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Who’s to say this year’s renewal will even have fewer than 40 runners? Perhaps there’ll be a maximum field and this thread will have been completely pointless. I think that’s a likely scenario.
Here’s an extract from an earlier post by me on the previous page of this thread:
Attempting to turn a race into a ‘quality handicap’ is all very well but when horses who have the rare advantage of natural class are further assisted by the handicapper, there can, for my money, only be
one long-term outcome
– the realisation by connections that the discrimination level, allied to cost of entry, and, perhaps, risk of injury, makes it no longer worthwhile running.
Would help me Steeplechasing if you’d tell me…
How much less each individual horse carried less than its OR in the last four years?Two of the last 3 winners carried more than their OR, Mon Mome 3 and Ballabriggs 4 so both should have had under the "magic" 11 st and the other Don’t Push It was no different.
What a Friend over a stone and Silver By Nature 11 lbs well in were both unsighted last year.Yeats, how do you come to the conclusion that BB and MM carried more than their OR please?
I’d count half a stone as ‘big favours’, wouldn’t you?
Was 7 lbs just a guess then?
Only I didn’t think it was as much as that.If you read my post again you’ll see that it was Timeform who reported it as 7lbs.
Apologies Steeplechasing for missing that.
Obviously the ones below don’t all get 7 lbs taken off, with amount of "advantage" decreasing.
As I’ve said, I don’t agree with the OR’s changing either. Seem to me more about getting more horses in to the "handicap proper" than reversing any so called "top weight disadvantage".
However, the fact remains, these weight changes are yet to make a difference to any National result. So it has nothing to do with the last three winners being 11-0+. Therefore trainers not running lesser weights would be nuts forgoing the chance of a massive pay. We’ve also not heard much (if any) protests from connections.
It is weight relating to other runners that matters, not actual weight carried.
Value Is EverythingYeats, how do you come to the conclusion that BB and MM carried more than their OR please?
Steeplechasing, it’s not a conclusion, it’s a fact.
It’s the weight they carried on the day compared to their official rating on that day, they would have had less weight by 3 and 4 lbs if the weights had been done at the 5 day stage like happens for most other races.Mon Mome’s drop was obviously due to his moderate form after the weights came out and Ballabriggs dropped for the same reason after getting beaten at odds on.
This shows weight this year’s runners would carry IF going by their "Official Rating". Then (in brackets) what I’d imagine could happen with Handicapper’s muddling.
GRAND NATIONAL 2012
13-P031
SYNCHRONISED
9 11-10 J P McManus / Jonjo O’Neill 168
1/10P-13WEIRD AL
9 11-6 Brannon, Dennis, Dick, Holden / Donald McCain 164
115-F31MIDNIGHT CHASE
10 11-5 Lady Clarke / Neil Mulholland 163
11/1121-BALLABRIGGS
11 11-2 Trevor Hemmings / Donald McCain 160
11121/2-BURTON PORT
8 11-2 Trevor Hemmings / Nicky Henderson 160
51U/022/-BLACK APALACHI
13 11-1 Gerard Burke / Dessie Hughes IRE 159
2F-0511CALGARY BAY
9 11-1 Camilla Radford / Henrietta Knight 159
106-P42NEPTUNE COLLONGES
11 11-1 John Hales / Paul Nicholls 159
F01/35-2
PLANET OF SOUND
10 11-1 Charles Lloyd-Baker / Philip Hobbs 159
F-6041U ALFA BEAT 8 11-0 Irvin Naylor / John Hanlon IRE 158 (11-6)
140310 UNCLE JUNIOR 11 10-12 Mrs M McMahon / Willie Mullins IRE 156 (11-4)
143111 BLAZING TEMPO 8 10-10 Susannah Ricci / Willie Mullins IRE 154 (11-2)
6/3U34-1 DEEP PURPLE 11 10-10 Paul Green / Evan Williams 154 (11-2)
363144 SCOTSIRISH 11 10-10 Double R Stables Syndicate / Willie Mullins IRE 154 (11-2)
131/321- JUNIOR 9 10-9 Middleham Park Racing LI / David Pipe 153 (11-1)
112-021 QUANTITATIVEEASING 7 10-9J P McManus / Nicky Henderson 153 (11-1)
04-5060 TARTAK 9 10-9 David Fox / Tim Vaughan 153 (11-1)
6/1155-6 LITTLE JOSH 10 10-8 Tony Bloom / Nigel Twiston-Davies 152 (11-0)
1U3043 ROBERTO GOLDBACK 10 10-8 Seamus Dunne / Dessie Hughes IRE 152 (11-0)
2-FU111 APT APPROACH 9 10-6 Greenstar Syndicate / Willie Mullins IRE 150 (10-12)
10-U303 CHICAGO GREY 9 10-6 John Earls / Gordon Elliott IRE 150 (10-12)
1FF-F11 QUEL ESPRIT 8 10-6 Red Barn Syndicate / Willie Mullins IRE 150 (10-12)
3100-01 TATENEN 8 10-6 The Stewart Family / Richard Rowe 150 (10-12)
22-3011 ACCORDING TO PETE 11 10-5 Peter Nelson / Malcolm Jefferson 149 (10-11)
000-112 SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM 8 10-5 Liam Breslin / Nicky Henderson 149 (10-11)
11PB-P1
WEST END ROCKER
10 10-5 Barry Winfield & Tim Leadbeater / Alan King 149
1P-1323 HECTOR’S CHOICE 8 10-4 James and Jean Potter / Richard Lee 148 (10-10)235/3/1-P MASSINI’S MAGUIRE 11 10-4 Alan Peterson / David Pipe 148 (10-10)
0F2224 PSYCHO 11 10-4 Exors of The Late C McClure / Tony Martin IRE 148 (10-10)
//U1/2B/1- ROULEZ COOL 9 10-4 Robert Waley-Cohen / Robert Waley-Cohen 148 (10-10)
3/216-B43 THE MIDNIGHT CLUB 11 10-4 Susannah Ricci / Willie Mullins IRE 148 (10-10)
2113-1P ALWAYS RIGHT 10 10-3 John Wade / John Wade 147 (10-9)
0P2F-60 ARBOR SUPREME 10 10-3 J P McManus / Jonjo O’Neill 147 (10-9)
3F2P/-13 CAPPA BLEU 10 10-3 William & Angela Rucker / Evan Williams 147 (10-9)
3/5P-2304 COOLDINE 10 10-3 Jackie Mullins / Willie Mullins IRE 147 (10-9)
5U-P20P CRESCENT ISLAND 9 10-3 Sarah Bays Jill Scott Sarah MacEchern / Nigel Twiston-Davies 147 (10-9)
PU-3450 RARE BOB 10 10-3 D A Syndicate / Dessie Hughes IRE 147 (10-9)
63F/-52P
MON MOME
12 10-1 Vida Bingham / Venetia Williams 145
12-133F ORGANISEDCONFUSION 7 10-1 Grace Dunlop / Arthur Moore IRE 145 (10-7)PP//1-11 HOLD ON JULIO 9 10-0 Mr & Mrs F Bell, N Farrell, A Marsh / Alan King 144 (10-6)
F11/-111 SEABASS 9 10-0 Gunners Syndicate / Ted Walsh IRE 144 (10-6)
0044B-2 VIC VENTURI 12 10-0 J P Dunne / Dessie Hughes IRE 144 (10-6)
500423- NORTHERN ALLIANCE 11 9-13 Irish Rover Syndicate / Tony Martin IRE 143 (10-5)
14P1-B1 ON HIS OWN 8 9-13 Andrea & Graham Wylie / Willie Mullins IRE 143 (10-5)
2130-F2 PEARLYSTEPS 9 9-13 The Glazeley Partnership / Henry Daly 143 10-5)
U5351-5 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE 9 9-13 Andrea & Graham Wylie / Willie Mullins IRE 143 (10-5)
2F-4010 QUISCOVER FONTAINE 8 9-13 J P McManus / Willie Mullins IRE 143 (10-5)
4-U2634 FAIR ALONG 10 9-12 Alan Peterson / Philip Hobbs 142 (10-4)
F505-02
NICHE MARKET
11 9-12 Graham Regan / Paul Nicholls 142
P0-5121STEWARTS HOUSE
10 9-12 Double Trouble Partnership / Tim Vaughan 142
03F-30P SUNNYHILLBOY 9 9-12 J P McManus / Jonjo O’Neill 142 (10-4)F-03034 KILLYGLEN 10 9-11 David McCammon / Stuart Crawford IRE 141 (10-3)
041-044
ALWAYS WAINING
11 9-10 Mr & Mrs Peter James Douglas / Peter Bowen 140
P/5000-P BACKSTAGE 10 9-10 MPR & Capranny Syndicate / Gordon Elliott IRE 140 (10-2)42F-63F BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE 9 9-10 Noel Glynn / Noel Glynn IRE 140 (10-2)
P-0P011 LE BEAU BAI 9 9-10 Glass Half Full / Richard Lee 140 (10-2)
144/P3/4-
STATE OF PLAY
12 9-10 William & Angela Rucker / Evan Williams 140
2313P2 SWING BILL 11 9-10 David Johnson / David Pipe 140 (10-2)
FP-2661 POSTMASTER 10 9-9 The Bill & Ben Partnership / Tim Vaughan 139 (10-1)
4-P1300 THARAWAAT 7 9-9 Gigginstown House Stud / Gordon Elliott IRE 139 (10-1)
312U5/5- THE PACKAGE 9 9-9 David Johnson / David Pipe 139 (10-1)
1P-6P60 WYMOTT 8 9-9 Trevor Hemmings / Donald McCain 139 (10-1)
3/P22-12 GILES CROSS 10 9-8 KCMS Partnership / Victor Dartnall 138 (10-0)
431U0-P IN COMPLIANCE 12 9-7 Dessie Hughes / Dessie Hughes IRE 137
21/10P-1 MIDNIGHT HAZE 10 9-7 Kim Bailey Racing Partnership / Kim Bailey 137
00-143P VIKING BLOND 7 9-7 Caroline Mould / Nigel Twiston-Davies 137
R-120U3 QHILIMAR 8 9-6 Whites of Coventry & Stephen Dunn / Charlie Longsdon 136
30/-003P SHAKERVILZ 9 9-6 Jackie Mullins / Willie Mullins IRE 136
30-3150 NEPTUNE EQUESTER 9 9-4 Koo’s Racing Club / Brian Ellison 134
PP24U6 SOME TARGET 8 9-2 Captain Conflict Syndicate / Willie Mullins IRE 132
P/P-5142 TREACLE 11 9-2 Bjorn Nielsen / Tom Taaffe IRE 132
32-3P40 ANY CURRENCY 9 9-1 Cash Is King / Martin Keighley 131
PP-5U65
HELLO BUD
14 9-0 Seamus Murphy / Nigel Twiston-Davies 130
0-42026 OUR ISLAND 7 9-0 David Fox / Tim Vaughan 13011PPP0 SCHINDLER’S GOLD 10 9-0 Dr Richard & Laura Newland / Dr Richard Newland 130
2/31P/-FP ABBEYBRANEY 11 8-13 Sue Johnson / George Bewley 129
50-PP0F KING FONTAINE 9 8-11 Trevor Hemmings / Malcolm Jefferson 127
0/660-P4 SADDLERS STORM 10 8-10 Billy Moffett, R T & J McLoughlin / Tony Martin IRE 126
12-20P3 BALLYVESEY 7 8-9 Roddy Owen & Paul Fullagar / Peter Bowen 125
6-12026 ANOTHER PALM 7 8-7 M J M Racing Syndicate / Noel Meade IRE 123
0P3-5U2 MINELLA THEATRE 9 8-7 Middleham Park Racing XXIV & Dan Gilbert / Lawney Hill 123
05-3410 SMOKING ACES 8 8-7 J P McManus / Tom Taaffe IRE 123
82 entries
Value Is EverythingThe actual weight carried is a huge factor when the going is occasionally soft/heavy. Though when it does become so soft or worse, the wisdom of running the race has to be called into question anyway.
Goes without saying EF, although it’s still more about weight difference rather than weight carried. Stamina also comes in to account much more on very soft/heavy.
Value Is EverythingAll a 20% decrease in entries means is only 40 horses won’t make the cut instead of 60. There will still be a 40 race.
I left the forum because of all you moaning fuckers & you’re still going.
Racing is not doomed – GIVE IT A BLOODY REST.
Yeats, how do you come to the conclusion that BB and MM carried more than their OR please?
Steeplechasing, it’s not a conclusion, it’s a fact.
It’s the weight they carried on the day compared to their official rating on that day, they would have had less weight by 3 and 4 lbs if the weights had been done at the 5 day stage like happens for most other races.Mon Mome’s drop was obviously due to his moderate form after the weights came out and Ballabriggs dropped for the same reason after getting beaten at odds on.
Ballabriggs Kelso defeat was more than 4 weeks prior to the GN. Had the handicapper considered him worth a drop from 150 he had 4 opportunities to make that change prior to the 5 day stage.
I can see no logic in Ballabriggs being a particular target for Phil Smith. He did not appear to have an onerous weight that required ‘compressing, nor did he have course form that would merit adding a few pounds via the Aintree Factor.
Ballabriggs Kelso defeat was more than 4 weeks prior to the GN. Had the handicapper considered him worth a drop from 150 he had 4 opportunities to make that change prior to the 5 day stage.
I can see no logic in Ballabriggs being a particular target for Phil Smith. He did not appear to have an onerous weight that required ‘compressing, nor did he have course form that would merit adding a few pounds via the Aintree Factor.
Ballabriggs was dropped to 146 after the Kelso run, if he had run in any other race between then and Aintree he would have run off 146, he had to run off 150 in the National because the weights came out in Feb.
Ballabriggs was not a target for PS, he was put up as an example along with Mon Mome that the horses winning with 11 st plus are not the ones being favourably treated by the handicapper. Ballabriggs should have run off 10st 10lbs according to his OR and Mon Mome 10st 11 lbs.
The ones Phil Smith is favouring by weight concessions are not the ones winning the race.This discounts your theory where you said that "The better horses are favourably treated by the handicapper and carry less weight than they would in a normal chase run under the same conditions on a different track. The fruit of this preferential seed-sowing seems to be blooming: no winner in the past 3 years has carried under 11 stones".
This is inaccurate, none of the last 3 winners were done any favours at all by the handicapper and as I said 2 of them were badly in.
Ballabriggs Kelso defeat was more than 4 weeks prior to the GN. Had the handicapper considered him worth a drop from 150 he had 4 opportunities to make that change prior to the 5 day stage.
I can see no logic in Ballabriggs being a particular target for Phil Smith. He did not appear to have an onerous weight that required ‘compressing, nor did he have course form that would merit adding a few pounds via the Aintree Factor.
Ballabriggs was dropped to 146 after the Kelso run, if he had run in any other race between then and Aintree he would have run off 146, he had to run off 150 in the National because the weights came out in Feb.
Ballabriggs was not a target for PS, he was put up as an example along with Mon Mome that the horses winning with 11 st plus are not the ones being favourably treated by the handicapper. Ballabriggs should have run off 10st 10lbs according to his OR and Mon Mome 10st 11 lbs.
The ones Phil Smith is favouring by weight concessions are not the ones winning the race.This discounts your theory where you said that "The better horses are favourably treated by the handicapper and carry less weight than they would in a normal chase run under the same conditions on a different track. The fruit of this preferential seed-sowing seems to be blooming: no winner in the past 3 years has carried under 11 stones".
This is inaccurate, none of the last 3 winners were done any favours at all by the handicapper and as I said 2 of them were badly in.
I accept that your example nullifies the final sentence in my quote, but the first sentence does, I think remain valid.
Perhaps, as has been suggested, 40 runners will continue lining up despite the entry numbers. My belief is that until we have three or four more years under current conditions (or perhaps more onerous ones depending on further tinkering) we will not be able to make a judgement. The indisputable data can be seen in the steady decline in entry numbers. What is in dispute is the cause, and the point at which entries will level out.
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