- This topic has 30 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Fist,
I think you’re always going to see small money on the exchanges antepost. This is because punters can’t risk leaving big lumps up for grabs in case something happens like a sudden withdrawal. I sometimes bet a few hundred on a horse ante post but I do it by leaving small amounts at the bid or offer in increments of 2 to 5 pounds. This means I usually get better prices, but occasionally get picked off by insiders for a small amount.
Hurricane Fly turnover to date is over £100,000, which is not tiny.
I laid him fairly substantially after he won at Leopardstown because
He’s never been to Cheltenham
He’s missed games a lot through injury
He won’t start much shorter on the day even if he gets there.I suspect I’m not alone in taking this view.
- Total Posts 17716
I laid him fairly substantially after he won at Leopardstown because
He’s never been to Cheltenham
He’s missed games a lot through injury
He won’t start much shorter on the day even if he gets there.I suspect I’m not alone in taking this view.
Istabraq had never been to Cheltenham before he went.
He had a splint which has about a 1/1000 chance of returning
The only way he’ll start at anything bigger than 6/1 is if the Irish stop betting…….9/2 at best on the day I reckon.
BTW Good news for all who want all the big guns to go there without crossing swords again….Peddlars Cross is a bit off colour and won’t run on Saturday…..nothing serious, shouldn’t hold him up too much.
Watch him drift now
emmm…. Istabraq had won the Sun Alliance the year before he won his first Champion Hurdle.
I’ve made the argument before I think on your thread Fister that it doesn’t really matter what the injury is, these are finely tuned athletes and any time off is significant from the point of view of staying sound in the future.
As I laid him at about 5/1 it wouldn’t be a disaster if I had to trade out at 9/2 on the day!- Total Posts 17716
That’s why I said Cheltenham and not the Champion Hurdle……..bit tongue in cheek though as no horse has been to Cheltenham before the first time
Hard to imagine him not getting there though as Willie Mullins seems to think he can run every other week at the moment with talk of two more rund before the festival….sort of indicates he’s standing up to his races well.
You’re a braver man than me. I couldn’t bring myself to lay any of the top 4 nor could I lay Dunguib as I honestly wouldn’t be surprised which one came out on top…….be the biggest surprise of all time if none of them won.
I would have backed Binocular again and still might have a saver but I see a weakness in him. The game plan is simple: Jump the 3rd last and go for it but if he can’t slip them he is very unlikley to be able to quicken again…..the most likely horse to be able to go with him and accelerate past: Hurricane Fly. That’s my idea of the outcome and nothing will change my mind.
There’s always a chance he won’t make it but that applies to all…… aminor ailament is all it takes for any of them to miss the race as we have just witnessed with Pedllar’s Cross
Hurricane Fly did have a splint problem two years ago but he missed Cheltenham last year with a sprained suspensory ligament.
His SP is difficult to predict. The layers will be mad keen to get him but if there was an Irish trained winner of the Supreme or the Arkle (more specifically a WP Mullins trained winner) there could be a major plunge on HF. Remember two years ago when Quevega had won in the last race on the Tuesday and then Mikael D’Haguenet won the novice hurdle. Lads had their pockets full and they smashed into Cooldine.
This would be shameless **** if Mullins pulls this horse after this drift.
However i have more faith in human beings and Mullins is top man
- Total Posts 17716
Will be if he wins the Champion Hurdle
Still best priced 9/2 with the bookies and 6.3 on betfair. In my opinion, I don’t think he will run at Cheltenham. In a recent interview with Matt Chapman on attheraces, he refused to discuss the issue, which seems very odd and peculiar for a horse that at the time was second favourite in the market!
Not only will he run he will win.
Not only will he run but he will win. He should have won it 3 years ago and every year since.
I confess I am rather bemused by the HF fan club. He is obviously a good horse but because he hasn’t raced against the other main contenders it’s very hard to tell how well he will do in this race, so I don’t see why they are so confident.
Perhaps the best strategy is to back him for a win and lay him for a place on the basis that he could be well below or well above the standard of the others.
The drifters, the perennial rolling snowball. Often these drifts can get quickly out of proportion. Rubenstar is a good example in the last yesterday, he went off 9/2 SP but continued to drift to 7.29 BFSP. He was giving a bit of jib going into the stalls I gather and I expect some chancer down at the stalls was on the dog to his partner and well they must have been a bit sick to see him cantering 1.5 out before going on effortlessly. Drifters do win, but when they lose, we make a big noise about it
Told you all he’de win.He’ll win this year as well.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.