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Jac I know you love that horse and I will be chuffed for you if he wins. I was similarly obsessed by "you know who" for 3 years and it is what makes our game so special – getting an attachment to a horse. I think if he gets a bit of cut he will be very hard to beat but I think if the ground rides fast something will be quicker than him. It may be Toronado but I am hoping it will be GV.
I have to say I am with Ginge on the stats front. I don’t believe in them for a single second. For me there is ABSOLUTELY no relevance to the fact that only 1 Nell Gwyn winner has won the Guineas in the last 5 years – I just can’t see how that has anything to do with who might win it this year. Before Natagora won in 2008 we could have said "no filly has won the Prix Impudence then the Guineas". Before Ghanaati won we could have said "no filly has won the Look For Better Odds at Betdaq Maiden Fillies Stakes and then the Guineas." Before Homecoming Queen …….. well you get the point. The fact is there is no real pointer to the race in terms of what name race they have won. Same with the Craven. I think that people who hang their hats on those sort of stats are crazy I’m afraid. No offence!!
As for Hot Snap – do you really think the Hannon filly was more in need of the race than the Cecil one? HS was running for only the second time in her life. She was all at sea for the first half mile. It will be a massive surprise to me if she doesn’t improve a LOAD for that race. I am sure Sky Lantern will as well but can’t for the life of me see how a relatively exposed filly like her is going to improve past one who is surely still very much on an upward curve.
Anyway it’s a game of opinions and the proof will be in the racing!
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Jac I know you love that horse and I will be chuffed for you if he wins. I was similarly obsessed by "you know who" for 3 years and it is what makes our game so special – getting an attachment to a horse. I think if he gets a bit of cut he will be very hard to beat but I think if the ground rides fast something will be quicker than him. It may be Toronado but I am hoping it will be GV.
I have to say I am with Ginge on the stats front. I don’t believe in them for a single second. For me there is ABSOLUTELY no relevance to the fact that only 1 Nell Gwyn winner has won the Guineas in the last 5 years – I just can’t see how that has anything to do with who might win it this year. Before Natagora won in 2008 we could have said "no filly has won the Prix Impudence then the Guineas". Before Ghanaati won we could have said "no filly has won the Look For Better Odds at Betdaq Maiden Fillies Stakes and then the Guineas." Before Homecoming Queen …….. well you get the point. The fact is there is no real pointer to the race in terms of what name race they have won. Same with the Craven. I think that people who hang their hats on those sort of stats are crazy I’m afraid. No offence!!
As for Hot Snap – do you really think the Hannon filly was more in need of the race than the Cecil one? HS was running for only the second time in her life. She was all at sea for the first half mile. It will be a massive surprise to me if she doesn’t improve a LOAD for that race. I am sure Sky Lantern will as well but can’t for the life of me see how a relatively exposed filly like her is going to improve past one who is surely still very much on an upward curve.
Anyway it’s a game of opinions and the proof will be in the racing!
Joni thanks for you welcome reply and yes I guess I do love DA perhaps too much and may feel the wrath of the bookies satchel come May 4th (hopefully not
).I agree with you about people hanging their hats on stats, I don’t actually wear one and generally hate statistics, I’ll leave all that to Tanya Stevenson who does wear a hat which she regularly hangs on the stats peg… but the Craven and Nell Gwyn (stat..sorry
) is strangely one that often stands up for some unknown reason maybe it’s because there is only just over 2 weeks before the winner is expected to produce another top performance and something comes straight into the race without a run and takes it.Hot Snap was extremely impressive and how she came from last to first running on was a joy to behold. I was just trying to highlight the fact that all the Hannon horses on the first day of the Craven ran disappointingly and when Sky Lantern looked as if she should have made her move she was upstaged by the flying Cecil filly..I take nothing away from her win it was electric and if she takes the Guineas then it is well deserved.
I am enjoying the run up to these two special Classics Joni and you’re right it is all about opinions..I respect yours and thank you for respecting mine…whoever takes the spoils on the day will be a well deserved winner.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...With the benefit of hindsight I think with stats you have to look past just the stat. Was Delegator 2nd in his Guineas because he ran in the Craven? Personally I think he could have ran any race in the world as his prep and he would still have lost to Sea The Stars.
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Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It is always the same at this time of the year. Bookmakers want to try and arouse interest in what are usually stale ante-post markets – this is usually done by cutting prices and leaving the others unchanged. If Toronado is such a big danger to Dawn Approach surely that one should be shunted out? Then you have presenters who are increasingly on a crusade to sell the sport and this is most easily done by bigging-up Classic trial winners.
Very few of us know the relative fitness levels of these horses so to be dogmatic about any race is pretty silly.
Bookmakers no doubt love this time of the year as there is so much guesswork involved with both codes.
I agree with you about people hanging their hats on stats, I don’t actually wear one and generally hate statistics
Amen to that.
Most stats in racing are utterly meaningless, predicated as they are on hugely illogical premises and/or ridiculously small sample sizes.
The Craven stats are a cracking example of both.
Firstly, anything less than several hundred runnings of the race is pretty much statistically insignificant. But secondly (and worse!), it is a self-fulfilling stat anyway. The Craven is a standard Classics trial so obviously lots of potential Classic horses will run in it. Some of them will win a Classic, most won’t. Statistically it means nothing.
Mike
Many stats in racing have meaning, it is simply understanding the limitation of the stat and how or if the stat can be implemented and integrated into a wider perspective.
Stats are horribly misunderstood, but people tend to overcompensate for that fact.
Any singular stat, unless very profound and obvious with significant data behind it, should simply be a background piece of information that can hopefully aid the creation of the entire painting. A large sample size is very desirable, but inferrence can be drawn from smaller sample sizes. With 40 or 50 hands of data on an opponent when playing poker via my computer i can use common sense to logically deduct a sensible and advantageous strategy going forward.
In regards to the classic trails today, i don’t expect we’ll see anything significant today. The Greenham is a two horse race, with one protagonist already likely to avoid the race. The other has question marks over the trip and his relative precociousness combined with not even being the bst 2 yr old sprinter last year.
The Fillies trial has a similar feel. A tough, genuine, very fast filly who has stamina doubts/likely to have been passed by later maturing types. Her competition lacks any real unexposed maturing types, at least on the surface. Think it’s most unlikely we see a Guineas winner from this trial.
It is always the same at this time of the year. Bookmakers want to try and arouse interest in what are usually stale ante-post markets – this is usually done by cutting prices and leaving the others unchanged.
It was exactly the same in the 1000 Guineas after Hot Snap won. She became the new favourite at 4/1 leaving, in theory, 20% to spread in easing the other runners. Instead Just The Judge, Certify and What A Name did not move by a Gnat’s Knacker in the betting, despite their chances of winning having been decreased in theory at least. It’s rip-off city really but punters are falling over themselves to get on at any odds once they have seen something win well and have heard the presenters gushing like an incontinent after a 3 litre bottle of Pepsi.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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