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I always thought that a trainers form was dependant on if the handbrake was on or off, a cynical approach but I dont think it would be far of the truth outside the top 5 yards.
Whats your opinion on how a trainer manages to go in and out of form?
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Can be various reasons like a bug sweeping the yard but that’s probably the most over used assumed reason.
Most of the time it’s a spate of horses who are slow to come to themself all having a run around the same time while others are resting after having done the job and are now been let down in preparation for a big meeting.
NTD is a classic example who in the past tended to have a lot of early season types or at least worked them harder than most and had them ready and won bundles of small races but by Xmas they have gone over the top. Once rested they’re brought back up to peak fitness again and the quiet spell is over.
I heard has changed his feed recently to try and overcome that.
Jonjo can have terrible spells as he runs a similar organisation but you can be 100% over the season he’ll still have 100 plus winners.
I heard someone say Mark Johnson are so well fed and got so much protien stuffed down their throats when you think the handicapper has got them they bounce back and make a complte fool out of you. Weird how the market very seldom is right on his horses I doubt if he knows himself what they are going to do next or cares as it works for him.
When a virus does hit early season by the time it goes a trainers horses are so well handicapped they start winning left right and centre.
Not down to handbrakes despite what some may say. A lot of trainers out there wish it was that easy.
Trying to follow it all will drive you insane a point to which most trainers get to at some point of their careers.
Virus (as referred)
Training regime (as referred)
Type of horse bought e.g. early season juvenile
Type of racing e.g. large field back end maiden has mix of those competitive plus those getting experience
Type of going- softer ground end of flat season
Horses done enough racing for the season
In longer term:-
Split with key owner
Split with buyer of horses
Key staff member leaves
Trainer losing motivation
- Total Posts 17716
Trainers have lives and emotions outside racing that can seriously effect the stable form. Any variance in form is usually fairly circumstantial. Most of the reasons are already listed above. The "virus" excuse is the one most lamely and wrongly applied.
Of all the reasons listed so far ‘a key member of staff leaving’ is often one of the biggest factors. Also a significant variation in the quality of feed can go a fair way to +/- a stable’s form.
Trainers have lives and emotions outside racing that can seriously effect the stable form.
Thats why Michael Bells horses are running like they are!
- Total Posts 17716
All of the above are very much to the point.
I would say, though, that many assumptions of a stable being "out of form" don’t really hold water. Every stable will have a run of sustained bad luck, or poor stats, from time to time – and mathematically very few of these variations are "statistically significant".
"Out of form" is what happened to Henry Cecil over about five seasons: that’s the length of time which is needed to prove a genuine loss of form.
You can’t argue with feelings, but the fact is that stables do not go in and out of form with quite the regularity which too many people claim!
Going racing, you can often see the trainers "in form", by horses shiny coats (their well-being). Likewise, trainers out of form often have horses with dull or (this time of year) woolly coats. Even with non-racing stables you can see a yard’s wellbeing. And they haven’t changed feed or staff or anything else.
Do believe where a yard is situated matters more these days. It may not be a coincidence that most of the good National Hunt stables are situated in the south west. South coast of Wales is also becoming a place to be. Their climates might make it easier for them to keep free from bugs.
Fist rightly points out Twister usually has a poor spell around Christmas / New Year, but this effects Imperial Commander (those racing in conditions races) as well as handicappers. So don’t see it is due to becoming well or poorly handicapped. If NTD is in good form on Boxing Day (doubtful) this year, get on IC.
Some yards like Barry Hills and John Dunlop often start the season well, though the former less so this term for some reason. May not be a coincidence that Cox (just down the road) and Muir (next door) were having a poor time of it. Don’t think trainers can choose when to have good spells, otherwise everyone would be in form for Royal Ascot or Cheltenham. Jonjo does particularly well in the spring. Mark Johnston can do well at the Goodwood Festival, but not so well at York’s Ebor meeting.
Stoutey had an awful spell for a long time in July. This can not purely be put down to poor horses, as some said at the time. If that were the case his strike rate would not recover all year.Am sure a yard that’s had a poor year is down to a severe virus. At Salisbury I overheard an owner from Tom Dascombe’s yard, say "Tom had not been able to get rid of a virus all year", since moving to Michael Owen’s. Yet at Lambourn he looked a top trainer in the making. I wonder whether a severe virus is very hard (if not impossible) to eradicate. Marcus Treggonig is another who looked destined for the top at one stage a few years ago. Is all well at Kingswood?
Ralph Beckett I believe is another one likely to go on to better things. Done exceptionally well at Whitsbury and before. Yet have a niggling doubt whether he’ll be able to show the same strike rate at Kimpton next year.There’s probably all grades of viruses, some don’t last long and after a couple of weeks they’re back to normal.
So, I believe it’s more down to things like micro-climates, viruses (both severe and not so severe), and other things you just can’t put your finger on.
However, more rubbish is talked about "in form" and "out of form" than most racing subjects. A trainer has 1 winner and he’s talked of as "in form". He/she has a good two week spell with a 40% strike rate, and he’s still talked about being "in form" three weeks later. Despite not having a winner or many placed since. Similarly, a trainer without a win for a month is not necessarily in "poor form", if those who’ve run have run to form. Strike rates are not the be all and end all.
I do find "Trainer Form" in the Racing Post useful, but it’s often out of date. ie, by the time the stats suggest a trainer is in or out of form it’s too late. Much better to click each individual trainer on a Sporting Life racecard to get a race by race three week lowdown, with finishing positions and SP’s of every runner. A 12/1 shot can not be expected to win, so a placed effort suggests he’s run to form. Or an odds-on second might suggest it did not run to form.
Also find some RTF figures can be a bit misleading. 1 winner from 2 runners is 50%rtf, where as 0 from 2 is 0%.Value Is EverythingAll of the above are very much to the point.
I would say, though, that many assumptions of a stable being "out of form" don’t really hold water. Every stable will have a run of sustained bad luck, or poor stats, from time to time – and mathematically very few of these variations are "statistically significant".
"Out of form" is what happened to Henry Cecil over about five seasons: that’s the length of time which is needed to prove a genuine loss of form.
You can’t argue with feelings, but the fact is that stables do not go in and out of form with quite the regularity which too many people claim!
Cecil had personal and health problems.
Some of his leading owners either died (Jim Joel and Lord Howard de Walden) or pulled out
Khalid Abdulla remained loyal but didn’t seem to have the numbers or quality with Cecil until Passage of Time started a comeback
You can’t argue with feelings, but the fact is that stables do not go in and out of form with quite the regularity which too many people claim!
All depends on what you are looking at Pinza, like I said, many are said to be "in form" or "out of form" when they’re not.
Fact, what fact? It’s a case of opinion based on evidence. Totally disagree. Trainer form is a big part of my form study, and often find a poor run of my results coincides with me not taking enough notice of trainers in form. Out of form horses can come back to form if the trainer is in good form. Particularly if last time it ran the trainer was in poor form. And vice versa.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Virus (as referred)
Training regime (as referred)
Type of horse bought e.g. early season juvenile
Type of racing e.g. large field back end maiden has mix of those competitive plus those getting experience
Type of going- softer ground end of flat season
Horses done enough racing for the season
In longer term:-
Split with key owner
Split with buyer of horses
Key staff member leaves
Trainer losing motivation
Thats a first rate list Lingfield. You got so many ready make excuses you’d make a first class trainer. I would paton that lot and sell it to all the ones who are doing badly
So seconds, thirds and running on fourth placings, as opposed to getting up on the line, equates to ‘out of form’ for a trainer?
Horses tailing off or consistently finding nothing in the closing stages tells the story, for me.A stat telling me trainer X hasn’t had a winner for three weeks tells me absolutely nothing, and I’d of thought those who are serious about their punting looked closer before coming to any conclusions.
Horses tailing off or consistently finding nothing in the closing stages tells the story, for me.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.