- This topic has 47 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
First of all may I ask Matron to bring MrE‘s posting from The Majestic regarding staking.
This may bring it to the attention of members who perhaps missed it and may benefit from a dam good read.
I think it will also placate MrE who for some strange reason thinks he is cluttering up an unrelated thread ……. perhaps it is a Ward 7 thing.
May I pose the following question: –
IS STAKING A SYSTEM?
Billy's Outback Shack
staking isn’t just a system, it’s necessity…. I have yet to find a bookmaker or an exchange that will pay you any winnings unless you stake something first…..
MrE
Wwhhhoooosh
, I think that one went right over your head
MrE
or
maybe I did not understand your answer.
When I posed the question CAN STAKING BE A SYSTEM my thinking is as follows.
I wonder if it is possible or profitable I should say to find a selection method/system based on prices.
Say, set a minimum price of 11/2 (as good as any) and within a field of set parameters, say, 8 – 16 back the horse with the closest to 11/2.
Of course how one chooses to bet can vary: –
1) place only
2) split of choice say 20/80
3) each way (heaven forbid)
4) win only
Billy's Outback Shack
I presume this the one you want from MrE:-
"First off Billion, let me thank you for resurrecting the Majestic System by Daz…. it appears to be just what it says on the tin…. Majestic…..
As for the staking bit, what you seem to not grasp is the "value" thing…. sorry about this mate, I really ought to start a new thread if we are gonna talk about staking without resorting to maths….. but you say that with those 3 places, you broke even….. jeeeeez, that’s bloody disgusting, you have to be in profit by then or your wasting valuable resources and not using your bank to it’s fullest extent….. a loser in the long run….
On that particular group of runners (3 places) at odds of 1.50…. 1.80…. 2.00…. for the place part of the bets, I would have made a 8pts PROFIT from a 3pt outlay…. that’s an ROI of in excess of 250%….. why the f*** are you only breaking even….. I’d be a millionaire if I could keep that going….. value and staking are paramount, and until you and all the other guys recognise this, it will always be a struggle…. at the end of the day, betting must contain the basic fundamentals, that is that for every risk you take, there must be an adequate return…… the return is what you want it to be, but the aim should NEVER be less than 10% of your investment….. if your returns are any lower than this, your probably a failed bettor and you need to look elsewhere to make your additional income….. unless your only playing for fun….
I really must stop now because I feel that I am progressing way past the fundamentals and that you are only playing the betting as a pastime, where I use betting to release me from the normal financial restraints, so I am probably speaking out of turn and will slide into the background on this subject…..
MrE"
Good start
Matron
What about bringing ALL
MrE
‘s staking lessons over and have them in just one place rather than scattered around.
Mind you he might want royalties before too long.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi Gang.
Billion I know you don’t adventure out of ward 7 very often but in the general sports section of the forum under the thread title ‘Fun Time’ I’m experimenting with a staking system called
reverse labouchere
or something like that.
It’s used on selections with a high chance of winning because when you have a winner the stake increases so if you can go on a winning run your return will be better then level stakes. It’s best to set a target with this as a few loser’s at higher stakes will wipe out profits quickly.
Anyway here are the rules
Write down a series of consecutive numbers from 1 upwards. For me it’s 1,2,3,4,5,6,7. add the 1st and last number of the sequence which sets the stake 1+7 = £8. If selection wins add the stake to the end of the line but if it loses cross off the two numbers used so the next bet if lost will be 2 + 6 =8 or if won 1 + 8 =9. If all numbers are crossed off start the line again.
My plan is to reach £50 then start stakes at the beginning again, but I’m being flexible on my thread as I had reached a profit of £21.+ with the next stake due at £20 so I decided to cash in and start again.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Hello
Nathan
,
Was the Reverse Labouchere created for roulette?
A strike rate of 25% required before the sequence is bust (I think).
I have said I suffer from weakness of the flesh and it is good to read of another member who looks to have similar complaint, I think when the stake gets as high as you state I would also stop the sequence.
I will look in when allowed out of Ward 7 and watch how you go.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi Nathan….. I’m the last person to knock a guy for trying, so I aint gonna start on you, but this style of retrieval staking is akin to standing with your legs spread wide waiting for Matron to give you a nice hefty kick to the plums…… there are ways and means to stake in the correct manner, and the Labouchere (straight or reversed) is not one of them…. a lot of them are superbly crafted staking methods of which some mathematicians would be proud, but as Billion stated, they really are not compatible with horse racing…..
What do I know????…. well, possibly I am the only person on this forum that actually makes money from Roulette and Blackjack on the casinos…. I also turn over a fair coin at bonus whoring and trading…. and trading on the Betfair XGames I just love…. but on none of these would I employ a staking plan such as Labouchere, Martingale, or hundreds of other touted staking methods….. most ordinary punters have got this staking thing wrong, they are looking at it from the wrong angle….. they are hell bent on greed…… it won’t work, it cannot work, its supply and demand…. you have to approach your betting as a business and the majority do not….. it’s getting a bit late, and this will take too long, so I think I’ll have to continue this at a later date, not only will I be more awake, I’ll probably be more sober….. it is a week end and it’s the time to relax and let your hair down…..
MrE
Thanks for the response Mr E, I have taken on board what you wrote and have just arrived back from the shop with a strap-on cricket box to protect my plums from Matrons hefty footwork.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Yes,
"They don’t like it up ’em" – especially, if I am wearing my steel-capped boots!
Regards – Matron
You guys are scary
I am going to do my lines, at least 100 of them saying . . .
I must not upset
Matron
and be careful incase
MrE
is a snitch.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi guys….. on the Majestic Thread, Thelmasman asked me why I changed my mind about just making a profit to rabbiting on about value all the time, he didn’t use those exact words, but it was something along those lines…. and I pointed out my reasons for the change of mind….. but in my defense, it hasn’t been a total change because it was 7 years ago when I started pumping out MERD’s as the way to bet short prices because level stakes offered no value….. so rather than a change of heart, I think it’s more like the mellowing that comes with age…..
I still think that the correct way to progress is to a target, as was always my original style of betting, but I have given a lot of thought and credence to this thing they call value and consider that the big boys are correct in their actions and that you should NOT bet unless you are sure your getting this value…. even if you have to "force" the value from skinny odds by using multiple betting….. so yes, value is the way to go….
It is no longer good enough for me to be able to lash out £100 to win £5 (5%) because that really is just a waste of time and effort, and it’s not good enough to say that if I raised the bets to £1000 I could make that profit £50…. OK, £50 a day would be very welcome, but I now have second thoughts on risking £1K to get it…. now I took a look at what my pro friends are happy with, they make their living working to 15% ROI…. yeah, I find that acceptable….. but I’m a greedy git and think I can do far better than that, so my target is 30%…..
Most guys will tell you to get realistic and say that 30% ROI is not achievable and they are probably correct, but in my striving for 30% I find I end up with about 22% which is very tasty and better than my friends are getting….. so the answer seems to be in setting and planning your betting to an ROI instead of a points profit per month….. using this, I now know that to give myself an income of £500 a month, I must be prepared to stake £2K a month…. yeah, makes you think doesn’t it…. staking £2000 a month is more than a lot of people earn over the same period…. but it has to be done if you want to win with a 25% ROI…… but now it gets really tough…. how the f*** can you select horses that will give you 1 winner in 4 bets at 4/1…. you can’t do it…. to get one winner in every 4 bets you will be required to bet at the lower price range and in doing so you will reduce your % ROI so your knackered…. that is where the "value" is so important to you….. so you really need to raise your strike rate because 1 in 4 is no longer good enough, so the answer must be to lower your prices to the level that you can get yourself a strike rate that’s compatible with the required ROI….. there’s only one way for me and that’s to mix my main bets with a lot of "shorties"…. and thats where the hard work begins….. I have found the answers, how do I know???… because my last 68 bets have only resulted in 3 losses…. rubbish prices I grant you, but when you win 55 winning "rolls" of 2/1 (as explained elsewhere) you will see a 97pt profit that has been obtained from those 68 bets…. that’s 150% ROI (my target is 30%)…. so you will see why I now keep bashing value instead of just single points profit at whatever risk…..
I may have taken too big a leap here for some of you guys, if I have, just say so and I’ll try and explain more….. if you don’t want to leave a message in the forum, then send me a PM and I’ll try and explain more clearly….. can I go to bed now, I’m just about done….
MrE
Now we are are getting down to the "nitty gritty"
MrE
.
Two mugs of heavily caffinated coffee and a Red Bull, followed by a full English Breakfast (I wish) then a walk to the shop for some fresh air and to collect the Daily Depression (Mail) and The Sun, by then I should just about be ready to sit down and read your lesson for the day.
Good on you my (cyber) friend for taking the interest and time on us the unworthy.
How I would love a cholesterol buster breakfast instead of all this farm fodder multi grain good for the heart muesili.
Billy's Outback Shack
The coffee has hit the spot (I think) so perhaps I may raise question number one.
I know you bet an awful lot of odds on shorties to place, and I guess this is where the 97% SR kicks in.
I looked at this and for me it had little appeal at that time and when you quote 1000 to get 50 my thoughts are that is an awful lot of 50’s to get back when it goes down.
I may have missed a posting somewhere or other regarding MERDS but are you saying . . .
You bet very short odds to place (odds on) and bet again and again with the returns obtaining a winning treble all at odds on place bets to get an odds against return?
I suppose the second part to this question is are you betting ALL the stake to place and not splitting 20/80 or similar?
Billy's Outback Shack
3rd posting here
MrE
which worries me because I did not have my Ovaltine last night and getting up far too early these days.
I have made a cross reference posting on THE MAJESTIC and think it would be an interesting experiment to
push some value
there where most selections are by nature of being favourites on the shorter side.
Todays selection CHOCOLATE CARAMEL is in a 7 runner race (2.45 Beverley) offering only 2 places but 1.91 looks to me a reasonable price.
Would you consider this a suitable selection to start a treble gambit?
Billy's Outback Shack
The debate rolls on in The Majestic thread but really belongs here and so . . .
2/1 minimum price to bet
I am sure I must bow to my betters and fully understand that losing bets below a sensible minimum are much harder or take longer to win back.
If I may quote a market and the early morning prices from Odds Checker.
2.10 Newcastle
with only 3 runners
WALTZ DARLING 11/8
ON THE HIGH TOPS 7/4
LADY DEL SOL 7/2
I have reason to bet ON THE HIGH TOPS which is under the 2/1 minimum but at 7/4 with only 2 other runners this must be VALUE,
Or am I wrong?
Checked again and now available at 15/8, despite this movement I still ask if any horse at 7/4 (or under 2/1) in 3 horse race should be considered as a betting proposition?
Billy's Outback Shack
If I may stretch this a little further and perhaps ask for opinions please.
The dilemma is I have made my bets, I have also taken the 15/8 available for ON THE HIGH TOPS in a 3 runner affair.
If ON THE HIGH TOPS is bettable, which I think it is then how do the following two horses stack up as bettable or not within the 2/1 scenario.
8.00 Hamilton INQAATH 5/2 2f 6 declared
8.10 Leicester MAID IN HEAVEN 2/1f 9 declared
I am fast thinking the 2/1 rule, like most guides in betting is simply that "a guide" and NOT A RULE
Just to add to the mix MAID IN HEAVEN is 1.48 to place and INQAATH is 1.49 (betfair prices)
Billy's Outback Shack
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.