reckon he’s a 10f horse.His sire is very young to form an opinion about.Over 1/2 of his dosage profile points are in the classic category the rest are in front suggesting he has more speed than stamina.His centre of distribution to my eyes suggest 10f.
Ivawood has a strange pedigree.His 1st 2 generations shout speed & yet his centre of distribution would suggest he could get 12f.However,he doesnt have Northern Dancer in his 1st 4 generations of his pedigree….something that every winner of the 2k guineas has had for at least the last 11 runnings.
Having perused the 2015 Derby entries earlier this year,to be more precise I concentrated on Mr.O’Briens entries.Outside of the obvious candidates (JFK & Ol’Man River) I came across 1 colt that took my eye.Out of his 48 entries there was only 1 bred by a Kingmambo mare to Montjeu.The mare was Penny’s Gold a multiple Group3 winner over 8/8.5f & the horse is called Ringmaster.He’s bred similarly to Camelot….as yet no sign of him & no entries.Maybe we’ll see him along with Sir Isaac Newton in the spring of 2015.Chester was Ruler of the World’s second run but I’m nitpicking.
A friend of mine has been backed Ol’ Man River at big prices for a long time, so followed him in with a pony at 40s, feeling the need to back JFK at 12s before his run at Irish Champions Weekend.
Nothing else has come out yet where you think ‘wow’ but I’d be inclined to agree that I’m looking forward to the 3.6million purchase Sir Isaac Newton, Secret Gesture’s half-brother. He was entered to run last week before not taking his engagement.
I too have had a go @ Ol’ Man River.Took 25/1 for the guineas & 16’s for the Derby.
Interesting that Mr. O’Brien stated he has plenty of speed as Finsceal Beo is the second fastest winner of the 1k Guineas,just over 1/2 second slower than Ghanaati.
JFK’s dosage index (1.50) would suggest he’s more speedier than Ol’ Man River.However,I can see them both turning up @ Newmarket next May.SIR ISAAC NEWTON makes debut on sunday in 7f maiden.At last he is out.Hope runs well and is 2nd or he bolts up.
He did ran well was 2nd lots more improvement from him not many of AOB 2yos ran well on debut.But he did can build on it.
Any thoughts on EPICURUIS a Head Mareak colt who is 2 from 2 and 20/1 for derby.
Was money this week for JAMACIA was ok 2yo who be better at 3 was around 40s and 33s now low as 16s been cut by all bookies which is intresting.
Was money this week for JAMACIA was ok 2yo who be better at 3 was around 40s and 33s now low as 16s been cut by all bookies which is intresting.
Must have shown something on the gallops Darren, because he was promising enough without being anything obvious at 2yo. One of a squillion Galileo colts who could improve markedly for time and a bit further.
He was 4th in The Acomb at York, where the 7f trip on Good to Firm ground were likely fast enough for him. Runner up Toocoolforschool went on to run second to Nafaqa, who was later runner up in the Royal Lodge to Racing Post Trophy winner Elm Park. Toocoolforschool dropped in trip to land the Mill Reef by a long way from Growl on soft ground.
Jamaica had started his career behind stable mate Gleneagles, finishing third there before winning his maiden in good style. He also held a Royal Lodge entry at one stage.
I can’t say he’s attracting me at his odds now and there seems little value with so much water to travel under the bridge before Epsom.
As you say, it’s fascinating that he’s one for money with so many others from the stable more prominent and with more obvious profiles thus far.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve a question what you think of SIR ISAAC NEWTON also his price with Ladbrokes only 14/1 being 2nd in a maiden while others are 20s. if he wins next 2races a maiden then trail at Chester i see him at could end up being derby fav.We all know Ladbrokes seem to get it right with these horses owned by Coolmoore and gang.Only have to look at racingpost trophys with KINGSBARNS and CAMELOT and them being shorter for POUR MOI
but for a horse to be 14s after 2nd in maiden i find it very intresting.Steve a question what you think of SIR ISAAC NEWTON also his price with Ladbrokes only 14/1 being 2nd in a maiden while others are 20s. if he wins next 2races a maiden then trail at Chester i see him at could end up being derby fav.We all know Ladbrokes seem to get it right with these horses owned by Coolmoore and gang.Only have to look at racingpost trophys with KINGSBARNS and CAMELOT and them being shorter for POUR MOI
but for a horse to be 14s after 2nd in maiden i find it very intresting.Sir Isaac Newton ran a race packed with promise on his only start. The form is very hard to evaluate as only one horse, the 4th, has run since and he did nothing for the form, finishing 5th in a Dundalk maiden.
The winner of the race, Dermot Weld’s Zawraq is entered in The Derby but I wouldn’t read a lot into that at this stage, because it seems that Hamdan Al Maktoum owned colts are entered as a matter of course if they have anything like the breeding to perhaps end up at Epsom.
Sir Isaac Newton holds an entry for the Tattersalls Millions race at Newmarket in April but that is almost certainly a red herring because that seems one of those races that is packed with entries but a very small percentage ever take their chance. It is over six furlongs and it’s just not where the horse is going to be headed.
I would think a maiden race at The Curragh, followed by The Dee Stakes, would seem a sensible progression to the Derby in both class and distance terms.
He’s obviously well bred but he’s not done enough yet to warrant his odds for The Derby. The trouble is that Aiden has so many other horses in a similar vein and it’s a bit of a guessing game who will come forward the most. I have had an early bet on Highland Reel and then went in on Ol’ Man River. I like the way this horse picks up in his races and I see him as a horse who could run a big race in the 2000 Guineas, hopefully winning it, before going to Epsom as one of the leading contenders, I see him as a better candidate than Highland Reel now.
It will be very interesting to see how Sir Isaac Newton does fare on his seasonal re-appearance. He could hardly be better bred for the job and he is open to a huge amount of improvement, although some of his stable mates are in the same boat.
In the 2000 Guineas I see a few stables who pose a threat to the O’Brien team but I am struggling to find one who will put it to them in The Derby. Some will say Elm Park is the one but I’m a bit more lukewarm with that colt than other people seem to be.
A fascinating horse Darren and good luck with your bets on him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve what you think of DECORATED KNIGHT ran in Doncaster maiden was 2nd form very good winner won at group level.Will this horse stay 1m4 on his breeding
I have watched Decorated Knight again Darren and the first thing that struck me was he might be just a little on the small side. Maybe he’s grown and filled out over the winter but I’d like to see him again before making any serious assessment.
On the day he raced a bit in snatches, with the jockey getting quite vigorous quite a way out. He stayed on well, even looking briefly that he might win but perhaps just got a bit tired on his first start after being ridden for a fair part of the second half of the race.
A mile on ground with cut in it and the style with which he ran it suggests to me he will stay one and a half miles and I would be against him at anything short of 10f based on his only race so far.
The winner Commemorative went on to land the Autumn Stakes, a Group 3 at Newmarket. One of my concerns regarding that race was Restorer being the runner-up, as a 33/1 shot rated just 84. Restorer was duly hiked 17 lbs by the handicapper and was ambitiously pitched into The Racing Post Trophy next time. Perhaps connections thought he had just improved 17 lbs and could close the gap on the favourite who was rated 10 lbs higher.
In the event Restorer was beaten more than eighteen lengths by the Racing Post Trophy winner Elm Park and while there’s no disgrace in that I just wonder how reliable the 17lb rise was.
Commemorative is rated 109 and on that basis you would think Decorated Knight should be placed to move into group company this year, the obvious doubts are how sound the form actually is and how much Decorated Knight improves. Only one firm quotes Decorated Knight for The Derby and he’s 40/1 with them.
All in all, he remains a horse with potential but he’s not shouting out to me as anything other than one of numerous well bred horses based with top level trainers. If you’ve seen something in him I wouldn’t put you off but he’s not on my radar for now.
As for Commemorative, I thought he was on a Fools Errand going to the Breeders Cup on firm ground at a greyhound track. Those conditions were never likely to suit the horse and we have seen a few who took in that race and won prove disappointing the following year. Perhaps Charlie Hills will rue the decision yet.
I’ll keep an eye out for Decorated Knight and probably see him at Newmarket in April or May.
All the best.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Three times Mr.Taylor tried to sell off one of his lessor lights to his many buyers.Not even a bid did he get for Northern Dancer.He was a bit on the small side he ruefully recalled as he tells the story.
It’s been an awful long time since this thread has been visited so it’s a good time for a refresher before the Craven meeting comes along.
John F Kennedy is the one who seems to be bred and has been named as a leading candidate and he will probably tick a lot of boxes for fans of Ballydoyle. He looks sure to progress into a good middle-distance horse this season and will take the tried and tested path of the dedicated Derby candidate, staying at home for the Ballysax and Derristown trials.
If you bought into the breeding and the increasingly popular theory that the sexily named horses are the best prospects in the Coolmore operation, then you might be sitting with a ticket that has a good price beside the name of one of America’s most famous Presidents. For the rest of us though, the boat has sailed and it’s only 4/1 that’s generally left for those of us who have to catch up via airplane.
There are a good number of alternative options from the same operation and they have a near monopoly situation in this Epsom Classic renewal. Highland Reel and Ol’ Man River were my two early doors picks from the yard and I have good looking prices on them, but not mega confidence on either, mainly on stamina grounds with Highland Reel, and a general unease regarding where Ol’ Man River will actually start off and his drift in the 2000 Guineas betting. The stable also has Jamaica, who has been well backed this winter/spring and fellow potential improvers Giovanni Canaletto and Sir Isaac Newton who is regally bred.
Outside of Aiden O’Brien’s clutches, Racing Post Trophy winner Elm Park will be the first port of call for many. Proceeding winner of the Doncaster 2yo race, Kingston Hill, ran well in the Derby and like the Varian colt, it appears Elm Park will also go via the 2000 Guineas with connections saying the horse may surprise some people with his speed. For me, there seems the high probability that he will follow in the footsteps of last year’s Leger winner, in that he won’t quite have the speed of horses such as Gleneagles, Faydhan and Ivawood, who occupy the first three places in the betting for the mile Classic at the moment. It may also prove that he would like soft ground at Epsom to help him make use of stamina and perhaps offset any potential dislike of the track, as it has already been mooted that some conformations may not suit ideally. Although he’s not one for me, I am sure he will have his fans.
French trained Epicuris is generally next on the list of contenders. The colt has a lot to like about him, being 3/3 and winning on going ranging from Good to Heavy. In the hands of Treve’s trainer and a son of Arc winner Rail Link, he is owned by Khalid Abdullah and is a sure fire bright prospect. The obvious question becomes the French horse/Epsom factor and few have managed to succeed in squaring that circle of doubt over the years. The less obvious alarm bell, which is more of a personal one for me, is whether a horse who had enough stamina to win at 10f on heavy ground as a two year old, would then have the pace for a good ground Derby at Epsom? With the option of staying at home and/or waiting for the Irish Derby makes 16/1-20/1 look a bit unappetising when all is considered. Maybe a St Leger possible?
Dermot Weld is very upbeat about Zawraq and he seems to be the clear No 1 Derby candidate from that yard based on the trainer’s comments. Generally 25/1, this son of Shamardal beat Sir Isaac Newton on his only start, over 7f. My reservation has to be the trip first and foremost. He is entered in the Epsom Derby but Hamdan Al Maktoum seems to do that as a matter of course with all his well bred colts. The other worry is that Weld had quite a good opinion of Fascinating Rock last year, and he was pretty much posted missing in two Derbies afterwards. I’ll leave him out of my thoughts for now.
Having speculated that Gleneagles may head to Epsom, depending on the outcome and style of his Guineas run, it seems prudent to look for another horse who might put an effort in at Newmarket and then be pointed at the longer classic. Step forward another Guineas selection Richard Pankhurst.
Richard Pankhurst has been well supported in the last couple of weeks and his Guineas odds have halved from 20/1 to 10/1. Normally I would have ruled out a Raven’s Pass bred John Gosden runner as likely to stay at a mile if effective enough at Guineas level. However, this horse is owned by Godolphin now and they just might want to send the horse to Epsom, depending on how he performs and the manner of his run at Headquarters over the mile. He is said to be likely to start in the Craven and he holds an entry in The Dante, which is surely encouraging for sharks like myself speculating at big odds. Richard Pankhurst is 33/1 for Epsom and the style of his Chesham win, where he was held up, before making good headway and then taking it up to win staying on strongly, gives encouragement that he might not be a forlorn hope if he does line up. Double carpet is good enough value for me to say it is worth a poke.
Epsom Derby Richard Pankhurst 33/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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