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If you are using betfair a minute before the off time, there is no reason why you shouldn’t be able to at least not lose, because that is the period when the 100% books are at their most efficient. Only trouble is, your comission then has to come off that. That is then how your bank starts to dwindle.
Racing is a game with mobile goalposts EC.<br>As soon as you spot a trend, a few hundred other people see it also. The odds become less competitive and your profit turns into a loss. Long term profit is more than making money for a year. I’ve done that.<br>Wait for when that ‘no lose system’ suddenly, for no apparant reason, becomes a loser. Your winnings dwindle away and it isn’t until you are back to square one that you realise that the ‘money generator’ isn’t working any more.<br>
[quote<br>. if anyone here says they make regular but small profits you would have to ask why aren’t they making regular but bigger profits – it ain’t rocket science<br>
Easily answered, much easier to survive in the shallow water where the mug layers are offering small money bets at exorbitant odds. I find the bigger money layers just arent so generous.
SHL
Thats why everyone should use a staking plan .. staking plans are the only way to go. You’ll never get into a real burn and bust unless you have a ‘Staking Plan’
EC .. Seagull does make the game pay and I have his betting records to prove it. I have only met two people of forums who I know for definite, win over a long period of time. Seagull is one of them and Del Burgess is the other.<br>
Quote: from EC on 4:18 pm on Aug. 18, 2006[br]I’ll
I don’t give a monkeys who wins to be honest..I find it a little tiresome how people have to have others believe something about them to make them feel good though..who bloody cares who wins and loses?
<br>Agree, better to spend time studying the subject matter, be it horses, footie or tiddly winks
Its not the factors taken in isolation, it is how they are weighted that counts.
I would agree strongly with most of seagull’s factors but of course, unlike EC’s stats, they are not backed blindly
In fact, those factors are what i would call the tipping points rather than the starting point
"Trainer in form" for instance, will be what you consider after the base facts have been weighed up
Make sense?
Yes clive it makes sense but I dont think it will lead you out of mug-punter land. There’s about a million other people doing exactly the same thing. I think Seagull only wins because he is immune to losing runs and will bet the same amount of cash on a 50/1 shot as a 4/5. He’s not risk averse, whereas all of the mugs are.
I don’t give a monkeys who wins to be honest..I find it a little tiresome how people have to have others believe something about them to make them feel good though..who bloody cares who wins and loses? <br> EC Posted on 4:18 pm on Aug. 18, 2006
I care .. I want to hang around with them and argue the toss about the state of the going, how long a horse is and how humidity effects the wind. Doing these things will allow me to evolve.<br>:cool:
With 100% markets on betfair and 5% commission (or lower), an average punter should manage to get back £100 for every £105 he bets.
With discipline, patience, self-knowledge (knowing which types of race he does best in) and some hard work, getting that from 100/105 to 106/105 isn’t that big a deal.
So, if that’s your goal .. and you’ve got the time to dedicate to the sport, you should expect success.
However, if you’ve not got the time to put in the study, or if you’ve "better things" to do with that time, or if you just bet for the buzz and like a lot of action, then you’ve just got different goals and betting should just be, as some have said, a recreational activity which you’re happy to pay for.
Steve
dave jay : "I want to hang around with them and argue the toss about the state of the going, how long a horse is and "
how long a horse is – now that it taking stats to extreme i think, i mean, how many photo finishes will that win you ?
how many photo finishes will that win you ?<br> sberry Posted on 9:56 am on Aug. 19, 2006
<br>I dont know Simon, its all a mystery to me.<br>:(
flatcapgamble…
I don’t suppose you will listen to the house dog,<br>but really, all you monkeymen constantly watching horses,<br>and have you noticed how rarely the horses look back at you ?<br>Have you wondered why ?<br>Think about it !<br>They are secretly ticking their brains over<br>and thinking to themselves<br>that you are all sixpences. <br>Most of you are now obsessed with watching your own brothers and sisters – not going round and round parks like the horses, no,<br>but captive in a boxed community like the apes in London Zoo.
Ah but mug punter land<br>Now I will refer to Gamble’s authoratitive writtings,<br>yes he calls them writtings, on this subjest.
Mugpunterland is a vast vast place.<br>It gets hot in summer and goats roam over the hills<br>in winter its very cold and the snow is light pink.<br>Few find an exit once they enter the land<br>but certainly there is an exit<br>beyond the cotton hills where a huge oak<br>stretches it arm<br>to signal the way.<br>Few see it, as so many sheep roam there<br>winking at men in an undressed state<br>to distract the normal brain into a semi-slumber stupor<br>that serial losers often call ‘ the next day ‘<br>and distracting thoughts enter heads like<br> by GAAD life aint so BAD<br>I aint no LOSER here in muggie<br>it was just a BAD run.<br>Those lucky few that arrive at the junction<br>are faced by a fork with two similar signposts<br>with writing, yes writing on.<br>SHANGRI LA in bold
now :scratchchin:<br>Take the left fork and you’re led up<br> an ascending mountain path<br>and you’ll notice the tempy drop.<br>You’ll know when you’ve reached La la<br> ,as many call it, because a chorus<br>of beautiful music blasts la la out of the rock but<br>the path eventually takes you back to mug land<br>and those damn cotton hills<br>but that old oak tree has limped away.
Now take<br>take the right fork and you’ll go up a narrow<br>path, high up, where huge pink snow drifts<br>make the going tough<br>eventually you’ll reach <br>la la<br>and you’re welcomed as a permanent resident<br>by this guy :old:
in fact most of them there look like him<br>and there are no women<br>just books and secrets<br>and that thick pink snow<br>but it stick onlys to the mountain<br>never the floor like it does in mugland,<br>and has a thicker consistency of paper<br>than muggie snow.<br>There’s a large moving statue of Shergar right at the top<br>Once you’ve seen that<br>and everyone there sees it<br>you’re trapped<br>there’s no escape<br>and no youth<br>- some call the place paradise<br>other’s ‘ so that’s what happened to Shergar ‘ :laugh:
ec <br>I dont really care what you think all I have done is to show how I escaped ‘mug punter land’. (This is the subject under discussion) I can e mail you my betfair records if you wish. :)
As Steve has mentioned with the current low rates of the ‘take out’ punters have never had it so easy. <br>And with discipline and a fair amont of effort overall profits are not a dream.
As I have mentioned on here before one could do far worst than look at Jims website its all free. Jim is a member of this forum. <br>Jim has made a level stake profit every day and the past week shows a l.s.p. of over 87 points and he has made a level stake profit for each of the past 7 days.<br>No doubt ec will think this is all ‘pie in the sky’ but the selections and results are all listed.<br>His website is jts-racing<br>As the site is free there is no intention of any spamming.<br>Jim is another that has escaped ‘mug punter land’
Quote: from sberry on 9:52 pm on Aug. 17, 2006[br]turnover of 10k a week ? – i turned over 10k on a saturday and made about 350, another 5 days profits but i was still down after one bad day for the month – there are a million and one ways to skin a dog and my first rule with racing is never rule anything out forever.  that said it is fookin hard work and 99% of punters must still lose.  therefore i have to say you can’t put any rules on it but some people i know do make a profit – to do it regularly though, each year, each week, constantly though is rarer than rocking horse s**t<br>.  if anyone here says they make regular but small profits you would have to ask why aren’t they making regular but bigger profits – it ain’t rocket science<br>
We’ve been through this argument before.
If you can afford to bet £10k a day for a profit of £350 (3.5%) and know you’ll lose all of it some days, why ‘invest’ in horse racing?
If you’re betting that amount 300 days a year that’s £3m a year. There must be other markets such as property, that will pay many times 3.5%pa.
Otherwise it’s an extremely expensive and time-consuming hobby.
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