- This topic has 14 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
hi guys
do any of you have any suggestions as to certain races which tend to throw up future winners. ie novice hurdles or maidens at a certain track or whatever
i have just got use of a load of new facilities and one of these automatically tells me when horses coming out of races of my choice are running and its very useful
i have a couple of races im monitoring but does anyone know of any offhand that have thrown up a few winners so far?
On the flat, the obvious type of race to throw at you is Newmarket Maidens. I personally like Leicester Maidens also. A lot of top trainers send their horses there and the races are often worth watching for future winners.
Over the jumps it’s more difficult to say really. You often already know the merits of most horses from their flat days or their bumper runs. A lot of Novice hurdlers that turn out to be special could easily start off in a hot novice hurdle at somewhere like Cheltenham, or they could easily start off in a 5 runner hurdle race at their local track – Katchit started at Market Rasen, Istabraq started at Punchestown for example.
Good luck – and if your new facilities work, let me know how much you want for a copy
Mike
Cool thanks. Ive noticed that there are just some really random races that find winners. Particularly bumpers in Ireland!
The facility i use is on horseracebase.com – they have a surprising amount of useful stuff on there.
Also have a follow race thing where you can check the subsequent results of any race since 1997. Thats why im looking for some ideas of which races to check and see have worked out well!
I guess going forward i can look at race results as they come in, look at their previous race and do it that way.
Don’t worry ahitchcott, I’m sure you will get some great replies on here.
I’m not one for following certain races in terms of looking for future winners, hence why my answers were so vague. But I’m sure there are some guys on here who will tell you some great races that throw out many future winners.
Good luck with your quest.
Mike
I’m going to give away my secret here but there’s a bumper at the end of Feb at Navan I think it is. Willie Mullins has run 3 or 4 for the last couple of years and won it both times with the favourite by a total of around 30 lengths. The shortest priced one is the one to lump on and it’s a great trading opportunity for the Champion Bumper too.
There’s an old saying "Keep your self in the best company and your horse in the worst" As Mickey pointed out you can get some real good novice hurdlers running at small tracks where the opposition tends to be weak….Chances are the owner is going for a touch to try and recoup the cost of buying the horse.
Generally speaking though if a novice hurdler wins at Ascot they are usually worth following and in the North the same can be said about Wetherby..your horse normally needs to be very decent to win at either track.
Here are the strike rates for horses running in their second ever chase. The courses listed are the courses they ran at on their first ever chase. Data is 2006/2007
Course Strike rate Runners
WINDSOR 33.33% 3
AINTREE 30.77% 13
SANDOWN 25.00% 20
PERTH 22.22% 27
HAYDOCK 20.00% 15
HUNTINGDON 18.31% 71
CARLISLE 17.44% 86
SOUTHWELL 17.14% 35
CHELTENHAM 16.33% 49
FOLKESTONE 16.13% 62
FAKENHAM 15.38% 39
AYR 15.15% 33
HEXHAM 14.81% 81
LINGFIELD 14.81% 27
TAUNTON 14.29% 49
KEMPTON 14.29% 28
NEWTON ABBOT 13.89% 36
CATTERICK 13.89% 36
NEWCASTLE 13.79% 29
PLUMPTON 13.73% 51
NEWBURY 13.51% 37
WORCESTER 12.66% 79
WARWICK 12.00% 25
FONTWELL 11.94% 67
MUSSELBURGH 11.76% 17
SEDGEFIELD 10.43% 115
HEREFORD 10.31% 97
TOWCESTER 10.26% 78
KELSO 10.17% 59
EXETER 10.00% 80
BANGOR-ON-DEE 9.72% 72
WETHERBY 9.30% 43
MARKET RASEN 8.82% 68
LEICESTER 8.06% 62
ASCOT 7.69% 13
STRATFORD 7.58% 66
CHEPSTOW 7.14% 56
WINCANTON 6.06% 33
UTTOXETER 5.63% 71
LUDLOW 5.19% 77
DONCASTER 0.00% 5
CARTMEL 0.00% 19Just to let you know this site has now added a feature that tells you the hottest races based on subsequent two runs of each horse! So for example the top 10 hottest maidens of the last 365 days are –
Date Track Race Name RUNS WINS PLACES
21.04.2007 Newbury Dubai International Airport Maiden Stakes 28 11 4
8.08.2007 Kempton digibet Sports Betting Maiden Stakes 26 9 8
17.08.2007 Newbury Terence O’Rourke EBF Maiden Stakes 23 9 4
14.04.2007 Lingfield Sporting Highlights Ltd Maiden Stakes 18 9 3
17.07.2007 Yarmouth EBF toteplacepot Maiden Stakes 33 9 3
1.08.2007 Goodwood Links of London Maiden Fillies’ Stakes 25 8 6
7.04.2007 Leopardstown Drumderry Aggregate Maiden 21 8 2
19.05.2007 Newbury Sanderson Weatherall Maiden Stakes 34 7 7
11.07.2007 Newmarket Ian Macnicol Memorial Strutt & Parker EBF Maiden Stakes 32 7 7
27.07.2007 Ascot Cenkos Securities October Club Maiden Fillies’ Charity Stakes 28 7 7The hottest maidens of the last 60 days (might see a few qualifiers coming out of these) – are
Date Track Race Name RUNS WINS PLACES
21.12.2007 Uttoxeter Les Morgan Maiden Hurdle 17 4 2
3.01.2008 Lingfield Super Family Holidays @ pontins.com Maiden Stakes 8 4 2
8.12.2007 Navan Irish Stallion Owners European Breeders Fund Maiden Hurdle 34 3 8
19.12.2007 Newbury Coolmation Maiden Hurdle 21 3 5
15.12.2007 Fairyhouse Curragha Maiden Hurdle 19 3 4
9.12.2007 Punchestown Ladbrokes.com Supporting The Puchestown Festival Maiden Hurdle 26 3 3
26.12.2007 Leopardstown Durkan New Homes Maiden Hurdle 15 3 3
21.12.2007 Southwell Pontin’s Book Early Price Promise Maiden Stakes 7 3 1
9.01.2008 Kempton digibet Median Auction Maiden Stakes 9 3 1
5.01.2008 Lingfield Lingfield Park For Weddings Maiden Stakes 10 2 5You can choose any criteria you want so i have done bumpers and handicaps etc. if there are any you would like me to check,let me know. as these can be monitored i will automatically know when horses coming out of the races are running
I’ve always thought the NHF flat race at Newbury on Saturday is one to note. Recent runners include:
One Knight, Iris’s Gift, Cornish Rebel, Cloudy Grey, Bold Bishop, Mr Pointment & Crocodiles Rocks
This years renewal could again turn out to be a "hot race" with plenty of horses entered at the 5 day stage prominent in the Cheltenham lists, including:
Big Eared Fran
Gold Award
Mad Max
The Nightingale
The Old PrentenderIt’s some years since I last followed the idea up, but it used to be worth noting any horse running in either the Prix Wild Monarch or Prix Finot at Auteuil – these are Listed races for juvenile hurdle debutants and usually have a fair few good horses.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.