How to escape mug punter land?

[seabird]

I’ll fawn over YOU, EC!:cheesy:

Colin

[Maurice]

I’m sure I read somewhere many years ago that the idea of betting to percentages of your bank doesn’t work in the long term but i’m happy to be corrected on that one.

Until last season, I was more than happy to punt to level 1pt stakes. When I realised that certain selections based on more closely defined criteria were winning more often, I started betting 2pt stakes on them, with 1pt on ‘other’ bets. My profits have increased markedly as a result.

If you think I’m going to let on about the more profitable types of bet, dream on…

[Artemis]

I’m fairly sure that the ‘Kelly’ approach is the best staking model available provided that you are good at spotting horses that are underpriced.

From what I’ve read, quite a few astute players use a set percentage of the Kelly figure, say 50%, because they believe 100% is too risky. For example, if you get a 10/1 shot that you believe should be 3/1, you could be putting a fair percentage of your bank on it. so they trim it down to a proportion of the recommended percentage.

There are plenty of good articles on the ‘Kelly Criteria’ on the web(try google).

[Himself]

I’m sure it was our old friend Van Der Wheil who once said that the difference between a mug punter and a professional is, the mug punter will walk into a bookmaker’s shop with a pound, with the hope of winning five – whereas the professional punter will go in with five pounds with the intention of winning one.

Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

[Author]

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