- This topic has 156 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 2 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
“Had Paddington been brought along steadily its easy to see him posting a far higher rating”.
——————–
Mickeyip,
Are you really saying that if any horse had only had three runs instead of six in the same timespan, that it would be capable of far better form?
Value Is EverythingGT, although I’m the OP on this thread and have posted a few opinionated comments before and after the race, and although I backed the winner and am confident in both my pre- and post-race analysis, there comes a point where I think: “Why bother? None of this debating puts any more money in my pocket – only knowing my methods/analyses are right because they’re long-term profitable and continuing with them, while others help make the market for me with their contrary approaches, does that.”
I’m not the only one on this thread who has been studying the game 40+ years – but I frequently find myself thinking some others must have been watching a different sport to me all these years!
Some absolutely staggering comment on this thread IMO.
But differing opinions make the game and the market and each to their own.
The great thing about racing is it’s not an exact science and even those with the daftest, long-term losing, approaches will get their occasional day in the sun with a winning bet – that’s what keeps everyone involved.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Why bother”?
—————
Because other forum members approaches are interesting, especially the ones that to me – as you say yourself Ian – “some others must have been watching a different sport to me all these years”!
Value Is EverythingIts really not that difficult, mostadahf ran to 128 approx, paddington ran to 125 approx and nashwa ran a career best
Its one of the easiest outcomes to digest, the highest rated horse won the race
And as ian i think it was said prior in here, did it under different tactics and upheld the same form, hes a very, very good horse
As is paddington… as is nashwa
I love paddington but he wont be beating mostahdaf under these conditions/trip
“Because other forum members approaches are interesting, especially the ones that to me – as you say yourself Ian – “some others must have been watching a different sport to me all these years”!”
Fair enough and absolutely!
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"If any us were always right we be loaded and living somewhere with low tax rates and sun all year round. All about opinions and how we see things. Quite a few folk I speak to agree with my sentiments so it’s not just me. Paddington was unlikely to win on that ground but on soft going I’d fancy him to win. The point of the quick races is its bound to make it hard to have a couple of peak performance. Ryan was confident he’d win on his run of wins so never really stretched Paddington.
It’s how I see it. Some see it differently.
If you listen to any racing podcast the guys and gals very rarely agree with each other. Be damn boring if we all agreed on everything would it not.BTW if only horses ran to form every race. Yesterday’s results illustrated the point.
“Its really not that difficult, mostadahf ran to 128 approx, paddington ran to 125 approx and nashwa ran a career best.
Its one of the easiest outcomes to digest, the highest rated horse won the race”Very few are arguing about the actual result because it happened in front of their eyes, the debate was what Paddington might have achieved if he had been brought along steadily coming into the race instead of a 6th run from May including a hard one in testing ground at Goodwood. Some say the result would be the same, others like myself think Paddington may well have won which would mean a different race, different outcome and a handicapper re-assess of the figures.
Ironically I’ve made folk much more money by giving them tips than backing horses myself. My mate was a betting nut and I tipped swain in the king George when he got his soft going. Won enough to have a lovely holiday. I of course didn’t bet on the race.
We might even learn something by reading / listening to punters who have a totally different approach to us. Know I can come over as “my way is the only way” but that is far from the truth. ie There are many ways to find the “value” I (yes) so often talk about, not just my way.
eg Forget who it was on here, but someone once wrote about the patterns horses made. eg Some are at their best only first time out in a season. Many come to form at a certain time of year. etc. Sceptical at first, it had never occurred to me but I did some research and found it to be true. By studying the patterns horses made I could find value. eg Aurora’s Encore in the Grand National. Because he was a Spring horse had a better chance than the betting indicated of returning to the form of the previous year’s Scottish National runner-up spot.
Some might want to look away now…
Long time ago I was talking to a stranger paddock-side at Wincanton, about the way we both bet I told him I’d basically look at the Timeform race card and back the one in the top 2 rated I considered value. For me then value was just a notional thing. He explained what “value” was to him and why he backed 33/1 shots if regarding them better than a 3% chance and 3/1 shots if better than 25% etc…
That 5 minutes completely changed the way I bet and the profit I made.
That stranger I only later found out was / is a professional gambler.Even after many many years of betting, people are capable of changing the way they bet after reading / listening to “intelligent racing discussion”. I am the living proof.
Value Is EverythingYes, this game is all about opinions and with most elements of the game it is only opinion.
But some opinions are not born out by what actually happens.If a horse was running on a firm surface for the first time and I said that because it had a round action it would probably act on it. Might be my opinion but it would be the wrong opinion.
Value Is EverythingBe mad not to take on board any information that might help when betting. Its what trainers don’t say that usually helps me.
Plus ignoring the narrative that’s being made. The Yorkshire oaks being an example. Free wind to me had enough time to win and warm heart was the deserved winner as she hardly stays the distance. Yet it seems free wind was unlucky. Hoiles is especially annoying in him analysing things while commentating which is usually nonsense.“Nonsense”?
For me, Hoiles is usually the only ITV presenter regularly worth listening to.
Yes, he sometimes gets it wrong, but we all do.
I personally find he’s better than any other commentator at analysing a race.
Wish he was used for other stuff more too, not just commentating.Value Is EverythingObviously were not watching the same thing.🤣🤣🤣. Opinions eh. All part of life’s rich tapestry.
“I believe Paddington may well prove capable of better than shown in the International, but more because imo he has more scope for improvement than anything else.”
and he’s still only a baby 3 y/o that hasn’t ate his porridge
Blackbeard to conquer the World
“Hoiles is especially annoying in him analysing things while commentating which is usually nonsense.”
As stated in the past, a key reason why I only watch the races themselves – and even then on mute – is that I don’t want my eardrums assaulted by opinion that is in the wider public domain.
You can’t get an edge by listening to an opinion EVERYONE can hear.
But neither can you get an edge by rejecting a public opinion and forcing yourself to differ from it.
If you don’t actually even know when the “influencers” – Ruby Walsh with his reviews, etc – are saying, you can then form a truly-independent opinion.
But with TRF and other niche social media it’s different – I can listen with an open mind and I am incentivised by the fact that, if something of value is said, only a tiny audience has heard/read it.
Contrary to probable appearances, I do believe life is a perpetual learning curve and I can still learn from others – including from younger punters, the best of which can bring new thinking to the table.
But sometimes, over some things, I just KNOW – because I’ve seen and profited from the same pattern of outcomes time and time again for 40 plus years and still do to this day.
There’s a lot of interesting material here at TRF – if this place dictated the market Warm Heart would have been 9/4 – never mind 9/1 – or even shorter for the Yorkshire Oaks, for example!
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.