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A few horses have won over the last couple of days and have been massively overrated IMO
<b>Hot Snap</b> won yesterday and is now favorite for the 1000 Guineas?? Massive over reaction, I wasn’t that impressed.
<b>Tornado </b>won a four runner race today and is now cut into 7/2 for the 2000 Guineas and in the head of the market for the Derby lol
<b>Battle of Marengo</b> won in workman like fashion over the weekend and was cut for the Derby?? Should of drifted IMO
<b>Moth</b> won a weak race and is now a fancy for the 1000 Guineas also, crazy IMO.
Seems like a massive over reaction to me, won’t be surprised if some horse wins well at Newbury tomorrow and be odds on to win the triple crown lol
Thoughts????
DEEMAN
I agree that Hot Snap is way short at 7/2, particularly as there was some rumbling from connections about whether she was certain to go there, with Royal Ascot supposedly being an option. That would also beg the question about the Oaks en route? Doesn’t seem to add up for me. I think she will go to the Guineas in such an open looking year. Some have already awarded her wins in both of the classics already, I wonder if she is favourite for the St Leger yet?
Moth showed a terrific turn of foot to win her maiden but with the third filly that day already finishing forth in another maiden there could be a chance that coming to the bushes it may be that we realise she beat bushes last time out.
I think it’s a bit harsh to crib Toronado, in beating Dundonnel again he confirmed superiority over a horse with decent form, albeit one who was a little exposed and trained by a trainer who seems to struggle to get anything ready for the Guineas. Ghurair did nothing for Havana Gold’s form earlier today and Tawhid is probably a mudlark, which begs the question as to why he ran today if the trainer considered he needs cut. Not the strongest renewal of the race for sure but it was a fast time and his ability to go from the front could ensure he doesn’t meet trouble in the big one. Sure he might not look at Dawn Approach but he looks nailed each way, particularly if O’Briens mob have to face fast ground on the day. Mars looks unlikely to be fast enough and based on his all weather maiden win he looks suicidal odds to me. I think that whoever triumphs in the Greenham, in what looks a match between Olympic Glory and Moohaajim, will end up a clear third favourite for the Guineas. I hope it’s Moohaajim because I have him at 25/1 and would like to see at least something to justify my bet. I haven’t seen a single person with anything positive to say about him and I reckon I must be on Fantasy Island or something.
Matt Chapman had a packet of Viagra down his pants about Battle Of Marengo the other day but the horse looked to me that the more galloping the track the better for his style. I think he may struggle at Epsom on fast ground and I’d be more inclined towards the Leger if anything for him.
Hand on Heart I would say Toronado is the most likely of the four you mention to do the business and prove you to be a bit hard on him. Sure he’s a bit short now but I think you would be knocked down by each-way punters if you offered 6/1.
It’s a great time of year to watch sheep and lemmings in action, diving in for prices like a Glasgow Jakey onto a rolling bottle of Buckfast.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Have you looked at the form both Hot Snap and Toronado put up this week Deeman?
Might have been a 4 horse race, but what if it was a 15 horse race with the first 3 horses home finishing in exactly the same positions/distances? Just because it is a 4 horse race does not mean it is any worse form than a 15 horse race. Fact is it was a good quality renewal.
Toronado
beat Havana Gold and Dundonell 4 lengths giving them 3 lbs. Before the race the four runners were closely matched. Unless you believe both 2nd and 3rd ran below form Deeman, then it puts Toronado in the Dawn Approach class… And even with a tail-wind – the time suggests form should stand up.
Hot Snap
beat a competitive field. The second Sky Lantern was one of the best two year old fillies seen last season. Winner of the Moyglare and length 2nd to Certify in the Sweet solera. Hot Snap beat the Hannon filly 2 1/4 lengths getting 3 lbs. Unfortunately for me that puts Hot Snap alongside Certify and with the added bonus of 2013 form. Third home Winning Express beaten 4 3/4 lengths by Hot Snap was just a length 2nd to Roshdhu Queen in the Group 1 Chievely Park last year. The Cecil filly put up a Group 1 performance in a Group 3 on just her 2nd career start; bound to improve and is a worthy 1000 favourite.
What price would you lay Toronado and Hot Snap?
Value Is EverythingA few horses have won over the last couple of days and have been massively overrated IMO
Hot Snap
won yesterday and is now favorite for the 1000 Guineas?? Massive over reaction, I wasn’t that impressed.
Tornado
won a four runner race today and is now cut into 7/2 for the 2000 Guineas and in the head of the market for the Derby lol
Battle of Marengo
won in workman like fashion over the weekend and was cut for the Derby?? Should of drifted IMO
Moth
won a weak race and is now a fancy for the 1000 Guineas also, crazy IMO.
Seems like a massive over reaction to me, won’t be surprised if some horse wins well at Newbury tomorrow and be odds on to win the triple crown lol
Thoughts????
DEEMAN
Where to start.
How were you not impressed with Hot Snap? Ran as green as grass was last at the bushes, passed the whole field and won going away. Only her second start, will almost certainly improve for a step up in trip and beat good solid yardsticks.
Toronado – it may only have been a 4 runner race but two of his rivals had very good form and he beat them very easily.
BOM – was conceding 5lbs and running on ground that doesnt suit. Will come on hugely for the run as all the stable’s horses do and is guaranteed to get the trip.
Moth – possibly the one on your list I could agree with but her price is still reasonably big considering her trainer and the fact that he is going to suppliment her for the race. Showed a smart turn of foot and is bound to improve for the race.
Personally Deeman I would agree with you if we were in September 2012 but these races are being run three weeks before the Guineas and are, if you like, the last eliminator before the grand final. The Nell Gwyn, Craven and Ballysax are recognised trials and at least we know that these horses will be race fit and in form come early May. That is more than you can say for those heading straight to the race.
In my opinion last years top 2 year old fillies were not that great and I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised if something came from left field as Makfi and Homecoming Queen have done in recent years.
I would much prefer BOM to Mars who is a once raced maiden winner, Telescope who is a once raced maiden winner, Kingsbarns who is injured and Dawn Approach who is a doubtful stayer.
The four you have mentioned might not win their races but they all have a decent chance and I personally don’t think any of them are overated at all.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
A few horses have won over the last couple of days and have been massively overrated IMO
Battle of Marengo
won in workman like fashion over the weekend and was cut for the Derby?? Should of drifted IMO
Moth
won a weak race and is now a fancy for the 1000 Guineas also, crazy IMO.
Thoughts????
DEEMAN
Haven’t seen the other two mentioned. Also wasn’t over impressed with Battle of Marengo, would agree workmanlike but he was giving weight and ground wasn’t great. Certainly didn’t warrant being shortened
However, would disagree about the Moth’s maiden, perhaps will be proved wrong, but felt she beat some decent filly’s
Regarding O’Brien’s squadron mentioned in the next post, I would suspect he is hoping for fast ground for his Henry’s who obviously need good-fast ground. Mars running well would be sufficient, should he win the 2000 it would just be a bonus.
I think that whoever triumphs in the Greenham, in what looks a match between Olympic Glory and Moohaajim, will end up a clear third favourite for the Guineas. I hope it’s Moohaajim because I have him at 25/1 and would like to see at least something to justify my bet. I haven’t seen a single person with anything positive to say about him and I reckon I must be on Fantasy Island or something.
I am on Moohaajim @ 25/1 too Steve, so I’d better join you on the Island. Didn’t stop me backing Toronado @ 5/1 immediately after today’s race.
Value Is EverythingThe ones I think are overated are –
Dawn Approach – even money for the Guineas?!! You HAVE to be kidding. Did people not SEE how he took an age to pick up in the Dewhurst? By the time he gets into top gear two or three others will have flown. Only hope is soft ground.
Mars – not interested in single figure prices for a once raced maiden.
Telescope – the worst value of the lot. Favourite for the Derby after winning a maiden that hasn’t worked out at the second time of asking.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I think it’s somewhat hyperbolic to suggest Dawn Approach is overated. Whether he wins the guineas remains to be seen, but it is really really difficult not to see him running very close. Concerns over acceleration aren’t that warranted.
Toronado put up an excellent performance and i think is a plausible winner of the Guineas.
Hot Snap is a progressove filly who shall need to improve again. The concern would be whether she is comfortable with the early pace.
Battle of Maringo i cannot have for the Derby. O’Brien has better colts surely judging by various quotes and implications.
Telescope and Mars are definitely poor prices relative to performance. Whether they are poor prices in a few months remains to be seen, but i wouldn’t be keen to take those prices as of now.
Toronado put up an excellent performance and i think is a plausible winner of the Guineas.
Yup.
Mike
The ones I think are overated are –
Dawn Approach – even money for the Guineas?!! You HAVE to be kidding. Did people not SEE how he took an age to pick up in the Dewhurst? By the time he gets into top gear two or three others will have flown. Only hope is soft ground.
Mars – not interested in single figure prices for a once raced maiden.
Telescope – the worst value of the lot. Favourite for the Derby after winning a maiden that hasn’t worked out at the second time of asking.
Spot on analysis Joni.
Value Is EverythingThe ones I think are overated are –
Dawn Approach – even money for the Guineas?!! You HAVE to be kidding. Did people not SEE how he took an age to pick up in the Dewhurst? By the time he gets into top gear two or three others will have flown. Only hope is soft ground.
Mars – not interested in single figure prices for a once raced maiden.
Telescope – the worst value of the lot. Favourite for the Derby after winning a maiden that hasn’t worked out at the second time of asking.
Spot on analysis Joni.
Unbeaten Champion 2yo’s who win the Dewhurst by over 2 lengths are not my idea of over-rated. And I know I’m being pedantic, but Mars isn’t a Maiden. You did say "spot on"!
Hot Snap
was very impressive to come from the position and beat a group one winner on her second start has to be a very good horse with a pedigree to die for.
I am on Moohaajim @ 25/1 too Steve, so I’d better join you on the Island.
OK Ginger, I’ll meet you at the palm tree for a pint if he wins!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Unbeaten Champion 2yo’s who win the Dewhurst by over 2 lengths are not my idea of over-rated. And I know I’m being pedantic, but Mars isn’t a Maiden. You did say "spot on"!
It is not a "Dewhurst", name of race does not matter to me PC. Just a 2 3/4 lengths beating of Letir Mor with George Vancouver 3/4 length behind, all off level weights.
Where is the "Palm Tree" Steve?
Value Is EverythingThe OP was talking in terms of prices PC. Dawn Approach is a proven Group 1 winner – fair enough. He is a very good horse. It is just my opinion that evens is poor value.
I’m still liking George Vancouver as he will be a different horse if the rain stays away. His Breeders Cup form reads well now through Dundonnel and he is still available at 20’s.
I hope the OP is very badly wrong as I have backed 3 out of his 4! All at nice prices though
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I hope the OP is very badly wrong as I have backed 3 out of his 4! All at nice prices though
Geez Ginge been
rubbin off
on you Joni?
The ones I think are overated are –
Dawn Approach – even money for the Guineas?!! You HAVE to be kidding. Did people not SEE how he took an age to pick up in the Dewhurst? By the time he gets into top gear two or three others will have flown. Only hope is soft ground.
Mars – not interested in single figure prices for a once raced maiden.
Telescope – the worst value of the lot. Favourite for the Derby after winning a maiden that hasn’t worked out at the second time of asking.
Joni..one of us will be eating humble pie on May 4th (probably me
but…. the Dewhurst was way back when and when Jim Bolger himself says that DA’s progress has been AWESOME then surely ears should be pricking up. Any faults in his ability to pick up will be ironed out by Saturday May 4th and he will be ready to do battle. I personally still saw a brilliant performance from virtually standing to top gear, and yes the penny took a while to drop, but when it did the rest had no chance, Dawn Approach is built like a sprinter, he will have the power to overhaul Toronado and win the Guineas.
OK Rose tinted specs removed now… Back to the Craven…it was a weak race in view of runners, and Dundonnell was hardly fit on Craven Day, he had been suffering from a bruised foot and was almost a week behind in his work, Roger Charlton stated himself after the race that he had told James Doyle not to be too hard on the horse.
Hot Snap improved a bundle to take the Nell Gwyn and looked impressive passing Sky Lantern on the rail, but the Hannon filly was in bad need of the race. That said it was an impressive performance but can she overcome the fact that the Nell Gwyn in not a pointer to the 1000 Guineas. Speciosa being the only filly to complete the double since 2006. The Craven holds the same stat, so anything can still happen.
Really looking forward to both Classics and wonder what odds you and Ginger would lay on both the Craven winner and Nell Gwyn winner taking the 2000 and 1000 Guineas in 2 weeks time..Jac
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