- This topic has 208 replies, 33 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 3 months ago by
.
- Posts
Ginge, there are gamblers who don’t use form, there is more than one way to skin the cat as it is said.
Welcome Caledon.
This thread has been an interesting read…the ratings people against the others, lol! Which is better? As Harry Hill would say, only one way to find out!
I am intrigued by Caledon. I believe it is possible to be successful without reading through copies of the form book or umpteen ratings websites. However, it can be useful. Your gonna have to keep us regular punters up to date with your progress.
As of today I am changing my punting habits. I have decided I am gonna start winning not losing. The power of positive thought!
Hi Caledon
I would hazard a guess that you are backing either just the favourite or possibly both the first two in the market in maiden races when the prices of the fav/first two in the market are equal to a certain percentage of the total book. You refer to a value criterion as well so possibly you then only have a bet if there is a certain margin between the average price and the biggest price available for the fav/first two.
Am I warm?
Tuffers
…so just out of interest whats going to win the 2000gns?
Does your "Formula" ever dissagree with your gut reaction?Hi,
Sorry, I wouldn’t have a clue and probably not a race that would fit my criteria. As for gut instinct, I never disagree with the data…. it is void of emotion and seldom makes the wrong call… me, well I would go bust in 10 minutes if I had to make choices
The only way I can see you being able to do this without looking at form is by using someone else who has looked at form. So if you don’t pay for tipsters, the only way of doing this is to use free information.
Hi Mark,
I don’t use tipsters and I don’t use free information…. both invalid data sources in my opinion.
Would I be right in saying you use bookmakers odds compilers for this?
Again, no. I have no connections to this sort of data.
If so, it is very similar to a successful method I devised myself. With this method I don’t use exchanges much either. Because it compares bookmakers prices in a mathematical way.?
I doubt it but who knows you could be right.
My guess is similar to Tuffers, but 2yo Mdns instead of Maidens in general. One of the two market leaders being unraced might have something to do with it.
But I’m racking my brains devising something that would have a 70%+ strikerate, unless you’re betting horses that are 2/7.
My guess is similar to Tuffers, but 2yo Mdns instead of Maidens in general. One of the two market leaders being unraced might have something to do with it.
But I’m racking my brains devising something that would have a 70%+ strikerate, unless you’re betting horses that are 2/7.
I think the only way to achieve such a strike rate is if, as you suggest, you are betting at long odds on or if you are backing more than one horse in the race.
I’ve done a quick calculation based on the assumption that only one horse is backed in the race.
If you have a strike rate of 78% and a ROI of 32% then you must be backing horses at an average price of 2/5.
- Total Posts 17716
Probability? Value? Ratings? Stats? load of Bollocks!!!
These thing were maybe a good idea 20 years ago before every horse race was televised.
You want to make money spend your spare time watching every race you can.
What a tool that is visual form at the flick of a switch!
Maths, System you can keep. Toss them in the bin and use or your eyes?
The form book may say A beat B last time at levels by 2 lengths he gets 7lbs today and he’s a snip.
Only your eyes speak the truth.
.
I would hazard a guess that you are backing either just the favourite or possibly both the first two in the market in maiden races when the prices of the fav/first two in the market are equal to a certain percentage of the total book. You refer to a value criterion as well so possibly you then only have a bet if there is a certain margin between the average price and the biggest price available for the fav/first two.
Am I warm?
Hi Tuffers,
Interesting scenario but I have just ran some data and this would produce way too many runners with copious amounts of odds on favourites representing little or no value. I guess this could be refined further though.I’m afraid you are only right in so far that you have broken the market down to race type and then whether their is value or not. But only very luke warm.
Is his the method that you use?
Okay, you back odd-on favourites in maidens, but only if they come from a small stable.
Hi Tuffers,
Interesting scenario but I have just ran some data and this would produce way too many runners with copious amounts of odds on favourites representing little or no value. I guess this could be refined further though.I’m afraid you are only right in so far that you have broken the market down to race type and then whether their is value or not. But only very luke warm.
Is his the method that you use?
I’m pretty sure you must be restricting yourself to maidens as trying any mathematical methods in other types of race would be futile IMHO.
If you don’t like odds on favourites (which your post above suggests) then you are possibly backing the second and third in the betting when the favourite is odds on. You cannot be just backing the second favourite only in those circumstances as it would not produce the strike rate and ROI you have quoted.
Warmer?
A refinement to Tuffers idea
Backing the second and third favourites in (2yo) Mdns, when they have run previously, and the favourite is unraced.
edit: the favourite being opposed is odds against.
further edit: I can easily investigate this myself.
A refinement to Tuffers idea
Backing the second and third favourites in (2yo) Mdns, when they have run previously, and the favourite is unraced.
edit: the favourite being opposed is odds against.
further edit: I can easily investigate this myself.
Sounds good, Gerald.
Despite the early scepticism on this thread, I’m sure if you crunch enough numbers you can find circumstances where you can consistently take advantage of the fact that favourites in maidens tend to be overbet.
I’m not too sure it isn’t a little impolite of us to be questioning Caledon’s system in too much detail. After all, he is a new member and we don’t want to scare him off. If I had a golden formula, I doubt whether I’d be keen to reveal it publicly.
I imagine Caledon’s lying in his sun lounger in the Bahamas having a wee
chuckle to himself.
If there is a ‘set in concrete’ approach, with no deviation, then I would have thought it would be straightforward designing a computer programme to place the bets as and when, leaving Caledon to continue soaking up the sun.I’m sure if you crunch enough numbers you can find circumstances where you can consistently take advantage of the fact that favourites in maidens tend to be overbet.
Hi Tuffers,
Excellent idea… that’s exactly what I did… crunch numbers. I am delighted with the response so far and it looks like we have created at least one new system for everyone lol
Glad to see that at least some people are open to new ideas and are at least willing to throw the books in the corner for a moment and do some investigation without prejudices.
But seriously, thats all I do… "consistently take advantage of the facts" proven, no questions asked and the data is out there for anyone to find… but I reckon the chances of someone putting together a 1000 piece jigsaw exactly the same way I did are remote to say the least and not odds I would be interested in
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.