In the 'handicap snip' department….

[IanDavies]

….what would you rather have?

A) A horse who MIGHT be well in because he has been put away since November to protect his mark having won an Irish Grand national as a novice?

OR

B) A horse who clearly IS well in because he has won since the weights came out and goes unpenalised?

This is the whole Shutthefrontdoor/don’t bother with a form book/it’s who you know not what you know in this game/crawl up J P McManus’s or Jonjo O’Neill’s bum far enough and you might get some inside info versus The Druids Nephew/Rocky Creek/The Package (and various other David Pipe horses who seem to appear at Aintree miraculously well in come the day)/eternal info v form confrontation in a nutshell.

And of course this is without even considering the fact that 30 fences have to be jumped, some horses may stay the distance better than others, and the ground may favour some horses more than others.

I am going to say the Grand National ”fairytale ending” ”plot” horse of the century could be a stone better than his mark and still not be sure to win. =D

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[yeats]

A no brainer, obviously B.

A is speculation, B is fact.

Why would anyone want to back at under the odds on Shutthefrontdoor based on that?

A couple of comments recently on the race –

Chappers – Expects to be able to lay Shuttherfrontdoor at about 7/2 on the exchanges

Jonjo in his interview with Oli Bell- “Since the changes to the fences 2 or 3 years ago class and speed is required to win the race”.

No better example of that than the last 2 winners is there?

Not that I’ll be having a bet in the race, anything can win these days, even bad jumpers.

[IanDavies]

Agreed, Mr Yeats, when all these equine welfare measures were brought in scant concern was given to the welfare of my hitherto excellent Grand National betting record, largely based on the reliability of dodgy jumpers NOT to get round! =D

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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

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