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In numerical terms since 2003 Ferdy has actually had more winners in November (84) than March (59) and April (53). All month’s return a 13% strike rate. However the sp loss in November is 148 and it’s nowhere near that in March and April so from a punting perspective those are the months to focus on.
Problem is that everyone else knows this too and sorting the wheat from the chaff in the spring is even harder than it was say 5 years ago.
Ferdy’s problem in autumn 2011 was most of the horses were wrong and ran accordingly. I see he had 2 winners today so possibly he is turning the corner. The main problem is a lot of his horses are overbet pure and simply due to who the trainer is.
Yes and ironically it’s the drifters who win, not the steamers. If you see a Ferdy horse getting backed, unlikely he’ll win.
Poor Ferdy cannot win in your eyes Zarkava. In your post of 21.55 you claim that effectively that he is manipulating handicap marks to land gambles, then state the contrary at 01.22 by stating that it is the drifters and not the steamers that win.
If , as some posters imply (and you are not on your own, on this and other threads), the horses ratings are being so manipulated, would you generally not expect a high proportion of unplaced finishes ?. I would suggest so.
However the opposite is actually true. So far this season only 12 winners, but another 56 placed second or third out of a total of only 221 runners. Hardly a masterful modus operandi to reduce handicap ratings I would suggest.
Having said all that Ferdy does certainly know how to land a gamble if the opportunity arises.
I think that he gets an unfair amount of criticism from time to time from certain posters, and I have always found him to be charming, informative and helpful when I have talked to him.Sorry guys but the timings on the previous posts that I was referring to by Zarkava, may read 19.55 not 21.55, and 23.22 and not 01.22. Don’t know what is wrong with my laptop, lol
Coggy, every bit of Betfair data referring to % of drifters and steamers winning will confirm exactly what I’ve said – Ferdy’s drifters have a very high winning rate, whereas his steamers have a very low one.
I’m all for what Ferdy does. There seems to be a feeling that I’m anti-Ferdy. Not at all. He completely shows British racing up for how ridiculous and farcical it can be. I merrily support him on his quest to win a bollock load of money from a broken system run by the very person who profits from it.
I agree with you on that Zarkava (and generally on the majority of your posts).
Whilst we have handicap racing it will always be able to be manipulated.
Ferdy is one of the best, if the opportunity arises, then he will use it.
I can think of many others who may use less reputable tactics.
I would guess that Ferdy is a good man to consider having a horse with.
Incidentally it looks like Malolm Denmark has transferred a few there also.The opportunity to win a race and land a touch by running a horse at the wrong trip is open to every single trainer. Spotting it with a seasoned campaigner is easy, getting it right with a newcomer isn’t so easy.
Sir Mark Prescott gets it right 8 times out of 10 the man is a genius and makes it look easy, others have tried but more fail than succeed.
Agree or disagree with it nothing can be done to change it. You simply can’t tell a trainer you can’t run over 6f and 1m 5f the next.
Ferdy is and always has been a great believer in letting a horse tell him when he’s ready. He and Barney Curley have one thing in common and it’s patience an don’t rush horses. It can be conceived as cheating but to them it’s common sense not to push a horse who’s not ready to be pushed.
They never break the rules they just bend them a little and when the horse shows marked improvement they have a good punt.
Don’t all win. He got his fingers burned at Hexam and again at Newcastle with Sophonie then it won yesterday unbacked by the looks of things.
Talking of horses running over the wrong trip.
Trenchant is declared to run in the 3-45 at Wincanton over 2 miles. If that is its right trip then Alan King its previous trainer as being campaigning it over the wrong trip since November 2009.
Bob Buckler must know sonething that Alan King didn’t
LOLTrenchant always struck as a lazy horse rather than not being fast enough for two miles, he won the Dovecote novice hurdle and 2 miles round Kempton is plenty sharp enough! Imagine they will be quite forceful with him tomorrow and with Falcon Island in the race also should zip round at a good pace providing its on!
correct me if im wrong but did i not hear somewhere this season that paul nicholls said hes never had kauto as fit as he has had him this season, as there has never been any need to or something? which purely explains the immense physique the horse had this season, along with back to best form?
The only people allowed to use the course as a training track in Ireland are those who don’t need to do so because of their expansive training facilities.But pity the permit holder or the one horse trainer found using the track to traine their horse.Seems absurd and it is.Ballydoyle use the track to train but then I suppose Coolmore actually own the tracks in Ireland.In the US the tracks are where everyone trains their horses.Training centers should be available in central locations where trainers coulkd box their horses during the winter months to be able to get them fit.Not unlike the driving range for golfers.
There’s no way Fame and Glory was running on his merits on his penultimate run before he won at Ascot on his final run of last season.
He got beaten twice at short odds before he hosed up at Ascot. The first time, OK, maybe the ground/trip (maybe)…but the second time?
I rarely rant about such things but did at the time as there seemed NO explanation as to why he ran so poorly prior to Ascot romp. (perhaps to inflate his price for Ascot?
)Even jockey Jamie Spencer was very surprised at the horse’s form turnaround.
And this was such an honest trainer – Aiden O’Brien.
Zip
Just found these comments from the trainer post-race on:
http://www.britishchampionsseries.com/n … ascot.html
A delighted O’Brien said: “It is very special to win here. Everybody knew that his big, main issue this year was the Ascot Gold Cup here and we trained him very hard for that. He was so courageous and gave it all that day, so in respect to the horse, we had to give him a break and be kind and gentle to him afterwards. We chased him hard for the Gold Cup and you don’t want to do that twice to a horse.
“
He had his two lovely runs after but we left a little bit for today.
He has so much class and when he needed it to day it was there – Jamie gave him a marvellous ride. It’s great to be back here, it’s a great meeting and it’s great timing.
“He is a horse that had a mile and a quarter class – Group One winner – and he’s a two and a half-mile Gold Cup winner, so stamina is not a bother for him as he showed in the Gold Cup and class isn’t either. Jamie just got him into a rhythm and the rest is history, he gave him a great ride.
“After winning the Gold Cup here, you would imagine that he was on such a level of fitness for that that he probably wasn’t at that Gold Cup level today. We were hoping that he wouldn’t have to be.
Part-owner John Magnier, commented: “It was a good training performance by Aidan. When you train a horse to win a Gold Cup, you have to have them so supremely fit – it takes a lot out of them. He obviously got him back up to that level of fitness today.
Be nice to have a firm definition of what "lovely" is in Aiden O’Brien’s dictionary. Would be very helpful when placing money on his beasts in good faith.
Zip
Now, if the jockey had kindly told punters this
before
they laid into the horse twice at short odds (1/3 & 8/13) in the races he refers to…
Spencer: "We’re getting on a lot better now! He’s a great trainer and it was a great training performance. The couple of races he’d had this season were just to get him right for today and he did it easily."
Zip
Fame and Glory’s performances this season were reminiscent of that of Yeats who was only ever at his brilliant best in the best of the best races. Something I was conscious of but still bet Fame and Glory when he got turned over……
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Managed to find Spencer’s
interesting
quote from the day…(I’m surprised it’s still on sportinglife.com!)
Spencer said: "We were always going to be relatively positive, but I wasn’t sure if Darley Sun was a pacemaker for Opinion Poll.
"I decided to go on and let him use his stride.
"I don’t want to sound patronising, but how could Aidan O’Brien get him to turn his form around so much. I was so gutted at the Curragh because I expected him to win, he was odds-on favourite but he was so disappointing.
"He was electric today, it was as if he had a buzzer when something came to him.
Zip
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