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As others have said, with Godolphin in excellant form Cavalryman 33/1 in particular and Cutlass Bay 33/1 do look excellant value, along with Jackkalberry 25/1. Backed all three each way. All three have less of a chance than the big four, but imo they all have a better chance than betting indicats. Now saved on Rip.
If Rip runs to his best will be difficult to beat. Will he act on a soft surface? Not raced on it since debut.
Will Twice Over be as good on it? Improved on a sound / tapeta surface.
Dick Turpin acts on it, but will he stay 1m2f on a soft surface? Will test his stamina even more, seemed a 7f-1m horse to me. Only bred to get a mile at most. Think he’s far too short.
Byword definitely acts on a soft, but has since improved on good or firmer. His form is not that much better than Cavalryman, who hasn’t had give in the ground this term. Godolphin’s first string may be better at 1m4f, but that hasn’t been proven yet. Surely has a better than 3% chance with Bin Surror in blinding form.
Cutlass Bay is another from BS who would appreciate some give. Looked an improver for Andre Fabre before disappointing on a firm surface last time.
Jackkalberry improving and like a lot of Italian form, seems under-estimated.Only way Dick Turpin can win is if it’s slowly run. Neither Godolphin horse has any chance in a slowly run race. Would think one of theirs will make a good pace. They’d be fools not to.
Value Is EverythingAny ideas on how it’ll be run?
Put it this way nulty,
Dick Turpin
wont be "Hanging" about on the Knavesmire! I can see the headlines now!
One thing is for sure if the real Dick Turpin had a horse under him like this fellow,he would never have got caught!- Total Posts 17716
Dick turpin is a great bet each-way. I can’t see how he’s 6/1, a line through Makfi says he’s better than Goldikova and everyone rates ByWord on their match-up.
He’s consistent and if it rains a lot the main danger will be cutlass bay.
Had minimal bets. (Therefore big prices, so you can guess what on.)
Two or three people have now asked how the race will be run. My guess, given that Frankie is on board, is that Cavalryman will make the running.
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It’s not a case of Dick Turpin needing to be as good as Sea The Stars, it’s a case of Rip Van Winkle needing to be the horse that finished second to Sea The Stars.
I don’t think he is that horse any more and if Dick Turpin shows the form he did in France then he’s a very real contender for this.
I’d suggest 6/1 is more than fair given how comfortably Canford Cliffs won at Goodwood.
Dick Turpin would be value if he stays. That for me is a massive IF.
How many horses by Arakan have stayed 1m2f?
Dick Turpin is by a 7f performer, out of a sprinter who is a half sister to a sprinter. He’s already outstayed his likely limitations. Another 2f on stamina sapping ground will probably be too much.I’d want btter than 14/1.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Dick Turpin would be value if he stays. That for me is a massive IF.
How many horses by Arakan have stayed 1m2f?
Dick Turpin is by a 7f performer, out of a sprinter who is a half sister to a sprinter. He’s already outstayed his likely limitations. Another 2f on stamina sapping ground will probably be too much.I’d want btter than 14/1.
Different lines can seep through though. Maybe he has a bit of Gainsborough.
Send him to the ledger
(of course I’m kidding)I see what your getting at there TAPK but I don’t see Black Bess on the race card!
About 9mm expected at York before the first race. I seriously doubt this helps DT stepping up to 10f, with his pedigree, on a softer surface, against 12f horses of this quality. It’s a lay at 6/1 isn’t it!? Wouldn’t play him either way on fast ground though.
I’m leaning towards the bigger prices now knowing the ground will be easy but its just made the race harder to assess. the only thing the rain has done for me is rule out DT and its brought 3 other horses into it.
DT just might be one of those poor value horses who shorten up purely because of the name. Am sure there will be many Yorkshiremen/women backing him tomorrow.
Be a great story if he wins.
Value Is EverythingDT just might be one of those poor value horses who shorten up purely because of the name. Am sure there will be many Yorkshiremen/women backing him tomorrow.
Oi, I’ll have you know Dick Turpin was the original Essex Boy
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
I think Byword can take this. I love his attitude to racing.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
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Rip Van Winkle and Byword to come 10 lengths clear of 3rd, gettin on the reverse forcast.
DT just might be one of those poor value horses who shorten up purely because of the name. Am sure there will be many Yorkshiremen/women backing him tomorrow.
Oi, I’ll have you know Dick Turpin was the original Essex Boy
Quite possibly FLD, but Dick was hung on the knavesmire, so many a Yorkshire racegoer will be backing him just on the coincidence factor.
Value Is EverythingShould be a cracking race, i rarely get excited regarding flat races, but this is one that looks a very exciting prospect.
Think Byword won very cosily at Ascot. Can’t see Twice Over reversing the form. RVW and Dick Turpin are dangers, but have sufficient doubts about them. Byword will like the ground, and seems to be improving fast.
I think he should be favourite, and also think he will win. Have backed him confidently.
There’s nothing in the pedigree to say that Dick Turpin
can’t
stay.
Arakan, the sire, looks a 7f type but his progeny have 0 wins from just 7 runs at 10-11f – turn 1 of those losses into a win & it’s a 14% SR.
Going back a generation to Nureyev, there’s no shortage of 10-11f success there (19%), also at 12-13f (16%).Looking at the dam, Merrily, well she never won a race and ran over 5-6f only; however, her sire, Sharood, had most of his progeny wins at 10-11f.
Can’t see there’s a negative for Dick Turpin as far as staying goes — except that he’s never done it before, obviously.
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