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Punjabi has no chance of winning a handicap as competitive as the Tote Gold Trophy.
Question:
Are "Horses To Follow" lists really horses to follow?
Or are they just "Horses To Keep An Eye On"?
Surely whether you back your "horse to follow" depends on its price?
Doesn’t even a handicap good thing have a price to back it and a price to not back it (or even lay it).
Mark
Value Is EverythingHi all, I have a few horses I think could be ahead of the handicapper and I’m waiting to see where they run.
My list is below, do you all fancy anything ?
Rippling Ring – should win a few good hurdle races.
Silverburn – breathing op could turn him into a corking horse.
Mobaasher – another breathing op horse from Nicholls, could be a smart 3m race in him.
Battlecry – Like this horse and he looks a National type to me.
Jack The Giant – may not be harshly treated as races he mainly won have been hurdles.Paddy Power Chase
I think Imperial Commander of Twiston-Davies has a huge chance, Silverburn and Jack The Giant could be the dangers.Sorry to interupt your post but can you please explain the following
Corking horse – what does this mean, I looked it up on google and it read "did you mean rocking horse"
National type – is that jumping?
I would like to learn if you can assist, as these terms are new to me.
Punjabi has no chance of winning a handicap as competitive as the Tote Gold Trophy.
Of course he hasn’t. Let’s face it he carried top weight in the TGT last season and was beaten 2 lengths leaving 22 others in his wake.
He then ran 3rd in the Champion Hurdle finishing 1 length in front of the previous years champion.
He then beat the same animal who was no doubt better sutied by the easier course by 3 easy lengths in the Accbank Champion Hurdle.
To put some icing on the cake he beat subsequent old Newton winner on the flat and finished up with yet another win before going off for a summer rest.
I thought he showed a lot of improvment last season, I know his trainer loves to have a crack at the Tote (Schweppes)… but hey!! I can tell by what you wrote you have put a lot of thought into your extremely annoying post.
Get a life David and if you have anything to say for Pet’e sake put some reasoning behind it.My thoughts on Punjabi would hardly rate as gospel, Fists, but I’m not sure Punjabi will be winning very much this side of Punchestown.
If I had to write as objective a 200-word pen-pic as I could on his prospects for this season, it would be along the lines of;
“All of Punjabi’s four hurdles wins have come on clockwise tracks, but three of his four best RPRs have been recorded going the other way round. His 6l third in the Champion Hurdle last season gained an RPR of 163, 1lb short of his best ever for winning the Punchestown Champion Hurdle next time out (2m, gd), but that staying-on-but-never-a-threat performance might just add credence to Mark Howards’s suggestion in One Jump Ahead that he needs a flatter track to convert chances (even though he can put up near-PBs on undulating tracks).
Further, both Punchestown wins (he won the G1 4yo champion race in 2007 also) were gained by leading before entering the straight and hanging on for dear life (his Ludlow debut win was in the bag three out, and he was gifted 20l at the start in a bizarre 07 renewal of the Adonis Hurdle). Flat track or not, how many animals really pull off a feat like that in a handicap as ultra-competitive as the Gold Trophy?”
HTH,
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
I thought he improved bundles last season and if he keeps doing so could shock everyone.
However, you are probably right about the flatter track and he may just be hort of Champion Hurdle class.
For that reason I think Nicky Henderson will definately train him for the Tote Gold Trophy.
Why wouldn’t he? He carry’s weight well, he finished 2nd last season and it’s one of Nicky’s favourite races having won it 4 times in a 7 year period.
To say he is incapapble of winning of top weight is a nonsense. There is no substitute for class and I doubt if the race takes as much winning as it did when it was known as the Schweppes.
To say he is incapapble of winning of top weight is a nonsense.
That’s why I didn’t say it. My concern is not the actuality of the weight he has to carry in handicaps, but rather whether he has enough in hand now to be able to grab a race like the Gold Trophy by the throat two or three flights from home and be able to hold on to the end. It’ll represent a decent achievement if he can.
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
Punjabi’s rating now according to the BHA is 163. That is fully 13 lb higher than when beaten in the race last year. And that is not taking into account that he was ridden at Newbury by a very good 7 lb claimer.
Throwaway comments such as ‘there is no substitue for class’ is the nonsense on this thread. I’d suggest in a race like the Tote Gold Trophy, ‘there’s no substitute for a well handicapped plot job’.
If you wish to take the Punchestown form literally where he recieved a much better ride than Sublimity, then that is your prerogative, but even if he is that good, I can’t see how he’s well enough handicapped to win a Tote Gold Trophy.
A quick look at the last 5 renewals and these are the Timeform ratings the winner had to run to in relation to their BHA rating
Wingman +7
Heathcote+5
Essex +5
Geos +/-0
Spririt Leader + 8So roughly you’d need to be 5 lb ahead of your mark to win such a race. Providing Punjabi turns up off his current 163, he’d probably need to run to something like 168 ish on the Tf scale to be successful. He’s currently rated 161 which to me looks a maximum rating. I’ll say it again, he’s got no chance in the Tote Gold Trophy.
I’ve seen some massive touches in the Schweppes in my time. Bootlaces was a classic, Hill House one of the Ryan Price brigade who were all gambled of the boards. But there have been more than a few class horses who have won or gone very close. Persian War fighting of Major Rose, Snowtown Boy of Fred Winters was just beaten by Bootlaces, Within the Law carried 11 stone plus to victory, Deep Sensation was a class act who defied the handicapper as did Grey Salute and Make a Stand who were thought by many to be badly in.
The truth is the Tote/Schweepes suits horses who love galloping tracks and all sorts win it. There have been a lot more plots went wrong than were succesful and you should keep ithat in mind.
I still say Nicky Henderson will send Punjabi for the Tote and he will take all the beating. The race is tailor made for him and they can’t give him much more weight than he carried last season. There may be a few who would be well in if there were no minimum weight but there is so it could be your theory doesn’t hold as much water as you might think David. With Felix in the saddle again I will be having a few quid on first chance I get.
Fists, it’s not the fact that Punjabi will have to hump 11-12 at Newbury that’s the issue. It’s weight that he’ll have to concede to more progressive horses from a rating in the 160’s that’s likley to be his undoing.
The race is a graveyard for top-weights for a reason.
I will again be paying very close attention to Moore horses in any big field handicap hurdle. In particular Mon Michele.
Save your breath Grassy, Fists of Fury is from an era that has little understanding of handicap marks and sees ratings only through weight carried in saddle rather than what it translates to.
- Total Posts 17716
The jumps season has started again, the ego is as big as ever and the Fist-bashing begins in earnest. Love it.
Just thought of one today, Money Trix must be well ahead of the handicappers, as he didnt look anywhere near 100% when he won last season, hope hes good and well for a decent campaign.
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