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A million housewives everyday pick up a tin of beans and say "Beans means heinz"
But how many of them open the tin and peas fall out?
The oods of that happening are about the same as a number cruncher sussing racing and making it pay enough to keep the wolf at the door.
We are in an age of scientifc marvels yet no one has come up with a full proof sytem.
There are too many vairable factors where humans, animals, weather, health honesty etc etc are involved to be remotely accurate.
Wste of tmeand effort and has ruined many a persons life. The sport is great one should enjoy it. look and learn. If they want to number crunch they should go to a casino where there less variables involved and leave racing to the real pro’s.
Using Caledon’s own figures, that suggests he was betting an average of 6k per week for 5 years, and winning 2k, without using the exchanges, and apparently, without his accounts being closed.
Now, I don’t have a maths degree, but that just does not add up?You guys are absolutely amazing…. wish I knew as much about trivia as you do.
The clue was in PRO-GAMBLER. I never said I had given up playing at Casinos and I never said my income was purely from horseracing. You just make assumptions all the time and seem to want to spend more time trying to work out HOW rather than why.
Forget my income, it is irelevant, and out of reach for the majority. I am one of the lucky ones for whom a bit of hard work paid off. This doesn’t make me any better, just luckier.
For the last time, I wanted to contact like minded individuals for some good conversation because it gets lonely doing this all on your own. If you are doing this full time, chances are, you are very unlikely to need any help from me… so therefore not much chance you would want to know how I do things. Which is the complete opposite of what the "big I am’s" on here want you to believe.
"Can’t do it myself – so rip everyone who can to shreds" – how sad to have to live your life this way!
BTW.. Ethan, GingerTipster et al… if you can think of a way that I can prove my method without divulging it bring it on… put your "money" where your mouth is nothing would give me greater pleasure than rubbing your face in the s**t you espouse and show you up for the forum to see once and for all.
This is your real fear, that’s why you attack me!
Very interesting post, Tuffers, and one I need to properly digest. I certainly fall into the category of a value-seeker, though whether this results in my overall losses being more or less than if I chose to back shorter odds, I can’t really judge. I cease to be amazed by some of the punters I know who religiously back first or second favourites, with seemingly no apparent acknowledgement of glaring omissions in a horse’s ability and potential.
For example, something called Beetroot or other recently which had a succession of placed efforts and, to my thinking at least, clearly had an aversion to being in the right place when it mattered. And yet, an acquaintance lumped on, totally ignoring this suspect characteristic. I suppose we all turn a blind eye to those sorts of clues if it doesn’t fit into our particular methodology but some punters just seem hell-bent on ‘investing’ their money in circumstances where they are never, ever likely to recover a fraction of their outlay nor feel the satisfaction that comes from finding a winner which is not commonly predicted.
KenCal,
My main sticking point with you is that you seem to want other Pro gamblers (or profit makers) to get in touch with you. Why? What is the point of them doing so? If you are not going to divulge anything about how you bet, what do you expect them to tell / say to you?
Every successful punter I know of is a value punter in some way, they look for value bets. Nevison, Freemantle, Mellish, Noakes, Carvillshill and more; they all do it the same way. Yet you do not take value in to account. So yes, I am very sceptical about your claims, and believe it is highly unlikely a punter can be successful over a long period doing it your way. But I could be wrong.
You say you are a pro Black Jack player, yet when I asked you about the table of odds and chances, you said you do not take any notice of it. Pro Black Jack players surely win by card counting, and therefore are using it all the time and know it’s importance. This also makes me sceptical.
You could put some tips up in the Lays And Plays section but no doubt you will say others could then guess your strategy. If that is the case then I don’t see any way you can proove yourself. That’s life, you just have to accept it. As I accept there will be some / most TRFers who do not believe me when I say I make a profit. It does not matter.
P.S.
For what it is worth my value bets today are:3:00 Goodwood
Espy 10/1 and Resplendand Alpha 10/14:10 Goodwood
Charlotte Point 7/2 (3.9/1 betfair)Mark
Value Is EverythingTuffers,
I agree with almost all of your last post.
There are some things a bookmaker OFTEN under estimates but there are not many (if any) that he always under estimates. Those he always under estimates will not last long and will soon become loss makers as they get known.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI don’t know why you think we are attacking you because all we are doing is discussing what you say in your posts.
Rubbish…. all you are trying to do is discredit something you can’t begin to comprehend and me! A true discussion would involve trying to better understand how I achieve things with meaningful debate.
If it means that much to you probably the easiest way would be to put your selections up for the next 12 months in the Lays and Plays section and let the members judge your results
LOL… you do make I laugh. That’s exactly what I knew you would say and so typical. Yes sure, I’ll post so you can make a living out of someone elses hard work. Bet you don’t use tipsters either, and you are in profit etc etc. What a tool. Now I know what you really are, think I’ll stick around to see you and your like exposed. Move over you opiniated parasite theres a new show in town.
My main sticking point with you is that you seem to want other Pro gamblers (or profit makers) to get in touch with you. Why? What is the point of them doing so? If you are not going to divulge anything about how you bet, what do you expect them to tell / say to you?
I am not going to divulge my methods to them and vice versa. All I wanted was polite conversation about shared experience etc. If two proffessional athletes wanted to contact each other, would they receive the same suspicion, NO! Would they explain their unique training methods that help them win, NO! They would just talk about stuff and possibly in a round about way help each other.
Every successful punter I know of is a value punter in some way, they look for value bets. Nevison, Freemantle, Mellish, Noakes, Carvillshill and more; they all do it the same way. Yet you do not take value in to account. So yes, I am very sceptical about your claims, and believe it is highly unlikely a punter can be successful over a long period doing it your way. But I could be wrong.
Where exactly did I say I take no notice of value? Value is subjective and possibly my opinion of it is different.
You say you are a pro Black Jack player, yet when I asked you about the table of odds and chances, you said you do not take any notice of it. Pro Black Jack players surely win by card counting, and therefore are using it all the time and know it’s importance. This also makes me sceptical.
Again, here you are wrong. Yes I can look at a table of odds that show what percentage chance of this if this happens etc, same for poker. But "card counting" is nothing to do with that once you understand those odds… all you are counting is the cards and TRUE COUNT what is left in the shoe. This is a very off the cuff statement so don’t hammer into it. We are not discussing Blackjack here so I am being very brief and not very detailed.
If that is the case then I don’t see any way you can proove yourself.
I neither need to or want to "prove" myself… was that the point of my original post, NO! Again, and for the last time, all I wanted was some meaningful conversation with like minded people. So far this has been like trying to pull teeth!
Caledon – only a mug would bet somebody else’s selections without first proofing them for at least a month. You think if you put up a horse that we are all going to lump on based on your unsubstantiated claims – get a grip on yourself.
Somebody comes on here and in their first post claims to live comfortably from betting – what do you expect people to say – of course people are going to say "Prove it"
So put up or shut up
And why did you come onto a horse racing forum if you are not willing to discuss either horses or betting – what are you looking for – somebody else as succesful as you so you can pat each other on the back? – they have that on the Betfair forum every day – just look for the thread entitled "how much has everywon one/lost today"
Caledon – only a mug would bet somebody else’s selections without first proofing them for at least a month. You think if you put up a horse that we are all going to lump on based on your unsubstantiated claims – get a grip on yourself.
I don’t want anyone to bet my selections – when did I suggest that? I hopefully wanted people to ask some intelligent questions and I would give intelligent answers in a manner that might lead them to investigate what I said and maybe, just maybe, they could work out a better way themselves. Even if I told everyone what I did, it would make no difference to me or my methods. But then that would turn me into a "Tipster" and in my opinion a parasite.
Somebody comes on here and in their first post claims to live comfortably from betting – what do you expect people to say – of course people are going to say "Prove it"
How about, "damn, I’ve wanted to do that for years. I’m pretty close but just get boged down with stuff. How the hell do you manage it? Any good pointers for me?"
So put up or shut up
Why? So people like you can enjoy their little bit of power. No way, I’m here to stay till people like you show some respect.
And why did you come onto a horse racing forum if you are not willing to discuss either horses or betting – what are you looking for – somebody else as succesful as you so you can pat each other on the back? – they have that on the Betfair forum every day – just look for the thread entitled "how much has everywon one/lost today"
I never said I am not willing to discuss betting or horseracing. I said I would discuss these subjects intelligently. All we have done so far is discuss me.. and unlike some, and it looks like you are included, I don’t enjoy discussing me or my chosen way of life in a manner that is derogatory. As far as the Betfair Forum is concerned, wonder who I would find there, GingerTipstaer, Ethan.. yourself maybe, wonder what the odds are I’m right.
Cal,
You talk about the shared experiences of other pro-punters.
What did you think about Dave Nevison and Patrick Veitch’s lifestyles as detailed in their recent books?
Hi Caledon .. you should maybe just stop posting on this thread.
If, as you say, you are making a living from punting (which I have no reason to be untrue) you will be hounded around the place be an army of hopeful wannabes, now that you have mentioned it.
Some time back, I mentioned a statistical technique that you can use when you are analysing horse racing results .. I was lambasted for not explanining how to do it. Obviously, the poster in question was a total cabbage (I honestly don’t remember who it was) this is a forum for the discussion of gambling and horse racing etc, not a unniversity Q&A blog.
I’m glad angel is working out for you ..
I might be wrong, but I would guess that, from a quantity of responses point of view, this thread of Caledons must be the most successful ‘forum newcomer’ attempt of all time.
As I mentioned in my first post on this long thread, Caledon IS very clever, and, even though I’m still not entirely sure that this is or isn’t an extremely skillful " fishing trip" a la aforementioned " buttfair forum", I am prepared to try keep an open mind here.
Therefore I welcome further posts from Caledon and Tuffers; where’s the harm, when all is said and done.Btw, Caledon,
pointless personal abuse, lack of comprehension, failure to read what is written, and blinkered fantasising are all long-standing normal ingredients of racing message-boards. This one is as bad as any, imo – and I’ve been on most!
It must be all very different from the academic world of higher mathematics, I guess!Anyway, keep posting, please. This thread will run and run, till, most likely, "admin" step in to lock it closed.
Same old racing message-board format, I regret to say, but that’s just the way things are.Cal,
You talk about the shared experiences of other pro-punters.
What did you think about Dave Nevison and Patrick Veitch’s lifestyles as detailed in their recent books?
Hi Adrian,
I havn’t read the books from cover to cover, but from the bits that I have seen I think if you got every pro-gambler in a room it may be fairly typical.
I don’t seem to suffer from the stress that is emphasised, but then again, I don’t approach things the same way.
When I developed how I do things it was simple and really took no input from me so became pretty emotionless as I didn’t have to make any decision as to whether I liked what the method was telling me. All I had to do was to place, or not place, a bet. Even the amount was predicted for me according to the size of my bank. Please don’t confuse this with "enjoyment" because I love to watch and frequently attend horseracing events, as a spetacle I think it is second to none.
Watch me get hammered now because my experience is different and doesn’t really conform to the norm. Oh well, you asked a question so I answered
I’m still not entirely sure that this is or isn’t an extremely skillful " fishing trip"
Hi Sean,
I assure you it most definitely is not and I appreciate an open mind, no matter what direction it goes in.pointless personal abuse, lack of comprehension, failure to read what is written, and blinkered fantasising are all long-standing normal ingredients of racing message-boards. This one is as bad as any, imo – and I’ve been on most!
It must be all very different from the academic world of higher mathematics, I guess!Appreciate the nod, wish I had known this beforehand… but as a wise old man [mathematics professor] once said… even a fool has something to say which we can learn from
And it looks like I will be learning a lot in here then!Anyway, keep posting, please.
I intend to!
In order for us to discuss your method/system you would have to first of all explain how it works which for one reason or another you are unable to do.
Hi Ethan,
If this had been my objective I would have posted in the "Systems" section of the forum!
I am not unable to, I just have no intention of doing so in the manner you seek. I am not here to make anyones life easier without some effort from that individual.
What I think is probably irrelevant, but all the same…..I think we should just step back from the fray and maybe move on to pastures new. A brand new thread, Caledon, might not go amiss. Say just perhaps a topic far removed from this ongoing non-meeting of minds. What’s the weather like, where you? Sunny and bright I hope? What do you reckon to the theory that the whole of life, universe and the colours of the rainbow are all determined by a complex set of mathematical formulae that niether you nor I will get to truly understand?
Cheers
Ken
p.s. Come on guys! Chill out, get on down and boogie.
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