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RD
The race has been won just once by a 2yo in the last 10 years – 3 times by the fav, 4 times by a former handicapper, and twice by a Steward’s Cup winner.
And how many two year olds ran in the Nunthorpe Reet?
What percentage of runners were two year olds?
Two year olds can hardly be blamed for not winning in years with no two year old runners.
What was the quality of those two year olds taking part.
Were there any as good as Bapak Chinta?Value Is EverythingWT is just giving a subjective opinion like you and I Reet.
No, he didn’t. He said
"To make any punting a success you have to price up your own market."
That, I know to be bollox!
Neither subjective, at all!ps I’m gonna have to stop teaching you new words, given your proclivity for repeating them.
Just want to rubb your nose in it by repeating those words subjective opinion.
Strangely enough Reet, I agree with you there. A punter does not "
have to
price up your own market". I certainly don’t make a book every time (most yes), especially for maidens. But knowing the percentages as odds and vice versa is if not essential, getting on for it. And having a percentage / odd in mind as your estimation of value price helps enormously in profit making.
A punter should be able to look at a bookmakers prices and immediately see every price as a percentage.
Value Is EverythingRD
The race has been won just once by a 2yo in the last 10 years – 3 times by the fav, 4 times by a former handicapper, and twice by a Steward’s Cup winner.It’s just an opinion for what its worth
BC is a very good 2yo and Requinto is no slouch neither. 2st is a lot of weight to be in receipt of, against an average Nunthorpe field.- Total Posts 17716
It’s just an opinion for what its worth
Likewise, RD, wouldn’t pretend to be a stats person, as each horse is an individual.
Certainly wouldn’t be counting the number of 2yo’s to run as a guide to how good Bapak Chinta might be.G1 sprints are indeed very different animals to those that hoof it has been winning.
I don’t follow UK racing outside of the Group races, but I have noticed a lot of horses who went close in recent big sprints (King’s Stand, Golden Jubilee, July Cup and more) were running in handicaps and listed races, sometimes against Hoof It.
Bated Breath, Monsieur Chevalier, Society Rock, Genki come to mind
From what I can gather the gap between C2, Listed, and G1 isn’t that big for UK sprints (unthinkable in jurisdictions w/ stronger and deeper sprinting ranks like down under and in Hong Kong)
Anyone looking for a value bet at a big price in the Nunthorpe could consider
Swiss Diva @ 40/1
(b365 and SJ). Been a non-runner in many Group races recently. Been crying out for a soft ground 5 furlongs. Ran better than distances suggest at Ascot, up there a long way before fitness became an issue. Started favourite in last year’s Abbeye. Expect her to start half current odds.
Value Is EverythingThe variables on a sprint like the draw, the going and notably the weight have all been defied in Hoof It’s previous 3 successes this season and I think the class of the horse has overcome all those factors. I agree those factors stop most horses to go on and win another heritage sprint straight away but Hoof Its different.
Its an obvious Group horse in the waiting and has overturned seasoned handicappers that arguably might be tougher than most he’ll face. I think its a fair price if it runs to form and not gone over.
Was Iffraaj value at 6/1 to win the July Cup in 2005 after winning a Victoria Cup and a Wokingham?
I’m sure some thought he was, finished 14th. tbf he did go on to win in group2 company which would maybe indicate that experience is the factor rather than a mere run of hcap wins? But G1 was always that small step up too far. I’ll be keeping a watching brief on Hoof It.Was Iffraaj value at 6/1 to win the July Cup in 2005 after winning a Victoria Cup and a Wokingham?
I’m sure some thought he was, finished 14th. tbf he did go on to win in group2 company which would maybe indicate that experience is the factor rather than a mere run of hcap wins? But G1 was always that small step up too far. I’ll be keeping a watching brief on Hoof It.But RD,
The form of his win in the Stewards Cup under 10 stone, is already as good as most if not all his rivals "Group 1" form. ie It was a Group 1 performance in a Handicap.
Value Is EverythingG1 sprints are indeed very different animals to those that hoof it has been winning.
I don’t follow UK racing outside of the Group races, but I have noticed a lot of horses who went close in recent big sprints (King’s Stand, Golden Jubilee, July Cup and more) were running in handicaps and listed races, sometimes against Hoof It.
Bated Breath, Monsieur Chevalier, Society Rock, Genki come to mind
From what I can gather the gap between C2, Listed, and G1 isn’t that big for UK sprints (unthinkable in jurisdictions w/ stronger and deeper sprinting ranks like down under and in Hong Kong)
its to do with the prize money that there is not much diffrence between and that why a lot of top sprinters go for the handicaps.or maybe you only have a handful of top sprinters down under and in hong kong and the handicap ranks there are crap and before you come back and say what about starspangledbanner and other horses they are group 1 sprinters and i am refering to handicap sprinters
He may well have the class to win, but given that his best form is at 6f rather than 5f, he is not good value.
In his halcyon days, Kieron would not have made such a bold statement, preferring to keep his powder dry.
I’m sure the bookies are quite happy to lay the horse at lower odds than his Stewards Cup victory whereby they can recoup their losses with interest should he not be up to the task.
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