- This topic has 135 replies, 38 voices, and was last updated 19 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
Quote: from Aragorn on 12:51 pm on April 2, 2007[br]Mike, Towcester’s grandstand doesn’t really allow for that but a stiff drink and hundreds of expletives made us feel a bit better…
Rob, i’m not saying they should be banned, but on the figures this thing improved out of sight… I’m willing to say that Earle got the horse, ran it (Not 100% fit), worked out how good the horse was and placed it well landing a touch at the same time.. I just wish i’d gone with my eyes and not my head..
The bookie paying out about 10 young birds who’d had three pound each at 66/1 didn’t look best pleased!!! <br>
You should have believed your eyes.<br>The stable done wonders with this horse as they have done with many of their string. Discussion on this stable deserves a thread somewhere else other than <br>" how bent is racing? "
<br>Horse name Heavenly Pleasure <br> <br> <br>Date of birth 26/05/1999 <br> <br> <br>Photographs
<br> <br>
<br> <br> <br>
<br> <br>   <br>
<br> <br>   <br>
<br> <br>Explanation <br>Heavenly Pleasure is a lovely model of a mare but had struggled to do much on the track, never being placed and being pulled up in her last run before joining us. She had already had a wind operation before she came to us but it was evident that she was still struggling with her breathing and so she had another one shortly after arriving at the farm. We took our time getting her fit and she had one poor run for us at Warwick which Simon was convinced was down to her not liking the heavy ground.  <br> <br>Performance <br>Simon found a nice race for HP at Towcester and with the ground officially rated as good and the mare in good order there would be no excuses this time. Thankfully none were needed as the mare, given a patient ride by Daryl Jacob, came from behind to run on strongly and win easily by 2 lengths at 33-1. She thoroughly enjoyed herself and we look forward to more successes with her as both her confidence and fitness will have come on leaps and bounds <br>
(Edited by sporting sam at 10:24 am on April 3, 2007)
I tried to add some picces of Heavenly Pleasure.<br>but they didnt appear heres the link to Earles website.
Sam,
Apologies for putting it on this thread, it wasn’t meant to be an attack on the trainer or anything of the sort. The horse was fit and there were a number of factors that could explain previous performances. Like I said before i was trying to illustrate that every day races can look slightly off or "bent" when in fact there may be a perfectly rational explanation. Often that explanation doesn’t sit nicely though when you’ve lost money!!
Well done on the training performance though, she’s a big good looking mare who was our paddock pick, just not what I bet on!! Dependant on what the handicapper does I think there may be more races for her as well as she won pretty easily by my eyes. Good ride by Jacob as well.
Forgot to say, Riddler, didn’t you know the Times is owned by the demon cartel and reading that will warp your neural pathways into a deluded state of insanity?!! Come on Riddler, get with it…
Nice one Aragon.<br>Amazing what incredible patterns emerge once the results are in.<br>I`ll have some of what He`s drinking :biggrin: <br>
I don’t like previously pulled horses full stop, mind you i don’t like NH enough said. The horse had changed stable so a reason for improvement is possible no problem. I also have no problem with big price winners and in fact i look for such beasts on ocasions on "fun days" when there is nothing to my liking.
I object to the obvious manipulation of the handicap. Horses must be rewarded for running on merits not PENALISED. That is where i find it "BENT".
Bearing in mind that criticism is essential, I try to give a very balanced insight into evidence regarding ‘crookedness,’ particularly concerning racing here on TRF, marketed and still sitting in the public domain; including copy (Cc.) to the usual suspects. However, it was betlarge and his following comment:<br>“I just find it strange that people can believe in such wild things without the remotest evidence.â€ÂÂ
AR…would it be possible for you to clarify one point please.
Are you suggesting that in the race discussed above involving Heavenly Pleasure. The ‘Cartel’ conspired to put Saphire Knight in as a short priced favourite knowing it wouldn’t win on form, cetris paribalus, and deliberately priced HP at 66’s to deflect attention from her? Therefore, conning punters by manipulating the ’tissue’ and Sp.
Or, are you claiming the trainers and jockeys along with other connections involved with horses in the above race did their bidding for them?<br>
(Edited by Pompete at 1:52 pm on April 3, 2007)
Pompete, don’t expect an answer you can understand… Or at least anyone on Planet Earth can understand..
:biggrin:
Aragorn, and Wallace, are correct. This answer will shoot over most TRF heads, however, the question was asked and I cannot back down from it. Nevertheless, good corporate minds will grasp the dynamics within my response therefore I primarily address them.
Pompete<br>The first part of your question is elementally theoretic modelling or ceteris paribus, yes, and yet, I have an actual model that I had already, in another thread and my book, nudged into economic theory. However, the currently accepted analytical framework is far more complex where it is presently used operationally and too loosely to describe the relationship between both the price and the quantity demanded of an “ordinary goodâ€ÂÂ
Spot on Riddler.. I get it now..
Apologies for ever moaning about the clarity of your answers..
:biggrin:
I was wondering what Alan Ridley was on about. Then I read that he’s just trying to punt some crackpot book (or should that be ‘the latest crackpot book’?) that will surely prove the staggering conspiracy that engulfs horse racing, and indeed everything around us.
D’oh! Silly me.
But whilst we’re on the subject of bookies manipulating markets, I’d like to put something a bit far-fetched out there. We’ve all seen examples of the strange phenomenon that is a massive nationwide gamble. You know, horses opening at 100/1 in the morning and by first show they’re in to 16s and as the tapes go up they’re single figures. The vast majority of these gambles sink without trace, the horse running like the rag it was perceived to be just 8 hours earlier.
I may be coming out with something a bit silly here, but is it possible that the big bookmakers start some of these ‘gambles’? Do they pick out a complete ass in the morning and, say, cut it to 66s from 100s for no apparent reason. Then to 50s. And perhaps eventually 40s. Punters buy into this, and start putting some money on it. This cuts it to 33s. Double carpet from 100s? Something’s going on here! So more people take it on, shortening the price to 25/1. This continues to snowball until the horse is sitting high up in the market. Then the race is run, and the bookies have successfully duped the racing public at large into having thousands and thousands of pounds on a 100/1 shot!
Or am I just being cynical?
Friggo<br>You are not being cynical. It’s the sheep syndrome.<br>And I have known the reverse, when the SP has held at 16/1 but loads of ‘inside dosh’ has been put on.<br>
because classic BODD-M/Neural Correlates Rotation is a purely mathematical process
<br>At last – BODD is back!
For further details of BODD, click here. :biggrin:
Mike
<br>
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.