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Posts
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not the greatest nunthorpe but hoof it has been installed at 4/1 after the owners paid the entrance fee.is the 4/1 on offer worth it?
- Total Posts 17716
Trouble with these sprints drsumo is that there are too many variables that affect the results, which is why we see the same sprinters running against each other with different horses winning. 4/1 being value is totally subjective to the individual. Once you taken the draw effect, ground, pace of race, improvement, etc out of the equasion then 4/1 might seem like value. My opinion is that the price is way too short. If fallon had not been quoted as saying hoof it felt like ‘something special’, hoof it would be double those odds. I personally stay away from punting on these type of races unless the horse in question is a front runner. This takes less guesswork out of it. Backing hold-up horses in this type of race is the proverbial ‘quick way to skid row’. The last ‘VALUE’ i had was when backing lochsong at 4/1 to win the prix de l’abbaye. Now that was value.
- Total Posts 17716
Trouble with these sprints drsumo is that there are too many variables that affect the results, which is why we see the same sprinters running against each other with different horses winning. 4/1 being value is totally subjective to the individual. Once you taken the draw effect, ground, pace of race, improvement, etc out of the equasion then 4/1 might seem like value. My opinion is that the price is way too short. If fallon had not been quoted as saying hoof it felt like ‘something special’, hoof it would be double those odds. I personally stay away from punting on these type of races unless the horse in question is a front runner. This takes less guesswork out of it. Backing hold-up horses in this type of race is the proverbial ‘quick way to skid row’. The last ‘VALUE’ i had was when backing lochsong at 4/1 to win the prix de l’abbaye. Now that was value.
WT
So much cant in the above, it’s difficult to know where to start.
Where were all these ‘variables’ when Hoof It won 4 of his last 5 races?
‘Value’ is always subjective, any horse; any price; any race; otherwise, there’d be no market. Lochsong’s ‘value’, likewise, was only proven after the race.
His racing CV is there for all to see, including his record weight Steward’s Cup win on his last outing. He’s the best horse in the race on official ratings, and he wouldn’t be ‘double the 4/1 price’ if KF had said he was a donkey.
Being a ‘hold up’ horse has done nothing to diminish his near perfect record this season – his only reverse coming when he hit the front fully a furlong from home – and his supporters are more likely to reside on Easy Street than Skid Row.
Not much guesswork either; come Friday he needs just one ‘variable’ in his favour to be a very good bet – I’ll leave others to figure that out, so he remains so.I see A(u)nte Value has been at work again.
I’d like to respond but…
Got in to trouble with Corm, apparently turning another thread in to a value debate. When defending the value concept from another very similar Reet posting. So don’t know if I am allowed to defend it here.Ahh can’t resist!
Just to say… It’s simple. After studying the form…
If a punterbelieves
Hoof It has a better than 20% chance of winning, then 4/1 is in his/her
opinion
value so should
back it
. If a punter
believes
Hoof It has less than a 20% chance of winning, then 4/1 is in his/her
opinion
not value and he/she should
not back it
.
Because (with level stakes) a 20% strike rate is needed to break even at 4/1.Well, not quite so simple – For most punters I’d advise a margin for error. ie At 4/1 a punter should back Hoof It if in his/her opinion it has a better than 22% chance of winning. (Some might want a greater margin for error).
But, I believe the original poster just wants to know if 4/1 Hoof It is value or not.
Answer (in my opinion): Hoof It has just about the best chance of winning and 4/1 Looks reasonable to me without being the best value in the race. Two year olds get a massive weight for age and Bapak Chinta looks the best value bet at around 6/1, much better than the 14.3% 6/1 represents. Might save on Hoof It on the day if he remains around the same price. Saw him at Goodwood, physically a massive horse. BTW, Hoof It shouldn’t be regarded as a "Hold Up" horse, usually tracks pace and went on some way out at Goodwood. Suspect at 5f Fallon will have him fairly prominent.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Ginger
Since whenever did you need an excuse to regurgitate the same boring old tripe?
Value is subjective
, as even your own post clearly illustrates.
Ginger
Since whenever did you need an excuse to regurgitate the same boring old tripe? Value is subjective
, as even your own post clearly illustrates.
How can it be "tripe" when we are in agreement Reet?
It is indeed "subjective", but it does exist.Any punter who does not take "value" in to account is asking for trouble. And a punter should consider backing the horse he believes has the worst chance of winning, if he believes it to be a value price.
Value Is EverythingI’m not so sure 4/1 is value. A G1 sprint and a large field heritage handicap are completely different animals.
I’d be looking at something with real group race black type in the bag. You only have to see Hoof It’s OR of 111 for the Goodwood race to see that the horse is actually a bit out of his depth in this race.
Just my opinion as always.- Total Posts 17716
It is indeed "subjective", but it does exist.
sub·jec·tive
(sb-jktv)
adj.
1.
a. Proceeding from or taking place in a person’s mind rather than the external world.
b. Particular to a given person; personal.
2. Moodily introspective.
3. Existing only in the mind; illusory.Now, go argue in a mirror, ffs.
- Total Posts 17716
At last i read someone with a basic understanding of form and the much debated ‘value’ topic. Racing Daily couldn’t have spelled it out any clearer for those of you who are still in the dark. G1 sprints are indeed very different animals to those that hoof it has been winning. To make any punting a success you have to price up your own market. Quoting percentages and fancy calculations on a bookie formed market (a la ginner t) might sound good on the forum, but wont increase your bank balance. Drsumo – these ‘non existent’ variables do exist and hoof it IS poor value. No calculator required.
It is indeed "subjective", but it does exist.
sub·jec·tive
(sb-jktv)
adj.
1.
a. Proceeding from or taking place in a person’s mind rather than the external world.
b. Particular to a given person; personal.
2. Moodily introspective.
3. Existing only in the mind; illusory.Now, go argue in a mirror, ffs.
Some nice half-truths there Reet.
Subjective –
judgment
based on individual
personal impressions
and feelings and
opinions
rather than external facts.
"Judgement"
my freind.
If a punter
is no good
at
judging
value he/she will
not
make a profit. If a punter
is
good at
judging
value he/she
will
make a profit. Simples.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
WT
And who made you the arbiter of understanding form and punting success – just like Ginger?
At last i read someone with a basic understanding of form and the much debated ‘value’ topic. Racing Daily couldn’t have spelled it out any clearer for those of you who are still in the dark. G1 sprints are indeed very different animals to those that hoof it has been winning. To make any punting a success you have to price up your own market. Quoting percentages and fancy calculations on a bookie formed market (a la ginner t) might sound good on the forum, but wont increase your bank balance. Drsumo – these ‘non existent’ variables do exist and hoof it IS poor value. No calculator required.
As reet would say, subjective opinion.
It is true that Hoof It’s Stewards Cup win came under different circumstances. 6 furlongs on good-firm ground as opposed to 5 furlongs on possibly a soft surface. As the improvement came at 6f on a sound surface it might be that he’s best under those conditions, but he does have 5 furlong form and even some on a soft surface. So also might be just as good back under softer conditions at the minimum trip. It is subjective opinion as to how much to take off Hoof It’s percentage chance of winning for the possibility of running below form under the prevailing conditions. Ran below form on a soft surface at Ascot, but was that because of the ground or stamina issues? 6f on soft at the Berkshire track a different proposition to 6f on good-firm on the Downs. My own opinion is that good-soft is a negative, soft / heavy a significant negative.
York will be in Hoof It’s own back yard and already has form at the Knavesmire.
I don’t hold the view that Hoof It is inferior just because it’s handicap form. Most, if not all his potential Nunthorpe rivals would’ve struggled to have given so much weight and beating to Tax Free and Mac’s Power. How many times have horses carried 10 stones to victory in the Stewards Cup? He improved significantly on that official 111 rating at Goodwood.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Tax Free is a reliable yardstick, granted. But hardly flying up the ladder is he. And as for Macs Power. End of discussion i think.
WT
And who made you the arbiter of understanding form and punting success – just like Ginger?WT is just giving a subjective opinion like you and I Reet.
WT thinks he’s right.
You think you’re right.
I think I am right.Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
WT is just giving a subjective opinion like you and I Reet.
No, he didn’t. He said
"To make any punting a success you have to price up your own market."
That, I know to be bollox!
Neither subjective, at all!ps I’m gonna have to stop teaching you new words, given your proclivity for repeating them.
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You made me smile if nothing else boys. But seriously, show some respect for your superiours. By the way RH, do you have an opinion on the arc or nunthorpe?? or you just waiting for Ginner T to write your replies??
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